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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/20/22
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:01
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to today's chat!
2:02
I've got a piece up today on the Blue Jays infield's underachievement this season https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-blue-jays-infield-has-yet-to-soar/. And I had a piece about Mookie Betts heating up a couple days ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mookie-betts-is-mostly-fine/
2:04
I've also got a 5 1/2 year old who just came home from school with a fever after getting Not Enough Sleep last night — thankfully everybody in the household has tested negative in the past 24 hours, which is a start — but we're going to see how long I can push this chat without interruptions. Please bear with me.
Dmitrt
2:05
Hi Jay. What should the yanks do with Chapman? And what WILL they do?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:07
They should probably give him a break from closing games until he starts pitching better; he's allowed a run in each of his past four outings. I haven't looked at his numbers closely, but I do wonder about whether his release point is off, which is something i noted in connection with last year's struggles https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aroldis-chapmans-nosedive-is-dragging-the-...
Alby
2:07
Are the majority of players in the Hall of Fame small hall or big hall guys, or are they evenly split? I know they get a vote. Do they tend to make their picks public?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:10
The Hall of Famers only get a vote when they sit on the Era Committees, which generally means only ~8 per year. The only guess I'll hazard with regards to a consensus, based on two decades of covering the elections, is that they tilt towards small Hall, as it's generally been difficult for living ex-players to get elected through the committees.
Dave
2:10
Is this just who Luke Voit is now or do the Padres have reason for optimism?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
When Voit is healthy, he is a fantastic hitter. Unfortunately, health is an intermittent thing with him, and he did just come back from a biceps injury, so I wonder about whether he's at full strength
Jimmie Foxxalorian
2:13
Now that Trevor Story is finally hitting, are the Red Sox more or less likely to trade away players who may become free agents?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:17
it's way too early to tell. I'm not even sure we'll know in a month. The expanded playoff field gives so much leeway — 83-to-87 win teams are projected to make up more than half of the third wild cards, via Dan Szymborski's model (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/projecting-a-12-team-playoff-structure/) so any team that's in the middle is going to need as much time as possible to figure out whether they're buying or selling.
B'Ryce Hammer's Luscious Locks
2:18
You don't do fantasy questions, right?

So let me sneak one in there that isn't quite fantasy. MacKenzie Gore starts 12 more games this year, T/F?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:19
Ha, good question, especially with ZiPS projecting 12 more starts ROS and Steamer 11 (but 22 relief appearances). Gore threw just 50 innings last year so I imagine he's going to be on a pretty short leash. I'd take the under on 12, but think they'll do what they can to keep him around, perhaps in the bullpen or spreading out his starts with some minor league work
Ray
2:20
Worry level 1-10 about the Robbie Ray signing at this point? Velocity down across the board and command way down compared to the breakout Cy Young last year.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
This looks a lot more like the Robbie Ray I know than the guy who won the Cy Young last year. Note that it's last year's velo that's something of an outlier.
2:23
2:24
he's a guy who's prone to command issues. When it's not great, he's got a lot of 4s instead of 3s
Alex Wei
2:25
Hey Jay! Do you see any of the Dodgers' up-and-coming minor league prospects (Bobby Miller, Miguel Vargas, Michael Busch, etc.) making a sizable impact with the big league club later on this season? (Ryan Pepiot and Michael Grove have already been called up to make spot starts, but they may not stick around too long if/when Kershaw and/or Heaney return.)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
Given the strength of the big club's roster, I think their contributions, if any, will be at the margins unless there are multiple major injuries. Pepiot's two starts and AAA assignment already suggests that he's ahead of the other starters in the pecking order. And I do think they believe they'll be getting Heaney and Kershaw back sooner rather than later.
2:30
As for the position players, this team has so much depth and flexibility. It's built to have guys like Taylor and Lux who can slide into a spot in the case of an injury
Some Guy
2:31
Which team (not the Rockies) most needs a Front Office overhaul in your opinion?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:34
The Dave Dombrowski Experience in Philadelphia isn't exactly generating strong returns, and the shape of that roster is an odd one. I am wondering about whether the Royals could use some change after reading this piece by Alec Lewis and Eno Sarris given how behind they seem to be in some areas https://theathletic.com/3260163/2022/04/20/what-are-the-roots-of-the-r...
Twenty
2:37
What’s the best way for the Brewers to improve their lineup/outfield this summer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
Maybe by trading for Kevin Kiermaier, since Cain and Taylor aren't hitting
Aaron Judge
2:38
How much does his price go up if he rocks a .950 ops all year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
Looks like we're going to see, as he's just hitting the living **** out of the ball.
2:40
The package the Yankees offered him beyond this season was seven years at $30.5 million per year. I'm guessing that gets to about $250 million either with an eighth year or a higher AAV.
Matt VW
2:40
If the Red Sox decide they want to move Bogaerts, what would the market for him be? It seems like most of the leading contenders have shortstop already figured out.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
It may well be that other teams view him as a third baseman given the general consensus of his defensive metrics.
2:43
The Cardinals stand out as a possibility, though. I wrote about their demoting Paul DeJong last week (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cardinals-run-out-of-patience-with-pau...), which now looks like it's going to mean an experiment with Tommy Edman and Nolan Gorman in the middle infield at least some of the time.
2:44
That could be rough given Gorman's defense at the keystone so I don't think we should be surprised if it doesn't last the season, or if it's just one of many lineups the Cardinals use.
Mike A
2:45
What are your expectations for Nolan Gorman? People compare him to Joey Gallo but he can hit for a bigger average than that!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:47
See the link above for updates to Eric Longenhagen's prospect capsule. I think that the initial going could be rough for Gorman given his high-strikeout tendency, and particularly under the current offensive conditions I don't have high expectations for his batting average.
Kids
2:47
My son (2) has a fever too. He's also fine and negative and home with us while we work. Good luck to you
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:48
Thank you! Our girl is napping, and history suggests she'll be fine, but the context of the latest wave here makes every cough a fraught one.
Monkeyball
2:49
Hi Jay -- Have you been hearing those loud firework-y sounds at night in Brooklyn? Super annoying. Are they from some sports venue? I thought Barclays had a roof so I'm at a loss.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:50
I have not heard the fireworks-type sound from Downtown Brooklyn, so I dunno.
Richard
2:50
Hi Jay. After Bochy, who’s the most deserving (or at least most likely) HOF manager out of Piniella, Leyland, Scioscia, Manuel and Davey Johnson?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:52
I tend to favor Leyalnd and Scioscia from that group. Longevity is a problem for Manuel and Johnson, and a lack of postseason success after 1990 is a problem for Piniella.
Nathan
2:54
Can you arrange these players from most likely to make the HOF to the least? Altuve, Machado, Stanton, Freeman, Betts, Correa, Lindor, Harper
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