JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/14/24

Jay Jaffe

2:01

Good afternoon, folks!

2:02

Welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chat. I've got a piece up today on Jung Ho Lee and the Giants' unrelenting wave of injuries (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jung-hoo-lee-goes-down-amid-a-brutal-strin...). Yesterday I wrote about Jo Adell finally breaking through (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jo-adell-is-finally-putting-it-together/) — a piece I'd had in mind for a few weeks after a reader asked about him here in a chat!

2:04

All of which is to say that in addition to having a good time interacting with our readers in these chats, they're a good place to get an idea of what you folks are interested in, and I come out of each one with at least a couple of ideas — not all of which come to fruition, but they're still useful. So thank you for that. And now, on with the show

Shotamania

2:04

Shota has the lowest ERA in his first 8 starts (0.96) since Fernando Valenzuela way back in 1981. I'm just old enough to remember Fernando-mania. Should we be talking about Shotamania?

Jay Jaffe

2:06

As somebody whose baseball fandom was in full flower during Fernandomania — I cut his box scores out of the Salt Lake Tribune and taped them into a three-ring binder — I've thought about this comparison, and even considered doing a Shotamania piece, but Kyle Kishimoto, who's not old enough to remember Fernando, beat me to the coverage https://blogs.fangraphs.com/shota-imanaga-is-pitching-like-an-ace/.

2:10

Obviously, Imanaga is on an impressive run, with a 0.96 ERA and 2.30 FIP through eight starts. Is it a mania? I don't think it's had anywhere near the cultural impact of Fernandomania, which tapped into the Los Angeles Dodgers' original sin of building their ballpark at Chavez Ravine, which forced the eviction of nearly 2,000 Mexican-American families living there.

2:11

I do think the Cubs got themselves a great pitcher, and hope his run continues.

Justin

2:12

Hi Jay. Do you know how cwpa is calculated for a regular season game? Thanks

Jay Jaffe

2:12

I don't know offhand but I think you can get the gist of it at Baseball Reference https://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2020/09/__trashed-2/

Curtis

2:13

Is there any way to find out the weight of bat players use? or even what the span is from lightest to heaviest? Seems like years ago they swung real lumber...I wonder if or how much that has changed over time. Thanks!

Jay Jaffe

2:14

Offhand, I don't think there's anybody collecting them, and I don't think even Statcast could really tease it out. Worth remembering that some players use different bats against different pitchers, too.

2:15

But i do think the general trend over time has been towards lighter bats. Nobody is swinging the kind of war clubs Babe Ruth or Hack Wilson wielded.

Andy

2:16

How impressed are you with NYY catching situation? Wells with a > .400 xwOBA, Trevino with a 129 wRC+ and an increased emphasis on pulling fly balls. Not to mention Rice and Ramirez at Somerset

Jay Jaffe

2:17

At a time when major league catching talent seems pretty thin, the Yankees do have one of the best pairs in the majors. Trevino has bounced back nicely after an injury-marred season and Wells has been pretty solid thanks to. his plate discipline; both are good framers as well.

mmddyyyy

2:19

Which stadiums don't use real grass?

Jay Jaffe

2:20

There are currently five, those of the D-backs, Marlins, Rays, Rangers, and Blue Jays.

Half Man, Half Manzardo

2:20

Curious for your take on the Top Prospect Struggle-itis this year. (And, more specifically, if Manzardo will suffer the same fate.)

Jay Jaffe

2:24

Offense is down this year relative to last and sample sizes are small, which is a recipe for some guys struggling.

2:25

I think especially given the velocity we regularly see in the majors — which we generally don't see even at the upper levels of the minors with the same volume — it can be a lot for a guy with no MLB experience to handle

2:26

Manzardo does look like he's struggling given that 40% K rate through 20 PA, but I really think it's a mistake to jump to concusions on anybody so early.

Teaberry

2:27

The Toronto Blue Jays had a lineup last night with 4 starters who were sons of former MLB players. Has that ever been equaled or surpassed by another team?

Jay Jaffe

2:28

I'm not sure that's been equalled, let alone surpassed. The Jays can regularly field a lineup with Vlad Jr., Cavan Biggio, Bo Bichette, and Daulton Varsho so last night was hardly a fluke.

Giant Problems

2:29

Should SFG think about selling at the deadline? Looks grim for this year, doesn't it?

Jay Jaffe

2:30

Given so many injuries — not only the recent wave of position players but those to the rotation, some of which were guys they entered the year looking at as in-season additions (Cobb, Ray) — I think they're in trouble. At the same time, they're just five games below .500, and a good few weeks can erase that.

2:31

I liked what they did late this spring by adding Soler, Chapman, and Snell but all of those guys showed up looking pretty undercooked as far as prep for the season. I think that will sort itself out over time; it's too early to panic.

Kevin

2:31

Francisco Lindor is off to another relatively slow start and probably a fringe NL All Star candidate. Is there a point where you would consider Lindor's streak of missing All Star games deleterious to his Hall of Fame case, whether or not he reaches the JAWS standard?

Jay Jaffe

2:34

Eh, not particularly. All-Star selections are subjective to begin with, and we weigh them subjectively in the context of a Hall of Fame case. Lindor already has more selections (4) than Robin Yount did (3). We're talking about a guy who's 30 who's already banked five seasons of at least 5.0 WAR and a sixth thats's not far off.

I also think it's worth remembering that while Lindor may not be swinging a hot bat, he's generally always been a very good defender, which rarely gets the kind of attention that leads to All-Star selections if it's not accompanied by gaudy stats.

mmddyyyy

2:35

Barring injury, does Verdugo look like the 3rd OF for the rest of the season?

Jay Jaffe

2:36

I do think that when Jasson Dominguez is ready after rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, we'll see a fair bit of him in center field, with Judge in left and Soto in right. That will put a squeeze on Verdugo, but he's made a positive impression on Boone and the Yankees so I don't think he's going to be cast aside, nor do I think the Yankees are going to press forward with Dominguez if he doesn't look ready.

Baltimoron

2:36

I'm not convinced the Orioles have a genuine bullpen problem (top 11 in all of ERA, FIP, xFIP, K%, K-BB%), but there's a glaring swing-and-miss hole. How would you solve that problem this season?

Jay Jaffe

2:37

I'd simply wave a magic wand and fix Craig Kimbrel!

2:39

Like every other contender, I think they'll be in the hunt for relief help as the deadline approaches, and they have a lot of trading chips, which should help them get at least one impact arm.

Evan

2:39

It seems that if a team is a ways from contending and has a goal of stockpiling assets...it may not be a bad idea to basically convert a lot of your SP prospects with high end skills but glaring flaws (injury history, lack of third pitch, etc) into closers who go all out. Sure, their arm will likely blow out in a year or two, but the rate stats will be insane and some contender will surely pounce.

Jay Jaffe

2:42

I think it's hard to simultaneously be a high end prospect while lacking a quality third pitch. I can see a rebuilding team trying to benefit by moving some of their lesser pitching prospects to the bullpen sooner rather than later, but teams also know they can try this with their own pitchers rather than giving up the farm to get the latest one who goes on a roll.

Jason N

2:43

Over some beers with my buddies, kicked around some bad contract swap ideas for Bogaerts. Mike Trout came up. At first we were like “that guy’s a franchise icon - they won’t trade him” but then we remembered it’s Arte Moreno and they could save almost $12m/year. Should we make it happen?

Jay Jaffe

2:43

Among the many problems with this scenario is that Bogaerts has a full no-trade clause and absolutely no reason on God's green earth to want to play for the Angels.

2:44

Is this just another slow start in a slew of them for Alex Bregman, or is this much more troublesome?

Jay Jaffe

2:47

For a guy who looked like he might be on a HOF path early in his career, he's been trending towards "merely pretty good" for a few years. Davy Andrews did a check-in a couple weeks ago pointing out that he had made a lot of changes to his swing (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/alex-bregman-is-powerless/), so maybe there's something there.

cards fan

2:48

Watching the Cardinals implode as they have last year and this year, has it changed (to the good) your view of Molina's HOF candidacy? Not only have they suffered through a downgrade in game-calling but almost every facet of their game: running, fielding, hitting and pitching has had unexpected declines

Jay Jaffe

2:48

it's an interesting data point, but it doesn't explain why they keep hiring horseshit managers.

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