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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/16/23
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:03
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chat. I just published a piece on Will Smith's outstanding work, particularly since coming off the 7-day concussion injured list https://blogs.fangraphs.com/with-the-return-of-will-smith-the-dodgers-...
Yesterday I wrote about Drew Rasmussen's injury and the blow it dealt to the Rays https://blogs.fangraphs.com/after-dominating-yankees-drew-rasmussen-be...
And now, on with the show
Chip
2:04
Is Manoah cooked? He's looked pretty bad.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:07
He looked terrible last night and his numbers this season are undeniably bad. However, the guy is 25 years old and was brilliant last year, so it seems a bit early to start declaring him cooked. Obviously, he and the Jays need to fix things. For now, he's taken a detour off the road to success, not unlike dozens upon dozens of other pitchers in baseball history.
Guest
2:07
Where do you think Satchel Paige ranks among the best pitchers of all time?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:08
It's impossible to know but I prefer to think that he's easily somewhere in the top five or 10 of all time.
A Boy Named Yu
2:09
This question was a lot more relevant yesterday than today what with the Soto article that was published today, but if the Soto of the past 12 months is the new Soto, does he still make the HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:13
He's hit .239/.402/.445 which isn't pretty but is still good for a 142 wRC+. I think it's worth noting that the AVG and SLG have both lagged relative to his Statcast expected stats, including this year's .260 xBA/.521 xSLG. I think that's good enough to project him to rebound and continue progress towards Cooperstown
Brain Bruise :(
2:13
If you are the Dodgers, how do you help protect Will Smith for both the rest of this year and his career? Being behind the plate is a brutal job
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
At some point, Smith is probably going to need to transition some of his workload to DH or left field or something like that (1B and RF not being options given the long-term presences of Freddie and Mookie). There's always risk in playing a guy behind the plate but I think the Dodgers did a good job of treating his recent situation with caution; he passed a concussion test but went on the IL based on his symptoms.
Reader Plea
2:15
It feels like you and the other FG side writers are getting (or posting) a lot more fantasy questions this season. Is that true? This is a comment, but I really wish fantasy players would go to the RotoGraphs writers with fantasy questions and leave the regular baseball questions to writers like you. I would much rather get your expertise on the HoF or something interesting in today's game than how you think a second division outfielder will perform ROS.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:16
I can't speak for others but I almost never answer fantasy questions here unless I can bring them back to the realm of non-fantasy stuff, and even then only when I have a strong preference and can give a good answer off the cuff. As you note, I've got other strengths, and I try to play to those in this chat.
2:17
One thing I do try to combat that probably is more fantasy related is the notion that a player is done/cooked/washed. Manoah is a good example — he may not help your fantasy team this year based on what we've seen, but the guy has 1+ year of service time and is 25 years old, no team in its right mind is giving up on him and anybody who thinks they would probably shouldn't be allowed near sharp objects.
Reds Enjoyer
2:19
Hunter Greene's fastball has a run value of +6 so far this season. Long term, how do you think he can get better value out of a pitch he's throwing more than 50% of the time?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
i think the short answer is by developing a reliable third pitch. he's thrown his changeup just 5% of the time this year, but that included a career-high 13 of them last night against the Rockies. He's very much still a work in progress, but if he can get that changeup to look similar enough to his fastball coming out of his hand, he could be onto something.
Sam
2:22
If Aaron Judge was looking over at the dugout for signs from his teammates - why is that a big deal? Sign stealing's still legal, right? If the Jays are tipping their pitches, why are they upset like they've been cheated?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:26
The Astros' sign-stealing scandal has understandably made every team increasingly paranoid (they were already paranoid, hence the spectrum of electronic-aided sign stealing that occurred up to the banging on the can), so teams are hypersensitive about this stuff. They'e also engaged in headgames against their opponents, and loath to admit their own wrongdoing, so they may well say things like "they were cheating" to camouflage their own sloppiness or even the fact that they've figured it out themselves.

If the Yankees picked up a tell in the signs but weren't using electronic means to do so, that's permissible
2:27
The Batman
2:29
The Mariners are first in fWAR from their starters and second in fWAR from their relievers (although I believe they were first until a couple days ago). Their offense is 17th, and extremely boom or bust. There's a great team here if they can ever start hitting. What do you think their path to that is: hope for a return to life by Julio, Teoscar, and Geno; or get Trader Jerry on the phone?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
They have to get those guys going, particularly Julio. All three are lagging considerably behind their xBA and xSLG so you hope at some point the hits start falling in and the luck goes their way. that said, filling the hole at second base where what's left of Kolten Wong should be a priority if they're still in it in July, and likewise for finding a DH given that theirs have hit — and I use that term loosely — .138/.226/.225 for a 32 wRC+ so far
Pumpsie Green
2:33
At no point this season will the Mets have played more home games than road games. Same for the Blue Jays. Scheduling shenanigans, or just trivia? But it must wear on the team to defend their record with what seems like an excuse, even though it is a very real reason for a worse-than-expected record - home winning percentages are almost always higher than road.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:36
Trivia. I don't think the schedule makers have it out for anybody. At some point you just have to shut up and win, and since you're going to wind up playing as many home games as road — and thus maybe getting a slight advantage later on in the season to even things out — this all pretty transient.
Mike M
2:36
Nice piece about the Fresh Prince of L.A.  I hope he makes the All-star team this year. Tony Gonsolin returned about the same time, and that has also been huge.  But sheesh they have 8 players with WRC+ over 100, so their hitting is fine.  If Syndergaard can improve, then they should have a stranglehold on the NL West.  You (like many others including myself) had SD winning the NL west this year.  Have you changed your mind?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:37
Good point about Gonsolin, but on the other I don't see much reason for faith in Syndergaard. As for the division title, ask me after I look into the Padres for a piece later this week.
Tungsten Arm Ohtani
2:37
WAR certainly became a bigger factor in HOF voting over the last decade. What do you see as the next "thing" to become a bigger factor in voting?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:39
It's going to take awhile but I think as we get more Statcast data, we'll come up with more trusted defensive measures than the ones that are currently in use for HOF candidates.
Tungsten Arm Ohtani
2:39
Yea or nay on the new scheduling with more interleague games and more travel?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
Whoops didn't notice i answered two in a row from the same person. I am a curmudgeon on this stuff, and think that the effect of the increased amount of travel via this new schedule has not been properly accounted for — it may well be another factor in the increased number of arm injuries we're seeing, an issue that's commonly being attributed to the pitch clock
Travis
2:42
Will Strider end the season over 15k/9?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:45
Color me skeptical, because he and the Braves are going to have to manage his workload jump from last year's 134 innings, and one way to do that is through a more efficient approach than using an MLB-high 4.38 pitches per plate appearance
Alberto
2:46
Anything on Jake Bauers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:46
I'm certainly keeping an eye on him given the way the Yankees have struggled to find complements to their big guns, but let's wait until he's got more than 33 PA under his belt.
Dan
2:47
How bad does the Astros offseason look right now? Overpaying for Rafael Montero while getting nothing out of Jose Abreu and Michael Brantley. Maybe going most of the offseason without a GM was a bad idea.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:50
Not making a significant addition to the rotation to offset the loss of Verlander doesn't look too smart either, particularly given the loss of Luis Garcia to Tommy John surgery. I wouldn't count them out, though; they're going to get Altuve back soon, they figure to get Bregman going, and so on.
Maple Maddux
2:57
If healthy, what are realistic expectations for Mike Soroka? Rejoin the MLB team by the ASB? Pitch 75-100 innings?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
That sounds about right. I know things aren't going great for him in Gwinnett, though he has a 3.96 FIP to go with his 5.47 ERA. The big problem is that he's not missing many bats, even given that he's a sinker/slider guy
LFGM
3:00
The Mets have been mediocre at best this season.  The lineup is mostly the same as last season but Marte and Canha have been much worse.  They won't be a 100 game win team, but where do you see them ending up this year?  90+ wins still likely?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
I wouldn't say it's likely anymore, though it remains possible. They need both Scherzer and Verlander to be healthy and effective, if not Cy Young contenders; so far, one-quarter of the way through the season, they've gotten a net of 0.3 WAR from the pair which is <checks notes> not a good return on the $86.7 million the pair is being paid.
Alex
3:03
Tell you what, as a Rays fan I would be a heck of a lot more worried about all of these injuries if the entire AL didn't make the playoffs.  Do they have enough of a cushion that they can spend the rest of the season focusing on being healthy in October?
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