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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/14/21
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Derek
2:33
I think it's mostly because the situation in the NL West has largely been discussed through the lens of the Dodgers underperforming, but can we all give the Giants some more collective love? Best record in the NL and an under the radar super fun team to watch!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
Farhan Zaidi knows what the hell he's doing, and I guess we can't rule out that Gabe Kapler does, too
Phil Houghton
2:33
Did you get to see James Kaprielian's start? Is there potential upside there in a former top prospect?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:36
I did not. Alas, the A's are at least 4th on my West Coast depth chart for viewing behind the Dodgers, Padres, and Angels. Eric Longenhagen had him as a 40+ FV guy last year and I'd assume he's still in that bin — that's a guy with a major league career, and still with a chance of breaking out.
Derek
2:36
Do you believe in Benintendi's bounceback (especially after his first week or two)? If it holds, what a strange career path already for someone who's still only 26...
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:39
eh, i don't think it's that strange. He had a terrible year that consisted of 52 PA and injuries, anybody putting much stock in that as his true level isn't anybody worth listening to. He's had two seasons with a 100ish wRC+ and two with a 120ish wRC+, and he's at 110, so this is about right where he is. Which isn't particularly remarkable in the grand scheme, but it beats washing out
MLB The Shohei
2:39
Who is your NL Central favorite right now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
Still the Brewers, whose starting pitching leads the majors in WAR. Though it will be, uh, interesting, if the two games the unvaccinated Burnes missed (and the team lost) due to his COVID infection wind up mattering in the standings.
joe
2:42
Defensive metrics like Gleyber Torres. SSS or has he become viable there?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
SSS but so was last year's -9 DRS/-5 UZR — it's just that those numbers had the weight of about 800 previous innings in the red as well behind them.
2:43
I think Torres is out of position, but I can understand the Yankees not writing him off yet
Trouble With The Curve
2:44
Clint Frazier was one of my favorite players to watch last season and it has been very sad to see him hit so poorly this year, despite all the walks. Do you see any signs for optimism for him?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:46
His rolling xwOBA and exit velo have been trending upwards from a very deep hole but his May numbers are worse than April. I think he needs a couple weeks in Scranton or at the alt site to reset
James
2:47
Does Yordan need to play defense to be truly elite?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
Depends. If you want to tell me he's an elite hitter based on his 178 wRC+ over 510 PA in the past three seasons, I'd say that the numbers mostly support that assertion, though I worry about the gap between his actual and Statcast xStats. If you want to call him an elite *player* I'd probably give you a bit of pushback, though the 5.4 WAR he's put up in that span is still pretty hefty.

I'm a bit worried about this year's 3.0% walk rate though.
2:52
taking a moment's break from baseball, I'm spinning this during my chat for the second week in a row and wondering where this band has been all my life https://drycleaning.bandcamp.com/
2:53
great postpunk riffs with the most deadpan female voice speaking surreal but memorable lines over the music.
Jonny
2:53
If Ohtani puts up 30 WAR as a pitcher and 30 WAR as a hitter, is he a Hall of Famer in your book?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
Yes.
Josh R
2:53
The Dodgers policy is to retire numbers only for Hall of Famers (with the exception of Jim Gilliam). Should they retire the numbers for Mike Piazza and Adrian Beltre in your opinion?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
Fernando first.
HOF-only for retired numbers is a dumb policy.
2:54
and failing to recognizing one of the most transformative figures in franchise history is even dumber, especially when they haven't issued #34 since he left in 1990.
Derek
2:55
Would you rather have Yasmani Grandal's 120-ish wRC+ or Willians Astudillo's 120-ish wRC+?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
Grandal's, if only because his career numbers support him maintaining a 120 wRC+ even if it's very differently shaped than .130/384/.333
James
2:56
What should the Astros do in CF? Pretty glaring hole in an otherwise stacked lineup.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
How's Cesar Cedeño doing?
2:57
Kenny Lofton: full circle?
Jimmy Wynn: possible reanimation? Check with the tech guys.
They're gonna need to find an upgrade in July if not sooner.
Nostradamus
2:58
Prediction time: Albert will/will not be a 1st ballot guy, and degree of confidence you have in your will/will not choice.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
will, and I have 99% confidence in that.
Nostradamus
2:58
Mike and Adrian are both going into the Hall anyway. And really, why should the Dodgers retire Adrian's number? Did most of his HoF work post-Dodgers.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
a fair point and there was a lot of rancor when Piazza left
Derek
2:59
Do you play fantasy baseball at all? If not, have you in the past and when/why did you stop?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
The last season I did fantasy (5x5) was I think 2010, in a Dodger Thoughts league that I won. By that point, i'd grown to dislike it, even though I was doing some fantasy writing as well. I did Scoresheet for a few years after. It felt liberating to give both of those up, mainly because I'd get so busy with work that I'd forget to tend to my team. That's not a fun way to go about it
Mork Borg
3:01
Are the Red Sox actually good?  The playoff odds are going up, but I can't tell if that's just because they've banked wins or if their baseline has changed.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:03
Their odds have gone up and those of the Yankees have come down. The two teams were a projected 10 wins apart on Opening Day, and they're now 6 apart (+2 Red Sox, -2 Yankees) https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2021-05-14&dateD...
Isolated Thinker
3:03
If you had to designate an era after the Modern Baseball Era (1970-87) and move up the Today's Game Era, where would the line be drawn after 1988?  Is it around now with the rule changes?
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