JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/10/18

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Jay Jaffe

1:04

the SSS defensive metrics don't love Harper's 2018 work but he's generally been a bit above average in the OF corners. He's had some injury problems, and even as somebody who's been on the Harper train from day 1, I'd like to see him play at least 140 games again before I pursue him as a free agent. I also don't think he's gonna get $400 million. $300-something million yes, but not $400 million. And since it's by definition going to be a big payroll team, I don't think it's going to be a crippling blow if things go south for him. An embarrassment, potentially, but c'mon, how can his contract turn out significantly worse than those of Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury or Jason Heyward, to pick a few examples.

1:05

Harper's contract has to be like 2-3 years and then a whole bunch of options right? Harper has got to want to hit the free agent market again

Jay Jaffe

1:06

I'm more certain that there are going to be some opt outs in Harper's deal than I am about an Astro throwing a no-hitter this season. The helper monkey put down the bacon grease he was chugging to tell me that the number is 146.8%.

The Man With No Name

1:07

$22 for a Reuben???!?!?!?!?!?!? I just choked on my $9 one.

Jay Jaffe

1:09

it's, like, half a pound of meat at least. And highly impractical to eat. So yeah, I'm not paying that price again anytime soon. The one at Mile End is more like $13, and Junior's maybe $15 (for a much bigger portion). There aren't a lot of $9 Reubens in this town anymore.

Michael J

1:09

Why do Dodgers fans hate our FO? They act like it would be worth paying an aging set up man $20 mil over 2 years, even if it meant they went over luxury tax threshold.

Jay Jaffe

1:12

Have you seen that bullpen lately? I change the channel nightly to avoid it. Letting Brandon Morrow go was a mistake without getting somebody to approximate his footprint. Better to spend the money on him and offload, say, Logan Forsythe and muddle through at 2B, which is basically what they've had to do anyway.

Flags fly forever, and to a certain extent, no fan should worry about a team's payroll and profit margin more than s/he does their chances of winning the game in front of them or the World Series in the end. That said, the Dodgers' payroll was so impractically high that it wasn't hard to envision it having a very real impact on what they were able to do, because the CBA has created such onerous penalties for repeat luxury tax offenders.

Puffinstuff

1:13

where do I find xwOBA in the leaderboards?

Jay Jaffe

1:13

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/expected_statistics

David

1:13

You going to tonight's game as a member of the press or a fan? In other words, what is the go to beer at the stadium, if allowed?

Jay Jaffe

1:15

Press tonight. The craft beer situation at Yankee Stadium has been a blight, particularly compared to Citi Field, but TBF I have not had a chance to fully scope it out this year, as my only game to date was in field level, behind home plate, and the craft station was past the RF pole. SSS, ask me again in a few week.

Chucky

1:15

Your paying $22 for the ambiance of Katz’. Send a salami to your boy in the Army. No longer PC in this day of gender neutrality. Haven’t been there in awhile to be honest, do they still have the “No Tipping” sign there? And do the countermen still get pissed off if you don’t tip?

Jay Jaffe

1:16

I haven't been to the one on Houston St. in 3-4 years, so I can't tell you. They have a stall at the DeKalb Market food court just a few blocks away, and it's got no ambiance. They don't give you pickles and samples of the meat they're slicing while you wait. That's what you're paying $22 for, and if you don't tip them for that, you deserve to have hot mustard rained down upon you.

Slurve

1:17

Do you anticipate any surprises in the next 5 years regarding the HOF Voting? More toward a player getting in than the on-going debate of who will not get in...

Jay Jaffe

1:18

If I could anticipate them, they wouldn't be surprises, would they? I do think Carlos Beltran will do well on the first ballot — maybe not in, but trending towards election — but that's right at the outer edge of the 5-year window you asked about.

Wes

1:18

How do you feel about these Facebook live games? For or against?

Jay Jaffe

1:19

strongly against. I hope the ridicule and outrage against them continues.

Benny Agbayani

1:19

Is there any link between how Harvey was handled in 2015 and TOS? It's an easy line to draw but I'm not sure it's fair. Maybe TOS was inevitable?

Jay Jaffe

1:23

Generally, syndrome is a word used to describe a set of symptoms for which the causality is unclear, and I think that applies to TOS. Aside from it being the result of an unnatural high-stress activity — throwing a baseball hard — we really don't know what causes some players to get it and some not. So no, I don't know that there's a causal link there, but I do know that that's a double whammy of injuries to navigate through in a short amount of time.

Puffinstuff

1:23

Do you think the Mariners avoiding all free agent pitchers this offseason was a) inspired because the options sucked at the price points present, b) revealing of a misguided belief in their ability to draft and develop players, or c) cheap.

Jay Jaffe

1:27

I think it's more A and a bit of C than B, but as I noted in my SI.com farewell https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/02/08/seattle-mariners-free-agency they were already at a club record for payroll, and they've got a lot of money committed for the next few years.

I don't think their strong start is sustainable without better results from the guys besides James Paxton

Tucci

1:27

Are more teams batting their best hitters first in the order this year (Harper, Pham, Betts)? Or has that been a trend that I missed in recent years?

Jay Jaffe

1:30

We've seen a lot of excellent hitters moved up to 2nd in the order in recent years, and this seems to be of a piece with that. Betts had 1,459 PA at the leadoff spot from 2015-17, so it's nothing new for him

Armen

1:30

What does "BIP" mean on Baseball Sevant?

Jay Jaffe

1:31

either Balls in Play or a reference to a fun, pint-sized player from the 1980s and '90s https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1011023&position=2B/OF

Bearcub12

1:31

I know this is a talking point that's been beaten into existence over and over again, but at what point do we consider Mike Trout in the same conversation with guys like Babe Ruth? I've already started that conversation, am I premature?

Jay Jaffe

1:35

He doesn't belong in a conversation with Babe Ruth, either production-wise or in terms of cultural impact, and he never will in this age of fragmented audiences. But in the same breath as Mickey Mantle isn't ridiculous. Trout is already 8th in JAWS among center fielders and fifth in 7-year peak WAR. He could very well pass Mantle in the later over the next couple of years. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_CF.shtml

Al Gone Quinn

1:35

wRC+ Rankings: 1. Babe Ruth 197 (best of his era); 2. Ted Williams 188 (best of his era); 5. Barry Bonds 173 (best of his era); 6. Mike Trout 170 (best of his era); 7. Mickey Mantle 170 (best of his era). So yea, Mike Trout.

Jay Jaffe

1:36

And Trout is never gonna get much higher than 170, nor is he gonna bust out 1,200 innings of above-average pitching on top of his value as a hitter. Best of his era, yes. Ruthian, no.

Benny Agbayani

1:37

What kind of numbers would Ruth put up today? What kind of numbers would Trout put up in Ruth's era? I know WAR adjusts for era, but Ruth couldn't possibly be the GOAT playing in today's game, right?

Jay Jaffe

1:41

It all depends on what set of assumptions you're bringing to this. WAR tells us how much better a guy was than the scrubs of his day, which in Trout's case has to be greater than in Ruth's day given the expansion of the talent pool.

But if you were to bring Ruth into 2018 baseball, you'd probably have to assume that he'd be a different type of personality than he was in the 1920s-30s, doing the things that would maximize his career — better diet, better conditioning, less partying, access to video, etc. To pretend that he wouldn't take advantage of those things seems silly to me. Would he be as good as Bonds or Trout? We'll never know.

Justin

1:41

I mean, Trout has to catch Barry before he can think about Ruth. As a black guy I'm a little (shrugs) on pre-1947 MLB, but Barry still exists on the greats list, even if you take out the bighead years.

Jay Jaffe

1:42

I think it's absolutely fair to view pre-integration baseball with skepticism when measuring greatness. Ruth and Bonds were both products of the times that they played, for better or worse.

Brooklyn Sandwich

1:42

Fried chicken sandwich dipped in cheese sauce at the Commodore. That’s the jam.

Jay Jaffe

1:43

I don't really see the need to add cheese to fried chicken, but if it makes you happy, knock yourself out.

Rox Fan

1:44

I know there are like 22 million reasons Ian Desmond is still getting regular playing time, but come on already!

Jay Jaffe

1:46

I said this last week, more or less, whether it was here or for some radio/pod spot: i've never been able to figure out how the Rockies allocate playing time in the outfield and at first base. That said, holy hell I hadn't seen how bad Desmond was hitting (.176/.218/.360, 38 wRC+). There are pitchers who can give you that kind of production with the bat.

Alec Asher Wojciechowski

1:46

Where did Evan Gattis' power go?

Jay Jaffe

1:46

it's always in the last place you look. No, that's the car keys.

Nate

1:46

Is Trevor Bauer a dark horse Cy Young candidate at this point in the season?

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