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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/16/23
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AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
no. They're in good shape, eight games ahead of the sixth-best team in the AL, but they also play in a division where every team is above .500, and they're just 6-7 against the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Orioles. Gonna have to slug it out better in the division
Brett
3:06
Can anyone explain Max Muncy's extreme streaks? He bats .100 for two weeks, then torches the ball another two, and so on
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
A lot of it in the past two years has had to do with his elbow and his mechanics. He's gone back to something he was doing to get out of a slump in the second half of last year, which I wrote about here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/muncy-is-back-to-showing-maximum-power/
Kid
3:08
Speaking of the HOF, what will it look like in 20 years given that now we start talking about guys' "decline phase" when they hit 30, versus a decade or so ago when guys would be getting long-term contracts at age 33. Very tough to see those old benchmarks - 500 HR, 3000 K, etc. - being reached with contemporary aging curves.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:11
It's a good question given the dearth of players on the horizon for many of the major milestones. We won't have as many "magic number" automatic qualifiers in the near future but I do expect guys like Harper, Machado, and Trout to get to 500 HR.
Mt Elden
3:11
Do you think Alex Bregman will ever recapture his superstar form from 2018-2019? He was great last year, but not what he was those seasons he was hitting for +30 homers
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:13
the guy had a 136 wRC+ and 5.5 WAR as recently as last year, but he doesn't hit the ball tremendously hard, and so with a less bouncy baseball i don't think we're gonna see another 40-homer season out of him.
John Olerud’s Helmet
3:13
Hello Mr Jay! Praise thee!! I’m sure this is partly my blind love of Mark Buehrle but how much better do you think he’d be in todays pitch clock era? He always pitched quick and now he wouldn’t have the batters able to step out on him constantly. I’m not saying he’d be a HOFer but surely he’d have a slightly higher WAR atleast right??
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:14
I dunno, that seems to be a bit of a leap. If every pitcher worked as fast as Buehrle, batters might be more attuned to his rhythm and him him harder, perhaps.
3:15
I don't know whether that's true or not but that's my point: we can spin all of these unprovable theories in either direction. Gives us something to argue about over beers, at the very least.
Jason
3:16
(Submitted previous part too early) Where does Zac Gallen rank among starting pitchers (not a fantasy baseball question)? I don't mean necessarily just based on this season, but at what level do you perceive him to be?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
I think he's solidifying a spot among the top 10 starters in the game, maybe even a shorter list than that given that he's looking like a Cy Young candidate.
Colton
3:18
Do you think the Cardinals shot themselves in the foot a bit for free agency with the amount of behind closed doors conversations that have become public this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:20
I don't think they've done anything to help their cause, that's for sure. I think a potential free agent might very well look at the rotation and the concentration of mid-30s talent in Goldschmidt and Arenado and decide they might be better off elsewhere — but then it's also worth remembering that the Cardinals don't play in the deep end of the pool, free agency-wise (the Contreras deal was a franchise record save for their re-up of Matt Holliday 10 years ago). It's not like the next $300 million player or $200 million pitcher is going to pick against them, it's that they won't even put themselves into the conversation for his services.
KM
3:21
What was Aaron Judge doing with his eyeballs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:21
War2D2
3:21
the changes made over the offseason (pitch clock, shift ban, etc) were nominally made to encourage more fan interest, particularly among younger fans. Do you have a feel for what the early returns on the changes are? Have you heard from anyone “in industry” if they feel it’s helped? Or is it more “the games are shorter, so people will come, Ray, people will come.”
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:25
I think there's generally a positive buzz about the shorter games and the death of the shift. Attendance is up about 7%. Not sure where things stand regarding TV ratings. But it does seem like the game is getting a bit of a boost https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2023-misc.shtml
red sox fan
3:26
Do you think Brayan Bello has the stuff to be an ace some day?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:29
Seems to be a stretch to me, but in this day and age, when player development is so malleable thanks to the feedback offered by new technologies — pitch design, swing changes, all that — I wouldn't count him out. His prospect grades include three potential plus pitches, but the's not there yet. He's got good velocity on his four-seam fastball but not much spin (6th percentile), and both it and his sinker do get hit. The changeup seems to be something special, and that's an important building block.
Un-Locke St John
3:29
Are the Cardinals trying to use psychological torture to improve their performance?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:29
i prefer to think of it as ham-handed attempts at comic misdirection
Pitcher injuries
3:30
Pitcher injuries are up. do you think the pitch clock is a major factor?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:30
I certainly think it *could* be a factor but correlation doesn't guarantee causality.
Ross
3:31
What is your level of concern for Julio? He has been really off all year. Making terrible swing decisions and chasing every low and away slider and up and in fastball off the plate.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:34
not very high. His chase, swing, and swinging strike rates are pretty much the same as last year, as are his xBA and xSLG, that despite him pulling the ball much less and producing fewer grounders.

I wonder if he's been getting too much encouragement to change — "use the whole field more," and "elevate more consistently" — when everything was working just fine last year.
Guest
3:35
Ozzie Albies came into this season saying he wanted to try and go 40/40. But it's Mid-may and he's only attempted 1 SB. What gives?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:35
I want to go 40/40 and i'm only one stolen base behind him!
3:38
I really don't know what's going on there but wonder if there's something about his foot. The Braves are running well when they do run (29-for-34 in steals) but they're a few attempts below average relative to the other 29 teams.
Farhandrew Zaidman
3:38
Do you have a clear cut favorite between OAA, DRS, and UZR? Or is it still a "look at all three for the total picture" type deal?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:38
look at the whole picture
Colton
3:38
Going along with the Syndergaard question; do you think they'll eat the money and move him to the 'pen for Bobby Miller in the next several weeks? Or does Miller have to wait for an injury to get the call? Seems like he'd be an automatic upgrade for them over Noah but it's always tough to tell.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:39
My guess is they buy as much time with Syndergaard as possible; he wasn't terrible last night and so I'd imagine he'll have a runway to build upon that for awhile.
ScottSki45
3:40
We talk about players and even trailblazers but who is your top Manager or Executive outside the Hall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:41
Deferring to the Negro Leagues experts, I think Vic Harris is probably the top manager outside the Hal; I wrote about his candidacy for the 2022 Early Baseball ballot here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-early-baseball-era-committee-candidat...
3:43
As for executives, it might be Beane, Epstein, or Cashman but it's probably too early to close the books on them. Brian Sabean? I've made the case for Buzzie Bavasi before, and think he belongs. Lots to choose from.
Marshall
3:44
deGrom and Kershaw are nearly the same age. Who do you think puts up more rest-of-career WAR?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:45
deGrom but only because he's under contract through 2027, and I expect we might not have more than another season from Kershaw after this one.
3:46
ok folks, plenty of good q still in the queue but the shoulder is starting to show some wear, so I'm going to hit the showers. thanks so much for stopping by, we'll do it again next week.
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