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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/17/18
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Andre
12:49
Would you trade Kershaw for Goldschmidt?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
No and no.
Peter
12:50
Am I the only one tired of the unbalanced schedule? I know the players prefer if it because it provides less traveling, but a balanced schedule would provide fairer chances for teams in regards to playoff chances. More teams would be able to take advantage of a weak division. And even as a Yankees fan, I am tired of Sawx-Yanks 19 times a year.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
I'm pro unbalanced schedule, and I'll make no apology. Would love an even number of teams in each division so that they could all be intradivision games down the stretch.
Rockie Dangerfield
12:52
The common wisdom is that teams have vastly superior analytics to what's available publicly.  However, the Rockies seem to think Desmond, Cargo, and Parra are legit starting options.  How does one square those two ideas?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
Like everything else in life, there's a spread of talent even at the top level, and different front offices have different skills. The ability to figure out who should play in the Colorado outfield is definitely not one of the Rockies' strengths, and i've been saying so for years.
Evan
12:53
For awhile, Kershaw/Scherzer/Kluber/Sale were clear four best pitchers in baseball. Has Verlander made it a clear five?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
Yeah, between the great bounceback in 2016 and his run with the Astros, Verlander is definitely in the mix.
Austin
12:54
In the same vain, what about a Pollock FA deal given his unflattering injury history?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:56
The elbow and thumb fractures are traumatic injuries, which is to say that they don't give me concern about chronic problems like scar tissue and a loss of cartilage. I do think he might want to consider the benefits and costs of his all-out style as it pertains to his aging body, but he's hardly the only player facing that.
daro
12:56
Should the Braves try to trade for Machado at the deadline?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
They've got the depth of talent to do so, but I assume that if they were to do this — which they should only do if they're still clearly in the hunt come July 31, and even then I'd think long and hard about the price — they would shift him back to 3B and not disrupt Dansby Swanson's development.
Ethan
12:59
Scooter Gennett has a 305/351/531 line over the last calendar year with 31 dingers...
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:59
We are living through ridiculous times.
Matt
1:00
Any idea what percentage of hall-eligible players are in the hall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:01
At the time the book was published, it was 6.8% of all players with at least 10 years of major league experience (where for HOF purposes a single game is enough to count as a season), and 16.3% of players with the practical qualifying thresholds of 5,000 PA or 2,000 IP.
Slurve
1:01
If Trout has 8-10 more years at a similar level to his current status (regression for old, etc.) can the dimwits who don't vote for him for the HOF be exposed and their future voter status be taken away?  It's egregious that there has NEVER been a unanimous entry.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:03
It's. A. Vote. I do think that the voting should be fully transparent, but you can't force somebody to vote some way, otherwise what's the point of having a vote?  

If Trout  has 8-10 more years like the ones he's just had, Cooperstown is going to be renamed Troutville and there will be a 100-foot high statue of him on Main St.
kevinthecomic
1:03
Where does Ozzie Smith fit in all time worst HOFers?  Has to be near the top, errr bottom, right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:05
FFS, we've been over this. He's a top 10 SS (8th in JAWS) thanks to his fielding and yes, his offense — including his baserunning, which was very valuable.

Gotta think about park adjustments, man. https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/12/06/omar-vizquel-hall-fame-ballot-2018
Jack Glasscock's Cup
1:07
Lindor moved down to clean-up over the past few games:  bad idea or just horrible idea?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:10
Other than "hit your best players somewhere towards the top of the lineup" I don't think about batting order much anymore, and my life is much richer because of it. That said I see no reason to ever bat Rajai Davis first, even against a lefty. Not Francona's best idea, for sure.
Austin
1:10
How do you feel about Andrelton Simmons HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:12
He's gonna need a bunch more 5-WAR seasons, which isn't out of the realm of possibility given the advances of his bat and the maintenance of his defense, SSS concerns this year aside.
Scott
1:12
People need to start comparing Vizquel to Mark Belanger, not Ozzie.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:15
Except the defensive metrics don't even suggest he was as good as Blade (the only SS with more fielding runs above average than Ozzie). I think Davey Concepcion might be the more apt comparison — very good player, some flash for sure, but possibley a bit overrated due to the quality of his teammates. In terms of the total package, Belanger is 40th in JAWS, Vizquel 42nd, and Concepcion 45th.
Matt
1:15
Why do so many people who have issue with "Why wasn't Player A unanimous" have such a hard time understanding that this is almost 100% the product of the rules of voting that require voters to game their votes?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:18
The limited ballot space is definitely one constraint. We can't know how often somebody games the ballot — the crowd of worthies was certainly big enough when Griffey was elected that we can't rule it out — but I doubt it happens that often. Then again, all it takes is one voter doing so to toss unanimity out the window. With Derrick Goold's Binary Ballot idea (yes or no on every candidate) maybe we'd finally get somebody with 100%.
Pat
1:18
I always thought the HOF should be a certain # of players per generation, not a % of players. Thought being the players added from expansion aren't HOF'ers, so really you are lowering the standard by using a % of players being HOF'ers. Thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:21
With the fall of the color line and the opening of Latin America and Asia as talent sources, the player pool has expanded more rapidly than MLB has. Going simply by % of players doesn't really work because we're now lousy with 13-man pitching staffs, and none of those relievers save for maybe a few closers is ever going to be in the same sentence as a discussion of legit HOF candidacy. IMO, it's players per team per year, as I described above, that is a better yardstick to go by.
Ethan
1:22
Do you consider Eugenio Suarez a top 10 3b?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:25
Yeah. He's not in the top half dozen (Donaldson/Bryant/Arenado/Ramirez/Rendon/Turner, order them however you want)  but there's a case to be made for him vs. Seager, Beltre, Longoria, Bregman... depending on the timeframe you're looking at.

He is not, as you asked in a different q, "Arenado light" - his glove is nowhere nearly as good.
Babe Lincoln
1:25
Are the JAWS rankings posted somewhere?
AvatarJay Jaffe
bonnie
1:27
Maybe it's because of my Cardinal-tinted glasses, but how can you think Ozzie is one of the worst HOFers ever?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:28
the only way one could come to that conclusion would be if batting average and home run totals were the criteria.
Kent
1:28
Who is the better offensive player? Didi Gregorious or Nomar Mazara?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:29
Didi, his current slide notwithstanding. He's proven that he can put together a full season as a league-average-plus hitter, Mazara has yet to do so (though I remain optimistic)
GP
1:29
Should the Reds try to trade Scooter Gennett to the Mariners for a prospect? Not only do you get a prospect, but you free up a position for Senzel, when he comes back. If you don't move Gennett, where will Senzel play? And how much of an impact bat could Senzel be?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:31
I think a trade of Scooter for a prospect is an eventuality, later this summer. So long as Senzel is battling vertigo issues, there's less urgency, and there's no reason the Reds should limit themselves to the Mariners as trading partners.
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