JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 5/13/25

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 5/13/25

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Jay Jaffe

12:18

Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chat, and apologies if the non-standard start time threw anybody for a loop; I needed to take care of some business after filing today's piece a bit later than usual — a quick look at Jonathan Aranda's breakout that took me a bit longer to complete than I expected because I had colleague Davy Andrews over for beers last night as ww watched some baseball. Anyway, that should go up at 1 pm ET.

Yesterday I wrote about Javier Báez's rebound after two dismal seasons in Detroit. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-new-look-javier-baez-is-fun-again/. On Friday I took a look at some statistical anomalies within extra-innings play thus far this season https://blogs.fangraphs.com/weird-stuff-is-going-on-in-extra-innings-m...

Anyway, on with the show!

You have weakened

12:18

Your reverse-jinx powers are no match for the supernova that is Judge. I swear, every night he doesn't show up in the highlights, I'm like, well, guess he had a bad game. (Looks at last night's box score - 2-3 with a double and 2 walks)

Jay Jaffe

12:20

We're seeing one of the best runs — if not the best — by a hitter in the 21st century. He's hitting .414/.500/.783 (255 wRC+) six weeks into the season! Caught a few of his at-bats in the last couple of days and it's like he's using a pool cue out there to place the ball where the fielders ain't.

Sodo Mojo

12:20

Who ends up with more Career WAR Julio Rodriguez or Aaron Judge. I don't think Julio ever approaches Judges single season rate stats but got a 4 year head start.

Jay Jaffe

12:22

I'm gonna go with the guy who looks like he might be on his way to his third 10-win season out of four.

12:23

I'd love to see Julio get to that level, but he just hasn't shown the consistency to make me bet on him to surpass Judge even with the head start.

Thanks for the chat!

12:23

What do the yanks do at the deadline?

Jay Jaffe

12:24

They'll trade for a starting pitcher and a third baseman. They probably always were, but losing Oswaldo Cabrera in such brutal fashion last night was rough.

Longo Long Gone

12:25

Saw a tidbit in Cup of Coffee that Evan Longoria will be signing the ceremonial one-day contract with the Rays before retiring. Great career, strong argument for Best Ray in Franchise History, etc. - but probably not a Hall of Famer. Is he a One and Done case? Or does he eke out the 5% and stick around? How do you see his upcoming candidacy at this point in time?

Jay Jaffe

12:29

My hunch is that despite a borderline 58.9/42.3/50.6 line that puts him 20th in JAWS among third basemen, he goes one-and-done. He didn't make an All-Star team after his third season, won only one Gold Glove thereafter, and fell short of 2,000 hits. His Hall of Fame Monitor score of 42 really speaks to the way he did things that flew beneath the radar. It's a bit of a bummer, but I'm also surprised he didn't at least squeeze another season or two out of his skill set.

John

12:30

It's still somewhat early but is it fair to say that Breslow hasn't had a good tenure so far? Pulled back spending his first offseason, traded away Chris Sale for nothing, missed the playoffs despite Duran's MVP season, Devers' position fiasco, no path for Roman Anthony to get pt, and a .500 team 6 weeks into the season. Not a great string of moves.

Jay Jaffe

12:31

The Sale trade was more a salary dump than anything else. I've liked some of the stuff he's done, but the glut of young and talented position players they have was largely amassed by Chaim Bloom, and wow, I really don't like the way the Red Sox have handled the Rafael Devers situation, which I wrote about this spring and which Davy covered yesterday https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-red-sox-are-pulling-the-wrong-levers-w.... This doesn't become a thing without poor communication between the front office and the star slugger.

Matt VW

12:33

Would there be any downside to the Red Sox auditioning Rizzo? He has some (admittedly distant) previous history with the organization and he'd be the very definition of stopgap if he's playable.

Jay Jaffe

12:35

he didn't seem interested in playing for peanuts after a performance that, frankly, merited very little guaranteed money. If he's in shape and has changed his tune, sure, it couldn't hurt, but his decline has been so steep that I can't imagine the outcome would be particularly positive.

Phil

12:35

So, um, Houck. . . I don't even know what to ask. Would you try the bullpen? Dobbins has pitched well, and Buehler's coming back, so it's an option. Or Worcester?

Jay Jaffe

12:35

I haven't looked into what's going on there, but I think we've got somebody on Houck for tomorrow. I did see in his game log that he has two starts with 2.1 innings and 11 earned runs allowed and woof, that's just brutal .

Barves

12:36

Any idea why the Braves have Verdugo batting leadoff? It’s kind of weird how they have so much faith in a guy they signed in March as a fill in, especially since he’s not even hitting well

Jay Jaffe

12:39

Verdugo did get off to a hot start upon joining the Braves and then went cold, but we're talking about a decent 65-PA stretch followed by a 1-for-24. He is what he is, a below-average regular who has some situational uses, but right now the Braves are short of healthy outfielders because their first wave — Kelenic and De La Cruz — failed so miserably.

emh1969

12:41

I'm curious. Do you ever tire of writing or talking about the HOF?

Jay Jaffe

12:43

I don't think I could sustain the intensity of focus that I give it from November through January on a year-round basis, but I'm more than happy to write and talk about it. It's a great feeling to be acknowledged as an expert in something — particularly something that so many people are so passionate about.

Jeremy

12:43

Do you think the owners would prefer to get rid of the minor leagues entirely and outsource player development to the NCAA?

Jay Jaffe

12:46

No, because the incentives differ significantly. Colleges are there to win now, not to develop players for success five years down the road. Major league organizations want to guide their players' development and use those players to fill their needs as they arise and as the players' talent dictates.

Alex R.

12:46

For the second year in a row, the Braves offense is underperforming - particularly Harris, Albies, Olson, Riley, and certainly Arcia. Is it: a) league figured them out and they haven't adjusted; b) aging coming quicker than expected for Olson and Albies; c) none of them were as good as they thought when they extended them, and 2021 was a lucky fluke; or d) 14 months of bad mojo that will even out soon.

Jay Jaffe

12:51

I think their problem is an outfield that has collectively produced -0.7 WAR off a 68 wRC+. They've gotten less than nothing at the corners, as noted above, and I suspect some of the other players are pressing a bit to try to make up for that. The production of Riley and Olson isn't what it used to be, but it's not out of line with what they did last year. And that would hardly be a problem if Albies, Harris, and Acuña were producing.

12:53

Given the peanuts some of these guys are playing for, I don't think you can take issue with them not being "s good as they thought when they extended them." Albies is making $7 million this year, Arcia $2 million. If they don't perform, it's not a significant financial burden to replace them.

Mick Donfort

12:53

Let’s say that you become the GM of the Rockies. What’s the first thing you would do? (besides resign)

Jay Jaffe

12:53

collect every scrap of information that the previous regime collected, pour gasoline on it, and start over.

oh, first you might want to light a match and set that stuff on fire. Sorry, sequencing is an issue today.

12:54

For real, I think you need to start by completely replacing anyone involved in drafting and player development because the Rockies just haven't been getting enough good players into their system.

"Headstart"

12:55

Harper gave Judge a 5 year headstart (including his monster 2015) and he caught up. Not sure that matters for someone like this.

Jay Jaffe

12:55

A fair point.

Ryan Hall

12:56

Addison Barger: the real deal?

Jay Jaffe

12:57

he's a 45 FV prospect with a 104 wRC+ while being shielded from lefties for most of his four-week stint. I'm not sure what kind of "real" you're looking for but if you're asking if he's going to turn into a star, I don't see it.

Tug

12:57

How much fun was it to write about Javy playing well again? He is one of the guys who really reignited my baseball fandom after a hiatus there so I couldn't help but smile while reading.

Jay Jaffe

12:59

Players with extreme performances are generally the ones that catch my attention, and Javy, well, he's quite often been extreme in one direction or another. But he's so physically talented, especially on defense. Watching him make those outfield grabs like he'd been doing it for a decade warmed my heart. Definitely a fun piece to put together, and I'm glad it sparked some joy in readers as well.

Lord Thunder

1:00

How much has Ronald Acuna's HOF trajectory been affected by his injuries?

Jay Jaffe

1:01

Drastically. At this point, he's 27 and has had as many seasons worth 4.0 bWAR or more as he has ACL repairs. That's... not a good ratio.

1:03

Now, obviously Acuña has done some things that can be the foundation of a HOF case, with the MVP and ROY awards, the two 41-homer seasons and two stolen base crowns,. He's already got a 65 score on the Hall of Fame Monitor, as he's doing things that get voters' attention. But number one in all of this is staying on the field, and if he can't do that, he won't get there.

1:03

any fringe-HOF potential candidates in future that have improved their potential chances significantly so far this year?

Load More Messages

Connecting…

Tim

4:04

I’m facing a roster crunch and need objective analyses on Jose Soriano and Evan Carter; do we buy into Soriano’s FIP and see a legit chance to improve, and has the early glimpse of Carter in the early going show signs that he could stick this time?

War2d2

4:04

Hi Jay! The Cubs are reportedly calling up Moises Ballesteros while Happ is on the IL. If he keeps hitting like he has, what do you think they should do with him? A bat-first catcher with bad framing and a weak arm isn’t exactly a prime prospect, but the bat looks so good. Short term they can jettison the smoldering husk of Justin Turner, but I just don’t see a long term spot for him. How much trade value does a guy like him have?

Broken Bat

4:05

make believe: Devers to Cards and former GM Claire Bloom. RedSox get what back? Would Helsley and Contreras work? I realize both teams in thick of it, but….or would Sonny Gray and Contreras work? In early April Card fans would be open to trade, but now? If not what I proposed, what pieces would you move? To fair to both sides?

Peter

4:06

Who has more value rest of season - Logan Henderson or Cade Horton?

Jackson

4:08

Do you think the Phillies will do anything to address their CF issue by the trade deadline?

Bullock

4:14

Hi Jay, I find the WAR graphs here at fangraphs super helpful for visualizing and comparing players' careers when thinking about the HOF - you can see fast starts, longevity, hanging on too long, etc. I wanted to suggest that similar charts for other common HOF counting stats - hits, HR, strikeouts - would be cool and helpful if you might pass that on to the powers that be. Would you use such things?

Alex R.

4:16

For the second year in a row, the Braves offense is underperforming. Is it a)

Steve

4:19

hello. If Lively is out who steps in and starts?

Guest

4:19

*poke with stick* why won't Jackson jobe do the thing

War2d2

4:21

Just wanted to say that Davy is great, and his recent post about Schwarber’s helmet is wonderful.

Ozzie

4:21

It is Moises Ballesteros Day! What will the Cubs do when Ian Happ comes back if Ballesteros performs extremely well in that timeframe? If he has a 140 WRC+ or something crazy, they couldn't send him back down right?

Guest

4:23

that four year head start for Julio has him 38 fWAR behind. not a good ratio

Phil

4:24

What is your view of Roger Bresnahan?

War2d2

4:26

I love J-Rod and think he’s one of the most fun players to watch when he’s on a roll, but he sure looks like a guy that’s going to finish in that 35-45 WAR range of guys that were stars but for too short a period. I think a better question is whether or not Judge will wind up surpassing Trout.

Ozzie

4:26

Do the Cubs have a closer at this point? Who will be available at the deadline that they can grab?

Prospect Man

4:31

I realize you are not Eric, but any idea of the next prospect list drop date? I was surprised there wasn't one Friday as that was kind of the cadence lately, but then also no chat to ask either.

Guest

4:32

I am a long suffering Rockies fan who went from surviving graduate school by listening to the 2014-2019 Rockies every night, to being so disgusted with organizational incompetence that I don't even tune in anymore. I am happy that Black finally got the can, but I know Monfort is the problem. A normal organization would clean house and make outside hires in the off-season, which is a while away and this is Dick Monfort we are talking about. In the interim, are there signs to look out for that indicate organizational changes will in fact be happening? Or on the flip side, things to look out for that indicate that Monfort will continue to stick his head in the sand?

Zach

4:33

In the long list of sins against baseball the Rockies have committed, the one that drove me the craziest was the inconsistent playing time Bud Black gave to rookies and prospects over the years when the team was going nowhere. I'm hoping Schaeffer at least commits to playing Amador every day, just to see a single positive step in the right direction. Any other signals that might indicate things may get better (please I'm desperate)?

GBS42

4:34

Aaron Judge is pretty good, right? By that I mean he's very likely on a Hall of Fame trajectory.

Jeremy

4:35

What's wrong with Tanner Houck?

Weakness?

4:41

We used to say this about Trout that he'd always adjust to fix weaknesses, and this seems like what Judge did in 2022, and then again last year, and... again this year? Where do you pitch him to get him out right now?

Dave

4:44

Need a catcher in a 12 player keeper league. 10 teams. No free agents but two supplemental drafts. OBP not BA. Goodman, Augustine Ramirez, Moises Ballesteros, or Carson Kelly?

Guest

4:46

Nevermind my silly hypothetical I thought Judge and Grisham both had 12 home runs but Judge has 14

Sodo Mojo

4:47

With Kirby wrapping up his rehab and Gilbert about 3 weeks behind him what should the Mariner's be looking to do at the deadline. 3B and 2B seem like obvious targets but should they be looking to strengthen the bull pen as well.

Guest

4:48

Alex R forgot option E all of the above

4:49

Soderstrom or Tork ROS

Insert Witty Name Here

4:51

Minor issue I’ve been seeing, when pitchcom doesn’t work for some reason, should they not be allowed to stop play to fix it? They should make sure before they go onto the field that it’s working.

Joe Shlabotnik

4:52

Re: Houck, you wrote "he has two starts with 2.1 innings and 11 earned runs allowed and woof, that's just brutal." If the bullpen wasn't absolutely taxed on those game days, is this as much an indictment of Cora as it is Houck's pitching?

Sonny

4:55

One of my favorite thought experiments is to take mid-career players and sketch out a ‘rest of career’ performance that gets them to Cooperstown. The very good but not great types (Olson, Logan Webb, etc). All-Stars in their late 20s that do…something in their 30s that make them no doubt HOFers in 10-15 years. What’s the historical precedent for this archetype?

drplantwrench

4:58

is this the year that Taylor Ward finally gets traded? if so, to who/for what?

Guest

5:02

Takeaways from Cade Horton's start?

War2d2

5:05

Re: Javy, I was always sad he didn’t come up with a good two-strike approach. The biggest hit of his career was probably the one against the Giants in the NLDS in 2016, and that swing was 100% hands, no kick, and prioritized coverage and contact over power. If he’d have used that swing with two strikes more often in his career I’m guessing it adds 40 pts of career OBP. A generational talent and one of my favorite Cubs of all time, but can’t help thinking what might have been.

Rando

5:09

What is your routine to keep up to date on various baseball happenings (games, news, etc.)?

5:09

Why do people always use Babe Ruth as the example? Saw it again today in the Judge article ... Something along the lines of, you'd walk Babe Ruth if he was next up in the order. Like, it's 2025. We'd pitch to him and he'd strike out.

Guest

5:10

Xxo czc cc. Zac. Space

Guest

5:12

In hindsight could Judge have been productive if he started in the majors 1-5 years earlier? Even if he was rosterable in his early 20s would less development time have changed his peak?

Richard

5:15

Re: Braves offense: Worth noting that Olson's xwOBA is in line with his excellent 2023 and is currently running a .256 BABIP, and Riley is running a 121 wRC+ and is on pace for about 5.5WAR. Albies and Harris are another sory. t

FirstDivisionProblems

5:17

Trent Grisham needs to start every day. Would you sit Dominguez or Bellinger

FirstDivisionProblems

5:17

Trent Grisham needs to start every day

George

5:24

Why is MJ Melendez not getting called back up to the Royals. He was so clutch I don't understand why he was sent down in the first place.

5:25

Will we ever see ICE/DHS act against a MLB or MiLB player?

Andrew

5:26

Dodgers OF prospects deepest in the league?

Your Name

5:28

What would you offer Trout in the open market?

Andrew

5:29

Mike Sirota in the Top 100 next update? 3-3 1BB in High A Debut today

Guest

5:32

What would you say is the cutoff point for a DH-only-guy’s wRC+, where you’d be better off just DFAing him and using the DH slot to rest your best players?

Guest

5:32

a shame for them that none of those NYY OF can play 3B

Guest

5:32

wrights_back

5:36

Baty looks much better in the field and at the plate! Quality problem; do they flip him at the deadline for more pitching, or keep him as depth if/when Alonso leaves?

Tigers fan

5:37

Rank these 3 future HOF in terms of how they will be remembered...Ohtani, Judge, Trout?

Red Sox

5:37

Is a Mayer for Story swap realistic?

Shandy Koufax

5:38

Between playoff expansion, the end of the separate waiver trade deadline in August, the contraction of the minor leagues, it’s never been more difficult to get better during the season. Do you think organizations adjust their thinking to needing sufficient planning up front?

AL Central Casting

5:39

I mean whether they use their right or left hand to point, to either base ump.

Jason

5:39

Do you think at this point that Carroll's slump to start last season was an aberration?

Paul Eff

5:40

If you’re the Cubs, why bring up Ballesteros to be another C with the other two having great years? Is it solely to DH while Happ is on the shelf?

Henry Dodger

5:42

Have you watched Luis Severino pitch this season? It looks to my untrained eyes that he's gone away from the sinker heavy blueprint the NYM used to revive his career and returned to his power pitcher style. Is that so?

wheelhouse

5:46

not many injuries have made me feel as bad as cabrera's last night. just brutal

But still

5:47

The fact that Judge could even be considered possible to pass Trout is itself remarkable.

Colton

5:51

Cardinals have been very open about their struggles recently in capitalizing on player development but even with that they have several successes in recent memory between guys like Donovan, Nootbaar, Masyn Winn. My question is in regards to the far and away highest ceiling of that bunch in Jordan Walker. Is it because he's such a massive talent that their typical coaching points aren't setting in with him or is it just a case of player dev not being linear in your opinion? Thanks!

B.O.B.

5:52

Time to give up on Eddy Rodriguez? Great offense/defense behind him, just keeps giving up hits. Drop for Logan Henderson? (just recalled)

Edouard Boolean

5:55

Can't believe this hasn't been asked yet, what beers do two Fangraphs writers enjoy while watching baseball?

5:56

Considering almost all the sport events of 1984 are reoccurring, do you think the Tigers have what it takes to be World Series Champs? And if not, what facet of the game would hold them back from it?

Guest

5:56

There has been recent ESPN talks about Gunnar signing a $600m+ contract but as an Orioles fan, he doesn't quite fit in the Soto/Ohtani/Judge tier of players. Do you see that contract as an actual possibility or just talk

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