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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/19/20
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3rd major league
2:54
The KBO has made me appreciate how much I miss lots of contact! If you were to make a 3rd (really, 2nd) major league modeled on the KBO in the US, what type of markets, players, and pay structure would you go for? If we think of it as a AAAA league, could it work?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
The KBO and CPBL have definitely illustrated — to me, at least — the virtues of a more contact-centric game. that said, I think it would be very hard to get another league off the ground unless you're using existing minor league stadiums, because getting a ballpark built with public money is about to get even more difficult than it was before.
Andrew McCutchen Fan
2:56
Where does Tris Speaker rank among the HOFers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:59
He's third among center fielders in JAWs, behind only Mays and Cobb, though both Trout and Mantle are ahead of him on seven-year peak score. An elite player who I think gets overshadowed a bit by being Cobb's contemporary.
Joe
2:59
So you're saying you don't believe that they will lose 2 billion dollars if they have to pay players half the salary they would normally have made when they made 10 billion last year paying players for a full season and have said that gate receipts account for about 30% of total revenue? What, are you a communist?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:01
As former Blue Jays exec and MLB president/CEO Paul Beeston famously said in 2002, "I can turn a $4 million profit into a $2 million loss and get every national accounting firm to agree with me."

I'm not saying the owners won't lose money given the current situation, but I'm not taking their figures at face value.
Mark
3:05
Loved the Muppets question. I would give an honorable mention to Hoots the Owl, a hip jazz musician. His work on the 1988 special's "Put Down the Duckie" is classic. Of course there also are Bert and Ernie. (Bert: "Ernie, those sheep are tap dancing")
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:06
I was sticking with Muppet Show regulars. If we're getting into Sesame Street, it's a different ballgame, and I'm nowhere near as comprehensive when it comes to specials.
Sonny
3:06
I never thought much of Jeters defense before, but rewatching a lot of old Yankees games on YouTube good lord! Stunning lack of range in his 30s. Great hands, phenomenal hitter, not a SS
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
Jeter looked good when he got to balls, was very surehanded, and everybody — this scribe included — loved the jump throws from deep in the hole, but yeah, he didn't have a ton of range, to say the least.
WinTwins0410
3:07
Graig Nettles: He didn't fare well on the writers ballot, and a critic would of course look at a traditional metric like batting average (.248) and dismiss Graig (his 390 HRs notwithstanding).  But his WAR would argue for him rating a shot on a Modern Baseball era committee ballot.  What do you think?  As the MB committee continues to meet and induct players, will Nettles make it onto a committee?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:10
Nettles is 12th in JAWS and just 0.5 below the standard. When you consider his impact on the 1976-81 Yankees (especially the 1978 World Series) and the '84 Padres, he should be in already, but his low batting average is an impediment, and I think the fact that he won only two Gold Gloves — because Brooks Robinson had a monopoly on them, and then Buddy Bell took over — is held against him. That said, it's very hard to get enough screening committee members to focus on candidates who derive a great chunk of value from their defense. That's probably why we haven't seen Grich or Keith Hernandez on ballots, either.
Jeff
3:10
Worse for humanity: the major sports' owners or whoever the hell runs the NCAA?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:11
there's a special circle of hell for the NCAA, FIFA and the IOC, well beyond major league owners.
Tatatoothey
3:11
And we should take the players at face value? When they have idiots like Blake Snell saying "I have to get mine." Meanwhile we have 36.5 million unemployed. The players will never win this fight in the Court of public opinion and they really risk damaging the game. They should take the split, and have the owners make up the difference in future seasons.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:13
I don't see anyplace where I said we should take the players at face value. I do think that having multiple economically literate analysts examining the claims of both sides is the way to go.

I don't think Snell did the players any favors with the way he expressed himself, but I also think that the revenue sharing offer is ridiculous unless the owners retroactively give the players the split of that extra money they were making while the league's revenues were growing for 17 consecutive years.
Travis
3:13
Wasn't Tris Speaker in the Klan? or at least attended rallies? or am I misremembering?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:16
Speaker apparently told writer Fred Lieb he was a member of the KKK. Later in life, however, as a coach of the Indians, he helped Larry Doby convert from second base to center field, and became a staunch advocate for Doby. People change, thankfully.
Jeff
3:16
Are you a draft guy? Thoughts on Pete Crow-Armstrong? I found out today that his mom is almost 60, he's maybe 18, and continue to be fascinated by what money enables
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
The only thing I know about the draft, other than the fact that it's ridiculous and short-sighted to cut it to five rounds, is that potential 1-1 pick Spencer Torkelson grew up in Petaluma as a neighbor of my cousin.
Lorenzo
3:18
Don Mattingly would have easily made the HOF if he had just ____ more league average or so seasons.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:19
Mattingly only had four seasons worth 5.0 WAR, so he'd have probably needed at least a few more of those to be a solid candidate. He's 24.5 WAR short of the career standard at JAWS, so if you're assuming 2.0 WAR seasons, well, you can do the math.
The Stranger
3:21
With the news of Colon wanting to play again and Manny trying to get a look in Taiwan, it got me thinking I’d love to see a 40+ league for all the guys who can’t contribute on a MLB roster anymore but still want to play. Maybe some of those contracted MiLB teams can reinvent themselves?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:22
They actually tried something like this in 1989, but it drew less than 1,000 people per game and folded midway through its second season. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senior_Professional_Baseball_Association
Matt Klentak
3:23
on the radio in Philadelphia today they are arguing who was the "most important" player on the 08 Phillies. WAR says Utley, lack of pitching down the roster says Hamels (Also NLCS & WS MVP). The heart was Rollins. Howard was 2nd in the mvp that year to Pujols.. where do you fall on this covid-19 induced argument?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:24
It's a good question. Utley was their most potent bat by OPS+ and their best defender. He was worth 9.0 bWAR, with Rollins second at 5.5. The drop from Hamels (4.3) to Moyer (2.8) was less, but I think it'd be pretty tough to win a championship if Moyer was your best pitcher, so I can see why one would argue in his favor.
3:25
ok folks, my window for chatting today is closing. Thanks so much for stopping by and dropping a question or two my way. We'll do it again, same time next week! Until then, stay safe and sane!
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