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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/16/19
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AvatarJay Jaffe
1:20
No, if he lands on the IL while playing in the majors, it's all MLB service time.
Matt W
1:22
In hindsight, maybe passing on Gio Gonzalez was a bad idea for the Mets? It's mid may and they are starting Wilmer Font in what are essentially white-flag games.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:23
Passing on Gio was definitely a mistake on the Mets' part, particularly while stubbornly insisting that Jason Vargas was a perfectly solid #5.
Jay
1:24
bless the guy who cares enough to rank the Marlins starters
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:24
I wouldn't have given it much thought except for the fact that I'm writing about them for tomorrow. They're 10-31, which means they've slipped below the Throneberry Line.
Ben
1:25
I'm glad the Cubs banned that racist fan. But how is it possible to justify banning a fan for a hand signal yet paying millions to domestic abusers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:32
It's a jarring contrast, and the Cubs have done a shit job of handling the Russell situation.

That said, one can easily see why it's happening. It costs effectively nothing, in both dollars and public opinion, to ban the fan. Releasing Russell, even if it's the right thing to do (which it is), means writing off a player who under optimal circumstances may produce $50 million to $100 million in on-field value over his next three seasons. Businesses have a tough time doing that, particularly when they know that their loss could be somebody else's gain.
William Mays
1:33
Manny Machado is just starting to hit. What was the problem, both in Los Angeles and now San Diego?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:34
Machado hit for a 121 wRC+ in LA, one point above his current career mark, and was worth 2.4 WAR in 66 games, which prorates to 5.9 for a full season. If that's a problem, I'll take eight of them to fill out my lineup, please.
1:37
As for San Diego, he started the season hitting a lot of grounders, something he's gone through before. He also wasn't getting inordinately bad results when putting the first pitch in play. I don't know that there was anything underlying that other than small-sample weirdness.
David Dodger fan
1:37
Cody Bellinger is on pace for over 13 WAR at the quarter way point. I know some regression is expected but what WAR do you think he'll end up with? at what point is it likely that he will have a historic season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:39
Well, his depth charts ROS projection is for 4.3 WAR, which is an 8-win season overall. I'd imagine the distribution is heavily in the 6-10 range with very little chance he'd go much beyond that.
AJ Preller's Godson
1:39
How soon should my godfather DFA Ian Kinsler?  Is it time yet?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:39
They signed him to a two-year deal. They're not DFAing him anytime soon.
Norman
1:40
If the Angels hang around in contention and the Indians do not, is Trevor Bauer a good target for LAA?  He'd fit within their (dismal) rotation; LAA can easily accommodate even a large 3rd year arb salary in 2020; and the LAA farm system has improved to the point where they have the prospects to complete a deal.  Or is this all just wishful thinking grounded in a sadly unrealistic dream of seeing a Trout-led contender?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:42
I don't see the Angels hanging around given their atrocity-level rotation, but given the improvement of their farm system over the last couple of seasons I think they at least have the prospects to make a big move. not sure if Bauer's the direction I'd aim, though.
Rich
1:42
The Astros' lead over 2nd place in the AL West is as large as the entire spread in the NL Central.  What team in the AL West will actually challenge the Astros first?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:42
A time-traveling version of the 2020 Astros, maybe.
Dellin's Donuts
1:42
Has the excellent, yet extremely small sample size performance, given the Yankees some potential players that can return some trade value once all the horses are back? Urshela and Maybin both can't be optioned, and would have to clear waivers before going back to AAA, and Tauchman is in his last option year, granted he's probably performed the least of the bunch. I know Urshela is the least likely to be traded with the Andujar news, but just wondering.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:45
Well, since Tauchman can be stashed at AAA and Andujar is done for the year, leaving Urshela, the question really pertains to Maybin, who's on the 8th team of his career and the 5th since the start of 2017. We're talking about 48 PA worth of strong performance, not a fundamental career turnaround, so no, i don't think he brings back a whole lot in trade.
G.O.A.T Milk
1:45
Trade Kris Bryant for Scherzer.  Thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:45
Not happening.
George of the jungle
1:46
Is Yelich in Trout's league now?  Are they 1 and 1A or is Trout still in an atmosphere by himself?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:48
I don't think we can say anybody is really in Trout's league, which isn't just to say a potential 10-win player but a player who's a strong bet to be in that ballpark on a perennial basis. Betts and Ramirez, who flanked him on the WAR leaderboard last year aren't getting anywhere close to 10 WAR this year, and Yelich had "only" 7.6 WAR last year, which is a great season but still not close to 10 WAR.
Rick
1:49
Better Hall of Fame chance: Chris Sale or Bryce Harper?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:52
Harper based upon the early start, Sale based on the career to date, but both with major concerns at this point. I think it's more likely that the healthy Harper adjusts, recovers and has a long and excellent career, where Sale's shoulder woes and velo loss suggest that his career could only be as long as his current contract.
Richard
1:52
I realize Andrelton Simmons is on pace for a HOF worthy JAWS ranking. But what if he never makes an All Star team? Could a guy get elected to the HOF if he couldn't get elected to a single All Star team?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:54
I'd be skeptical about a guy with 0 All-Star appearances getting elected but I also think that it's a slim likelihood Simmons never gets one. I'd bet that the combination of his strong play and reputation, measured against the lack of a single appearance to date, coudl get him named as a reserve as soon as this year's ASG.
Cameron
1:55
The Marlins are on pace to lose 120 games this year? Over/under that number?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:55
A topic I'll explore tomorrow.
JN
1:55
Is this Amed Rosario's breakout? xBA finally looks great.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:56
He's been more or less league average offensively but the defensive numbers are absolutely dreadful — not just his SSS individual ones but the team-wide inability to convert balls in play into outs. A topic I explored last week https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-of-team-defe...
1:57
OK folks, I've lost track of the time and have to take my ball and go home (metaphorically speaking, as my bed is about 20 feet from my desk). Thanks for stopping by for another week of fun baseball chatter!
Billy Beane
1:57
Bill and Marty Bergen are the most interesting baseball family, in my opinion. They combined for -17 WAR and 3 axe murders. Barry and Bobby Bonds are in second place with 212 WAR and 0 axe murders.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:58
LOL had to include this. On that note...
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