JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 5/13/25

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 5/13/25

Chat
Discussion Board

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Jay Jaffe

1:06

I wouldn't exactly call them fringe unless we're doing "if his career ended today" but I think Goldschmidt is really strengthening his case, and it's good to see Machado, Arenado, and Jose Ramirez off to strong starts. Chris Sale is starting to pull it together after a few rocky starts.

(Sale is the furthest off of that bunch)

Ozzie

1:08

What is the deal with Baty starting over Vientos? I get that Vientos started slow, but he has looked much better lately and he is a 30hr guy.

Jay Jaffe

1:11

The return of McNeil and the emergence of Acuña have kind of crowded the infield. Don't forget, Baty was just sent down a few weeks ago, then homered three times in two games when he finally got to play back-to-back for the first time in a few weeks. Vientos has started the last three games and gotten six hits, so he's heating up as well, though his defensive metrics have been brutal. It's a bit of a juggling act for Carlos Mendoza right now.

Jeremy

1:14

Asked Ben this yesterday, curious for your take: do you think there's a trend for GMs/PBOs running into trouble because they can only execute one plan/strategy and can't adapt to changing circumstances? Thinking of Zaidi with SF and Elias with Baltimore.

Jay Jaffe

1:18

To me, the real issue in Baltimore isn't Elias, it's Rubenstein not spending as promised. The Orioles needed to fortify their rotation this past winter, and instead they let Burnes walk and replaced him with Tomoyuki Sugano, a 35-year-old mid-rotation guy from Japan. This is a team in win-now mode and their biggest offseason addition was Tyler O'Neill.

Zaidi caught some bad breaks in SF. Losing out on both Correa and Judge after they were reported to have agreed to terms, and then not finding any other comparable stars to invest those millions... that's rough. The injuries to that pitching staff didn't help.

1:19

I'm not sure it's fair to say that both of those POBs has/had only one strategy

brad

1:20

do the dodgers have any recourse for cutting ct3? been painful to watch his struggles at the plate

Jay Jaffe

1:21

They've given him a long runway to turn things around but I suspect he's not going to make it through the season. Then again, with Conforto struggling, Teoscar and Edman injuried, it's not like they're just going to start dumping alternatives. But if a numbers crunch happens as it did last year for Heyward, I think Taylor draws the short straw

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

1:23

Boone started Grisham against a lefty. Yay, he must be a lineup regular now!...but he also sat against 2 righties last week. Huh??? Guy is destroying the baseball, what are we doing here?

Jay Jaffe

1:25

The Yankees are trying to fit four outfielders into three slots, and it's not always a simple equation as to who sits, though it's obviously not going to be Judge except on rare occasions. Grisham and Dominguez are both playing very well, and Bellinger is heating up (11x33 last 8 games). There are worse problems to have.

Jeremy

1:25

Are the Rockies going to become the pre-2016 Cubs? Plenty of fans in the stands year after year even though the team is bad year after year.

Jay Jaffe

1:26

they'll turn a profit because they have a great ballpark and aren't spending much on players but it's not like they have the lore or widespread national fan base that the Cubs do.

1:27

I honestly don't know how you start over there without selling the team, especially as Dick Monfort's son is their scouting director.

Ozzie

1:28

Is Justin Turner done? He looks pretty terrible at the plate so far and he cannot play defense.

Jay Jaffe

1:28

He's looking pretty cooked right now. I don't see a lot to mitigate the ugly slash line.

Guest

1:29

If they keep this up Aaron Judge will have the best season many of us have ever seen and Trent Grisham will lead the Yankees in home runs. Now one of these things seems unlikely but if it does happen does Grisham cost Judge a couple of MVP votes?

Jay Jaffe

1:31

not to be pedantic but Judge has the edge on Grisham in homers. There's nothing in his track record to suggest he'll sustain a 48-homer pace, and there's no way a voter is going to overlook what Judge is doing even if his teammates — Goldschmidt is hitting .350! — are having great seasons.

Smiling Politely

1:32

Is there any chance of relegation talk being taken seriously in MLB in the next 10 years?

Jay Jaffe

1:32

there's a greater chance I'll be the Playboy Playmate of the Year

1:33

i know the promotion and relegation system has its allure but it is utterly impossible to pull off within a system where even the crummy franchises are worth hundreds of million dollars and the gap in facilities between a Triple-A ballpark and a major league one is so vast.

1:34

there isn't a single owner of a baseball team or a single member of the players union who looks at promotion/relegation and thinks, "yes, that's what Major League Baseball needs"

Jeremy

1:35

Are the Guardians frauds? They're 24-17 vs. a BaseRuns record of 17-24.

Jay Jaffe

1:36

They're 8-2 in one-run games, which is how you get imbalances like that. I suspect the truth lies somewhere in the middle — they're a .500ish team with a middling offense and middling pitching.

AL Central Casting

1:37

As a kid (late 80s/early 90s), someone told me that when a home plate umpire requests help on a checked swing call, the hand he uses - right or left - is a signal to the base umpire. One hand means "make the call as you see it" and the other means "don't overrule me." It seemed true to me at the time, but again, I was a kid and I had no good way to verify it. Have you ever heard of this? Could it be true, and if so, could it really remain a secret?

Jay Jaffe

1:37

never heard that one. They're pointing to first base for right-handed batters, third base for left-handed ones because their views are less impeded.

Bullock

1:38

Do you have a player whose stats make you go, "dang, I never considered this guy a serious HOF candidate, but it's hard to deny this"? For me it's Berkman (higher wOBA, wRC+, more career Offense runs than David Ortiz while playing the field)

Jay Jaffe

1:42

Longoria sort of fits that mold, because of the solid JAWS and despite the dearth of other markers. Abreu might be in that camp as well, though his power/speed/OBP combo was flashier

Question Man

1:43

Think we'll end up seeing four playoff teams out of the NLW? Or will one of PHI/NYM squeeze out the fourth NLW team?

Jay Jaffe

1:45

I suspect we'll get "only" three NL West teams in the playoffs. Part of the reason that division looks so strong is that the teams have played fewer intradivisonal games than any other division. The Rockies have played 13, the rest only 5 to 8. They're gonna beat up on each other at some point.

Bubba

1:45

Does Judge pass Trout in WAR at some point?

Jay Jaffe

1:46

Color me skeptical. Judge has to make up another ~30 WAR, and while Trout is having epic difficulties staying on the field, there's zero chance he walks away from the millions of dollars he has guaranteed through 2030.

Chappy

1:47

Re: Fringe HOF candidates improving themselves - I don't know that he'll actually get there, but if you squint juuuuust hard enough, you can see Matt Chapman aging gracefully and getting enough love as a Defense Maestro come Hall of Fame time.

I admit that it's a long shot, but rooting for guys like that to round out their careers is as much fun as watching the surefire candidates knock down milestone after milestone.

Jay Jaffe

1:50

In Arenado, Machado, and Ramirez we've got a nice crowd of HOF-bound 3B, but Chapman is at 36.5 for WAR7 and has banked three 7-WAR seasons including one last year, with low-hanging fruit padding out that peak score. It's not out of the question he could make a late run.

I'm not so optimistic about my stealth candidate, Marcus Semien — whom I probably should have mentioned above. he's still underwater, failing to benefit from my reverse jinx powers

Annual HOF summer article

1:51

So is this the last year you bother to include Judge on the annual "what he's done for his HOF chances" list and just throw him in the intro with the Verlander types? (Not that he's at 80WAR but the WAR7 is nuts)

Jay Jaffe

1:51

we'll see ;-)

12 to 6

1:52

i have reached the point of legitimate "this might be over" with respect to bobby miller. not exactly steve blass disease, but he seems to have completely lost command and control. thoughts?

Jay Jaffe

1:54

Young pitchers get hurt all the time, alas. Some of them never get it back. I'm not ready to give up on Bobby Miller yet given the raw stuff and I don't think the Dodgers are either but he's a mess, and getting to the bottom of it — are there mental factors that are exacerbating his control issues? physical ones that he's not being straightforward about with the team? — is the next order of business

MF Luder

1:55

Maybe this has been asked before, but does Alex Bregman project to be a Hall of Famer?

Jay Jaffe

1:56

He's got the same WAR7 as Chapman, 36.5, and is a point ahead of him in JAWS, but he's further removed from his bset seasons. They both have a lot of work to do in the next few years to convince me they're on a HOF path.

Connecting…

Tim

4:04

I’m facing a roster crunch and need objective analyses on Jose Soriano and Evan Carter; do we buy into Soriano’s FIP and see a legit chance to improve, and has the early glimpse of Carter in the early going show signs that he could stick this time?

War2d2

4:04

Hi Jay! The Cubs are reportedly calling up Moises Ballesteros while Happ is on the IL. If he keeps hitting like he has, what do you think they should do with him? A bat-first catcher with bad framing and a weak arm isn’t exactly a prime prospect, but the bat looks so good. Short term they can jettison the smoldering husk of Justin Turner, but I just don’t see a long term spot for him. How much trade value does a guy like him have?

Broken Bat

4:05

make believe: Devers to Cards and former GM Claire Bloom. RedSox get what back? Would Helsley and Contreras work? I realize both teams in thick of it, but….or would Sonny Gray and Contreras work? In early April Card fans would be open to trade, but now? If not what I proposed, what pieces would you move? To fair to both sides?

Peter

4:06

Who has more value rest of season - Logan Henderson or Cade Horton?

Jackson

4:08

Do you think the Phillies will do anything to address their CF issue by the trade deadline?

Bullock

4:14

Hi Jay, I find the WAR graphs here at fangraphs super helpful for visualizing and comparing players' careers when thinking about the HOF - you can see fast starts, longevity, hanging on too long, etc. I wanted to suggest that similar charts for other common HOF counting stats - hits, HR, strikeouts - would be cool and helpful if you might pass that on to the powers that be. Would you use such things?

Alex R.

4:16

For the second year in a row, the Braves offense is underperforming. Is it a)

Steve

4:19

hello. If Lively is out who steps in and starts?

Guest

4:19

*poke with stick* why won't Jackson jobe do the thing

War2d2

4:21

Just wanted to say that Davy is great, and his recent post about Schwarber’s helmet is wonderful.

Ozzie

4:21

It is Moises Ballesteros Day! What will the Cubs do when Ian Happ comes back if Ballesteros performs extremely well in that timeframe? If he has a 140 WRC+ or something crazy, they couldn't send him back down right?

Guest

4:23

that four year head start for Julio has him 38 fWAR behind. not a good ratio

Phil

4:24

What is your view of Roger Bresnahan?

War2d2

4:26

I love J-Rod and think he’s one of the most fun players to watch when he’s on a roll, but he sure looks like a guy that’s going to finish in that 35-45 WAR range of guys that were stars but for too short a period. I think a better question is whether or not Judge will wind up surpassing Trout.

Ozzie

4:26

Do the Cubs have a closer at this point? Who will be available at the deadline that they can grab?

Prospect Man

4:31

I realize you are not Eric, but any idea of the next prospect list drop date? I was surprised there wasn't one Friday as that was kind of the cadence lately, but then also no chat to ask either.

Guest

4:32

I am a long suffering Rockies fan who went from surviving graduate school by listening to the 2014-2019 Rockies every night, to being so disgusted with organizational incompetence that I don't even tune in anymore. I am happy that Black finally got the can, but I know Monfort is the problem. A normal organization would clean house and make outside hires in the off-season, which is a while away and this is Dick Monfort we are talking about. In the interim, are there signs to look out for that indicate organizational changes will in fact be happening? Or on the flip side, things to look out for that indicate that Monfort will continue to stick his head in the sand?

Zach

4:33

In the long list of sins against baseball the Rockies have committed, the one that drove me the craziest was the inconsistent playing time Bud Black gave to rookies and prospects over the years when the team was going nowhere. I'm hoping Schaeffer at least commits to playing Amador every day, just to see a single positive step in the right direction. Any other signals that might indicate things may get better (please I'm desperate)?

GBS42

4:34

Aaron Judge is pretty good, right? By that I mean he's very likely on a Hall of Fame trajectory.

Jeremy

4:35

What's wrong with Tanner Houck?

Weakness?

4:41

We used to say this about Trout that he'd always adjust to fix weaknesses, and this seems like what Judge did in 2022, and then again last year, and... again this year? Where do you pitch him to get him out right now?

Dave

4:44

Need a catcher in a 12 player keeper league. 10 teams. No free agents but two supplemental drafts. OBP not BA. Goodman, Augustine Ramirez, Moises Ballesteros, or Carson Kelly?

Guest

4:46

Nevermind my silly hypothetical I thought Judge and Grisham both had 12 home runs but Judge has 14

Sodo Mojo

4:47

With Kirby wrapping up his rehab and Gilbert about 3 weeks behind him what should the Mariner's be looking to do at the deadline. 3B and 2B seem like obvious targets but should they be looking to strengthen the bull pen as well.

Guest

4:48

Alex R forgot option E all of the above

4:49

Soderstrom or Tork ROS

Insert Witty Name Here

4:51

Minor issue I’ve been seeing, when pitchcom doesn’t work for some reason, should they not be allowed to stop play to fix it? They should make sure before they go onto the field that it’s working.

Joe Shlabotnik

4:52

Re: Houck, you wrote "he has two starts with 2.1 innings and 11 earned runs allowed and woof, that's just brutal." If the bullpen wasn't absolutely taxed on those game days, is this as much an indictment of Cora as it is Houck's pitching?

Sonny

4:55

One of my favorite thought experiments is to take mid-career players and sketch out a ‘rest of career’ performance that gets them to Cooperstown. The very good but not great types (Olson, Logan Webb, etc). All-Stars in their late 20s that do…something in their 30s that make them no doubt HOFers in 10-15 years. What’s the historical precedent for this archetype?

drplantwrench

4:58

is this the year that Taylor Ward finally gets traded? if so, to who/for what?

Guest

5:02

Takeaways from Cade Horton's start?

War2d2

5:05

Re: Javy, I was always sad he didn’t come up with a good two-strike approach. The biggest hit of his career was probably the one against the Giants in the NLDS in 2016, and that swing was 100% hands, no kick, and prioritized coverage and contact over power. If he’d have used that swing with two strikes more often in his career I’m guessing it adds 40 pts of career OBP. A generational talent and one of my favorite Cubs of all time, but can’t help thinking what might have been.

Rando

5:09

What is your routine to keep up to date on various baseball happenings (games, news, etc.)?

5:09

Why do people always use Babe Ruth as the example? Saw it again today in the Judge article ... Something along the lines of, you'd walk Babe Ruth if he was next up in the order. Like, it's 2025. We'd pitch to him and he'd strike out.

Guest

5:10

Xxo czc cc. Zac. Space

Guest

5:12

In hindsight could Judge have been productive if he started in the majors 1-5 years earlier? Even if he was rosterable in his early 20s would less development time have changed his peak?

Richard

5:15

Re: Braves offense: Worth noting that Olson's xwOBA is in line with his excellent 2023 and is currently running a .256 BABIP, and Riley is running a 121 wRC+ and is on pace for about 5.5WAR. Albies and Harris are another sory. t

FirstDivisionProblems

5:17

Trent Grisham needs to start every day. Would you sit Dominguez or Bellinger

FirstDivisionProblems

5:17

Trent Grisham needs to start every day

George

5:24

Why is MJ Melendez not getting called back up to the Royals. He was so clutch I don't understand why he was sent down in the first place.

5:25

Will we ever see ICE/DHS act against a MLB or MiLB player?

Andrew

5:26

Dodgers OF prospects deepest in the league?

Your Name

5:28

What would you offer Trout in the open market?

Andrew

5:29

Mike Sirota in the Top 100 next update? 3-3 1BB in High A Debut today

Guest

5:32

What would you say is the cutoff point for a DH-only-guy’s wRC+, where you’d be better off just DFAing him and using the DH slot to rest your best players?

Guest

5:32

a shame for them that none of those NYY OF can play 3B

Guest

5:32

wrights_back

5:36

Baty looks much better in the field and at the plate! Quality problem; do they flip him at the deadline for more pitching, or keep him as depth if/when Alonso leaves?

Tigers fan

5:37

Rank these 3 future HOF in terms of how they will be remembered...Ohtani, Judge, Trout?

Red Sox

5:37

Is a Mayer for Story swap realistic?

Shandy Koufax

5:38

Between playoff expansion, the end of the separate waiver trade deadline in August, the contraction of the minor leagues, it’s never been more difficult to get better during the season. Do you think organizations adjust their thinking to needing sufficient planning up front?

AL Central Casting

5:39

I mean whether they use their right or left hand to point, to either base ump.

Jason

5:39

Do you think at this point that Carroll's slump to start last season was an aberration?

Paul Eff

5:40

If you’re the Cubs, why bring up Ballesteros to be another C with the other two having great years? Is it solely to DH while Happ is on the shelf?

Henry Dodger

5:42

Have you watched Luis Severino pitch this season? It looks to my untrained eyes that he's gone away from the sinker heavy blueprint the NYM used to revive his career and returned to his power pitcher style. Is that so?

wheelhouse

5:46

not many injuries have made me feel as bad as cabrera's last night. just brutal

But still

5:47

The fact that Judge could even be considered possible to pass Trout is itself remarkable.

Colton

5:51

Cardinals have been very open about their struggles recently in capitalizing on player development but even with that they have several successes in recent memory between guys like Donovan, Nootbaar, Masyn Winn. My question is in regards to the far and away highest ceiling of that bunch in Jordan Walker. Is it because he's such a massive talent that their typical coaching points aren't setting in with him or is it just a case of player dev not being linear in your opinion? Thanks!

B.O.B.

5:52

Time to give up on Eddy Rodriguez? Great offense/defense behind him, just keeps giving up hits. Drop for Logan Henderson? (just recalled)

Edouard Boolean

5:55

Can't believe this hasn't been asked yet, what beers do two Fangraphs writers enjoy while watching baseball?

5:56

Considering almost all the sport events of 1984 are reoccurring, do you think the Tigers have what it takes to be World Series Champs? And if not, what facet of the game would hold them back from it?

Guest

5:56

There has been recent ESPN talks about Gunnar signing a $600m+ contract but as an Orioles fan, he doesn't quite fit in the Soto/Ohtani/Judge tier of players. Do you see that contract as an actual possibility or just talk

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Jay Jaffe hosts a chat