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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/23/23
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:01
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my weekly chat!
I've got a piece today on the Yankees DFAing Aaron Hicks https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-yankees-have-finally-cut-bait-on-aaron...
2:02
Yesterday I wrote about the Dodgers' rotation mess in the wake of injuries to Dustin May and Julio Urías https://blogs.fangraphs.com/injuries-to-dustin-may-and-julio-urias-lea...
And last Friday I had a piece on Manny Machado's injury and struggles that was published prior to his going on the IL https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-padres-offense-is-broken-and-so-is...
2:03
I may revisit that one, there are a couple of loose ends. Anyway, on with the show...
Daniel
2:03
Ben Clemens said yesterday he thinks Outman has a substantial lead for NL ROY. Do you agree? Corbin Carroll is slightly ahead by WAR, so I don't immediately see why this would be the case.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:09
With apologies to Ben, "substantial" may be overstating the case, at least to these eyes. After all, we're talking about a subjective argument as to who is "ahead" for an awards race in a season that's not 1/3 of the way through. I do think that Outman being on the Dodgers, with their higher profile, affords him some advantages that Carroll doesn't have with the Diamondbacks, particularly in a race that has as much to do with perception as performance. That could certainly have an impact, but the two are even in fWAR (1.5) with Carroll owning a 1.5-1.0 edge in bWAR. Carroll is regarded as the better prospect and if i had to put down money at even odds, I'd still take him.
Bubba
2:09
The Mets still have their wrinkles, but the last 5 games are some of the most fun I've had as a fan.  That is all.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:13
Even Mets fans deserve a little fun, as a treat. Seriously, having Scherzer and Verlander in working order, and having Alvarez and Baty (and now Vientos) in the lineup to help improve some of the dead spots is what gives them a chance to improve upon their sluggish start.
C-Low
2:13
Why is OPS a stat that people use to judge a batter?  OBP and Slugging are not equal.  You can’t add two numbers with different denominators.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:17
it's a very quick and dirty metric that's been around now for three decades. It's largely been superseded by OPS+ and wRC+, but neither of those are something you can calculate by looking at the back of a baseball card or the stats on a scoreboard or chyron, so it has some use.

"OPS is the Masonic handshake" — MLB official historian John Thorn, on the gateway to sabermetrics, c. 2012 (and probably earlier)
Daniel
2:17
Can Acuna keep this (namely a wRC+ >170) up all season? Do you expect him to?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:20
I don't ever expect anybody to maintain a 170 wRC+ because we've seen fewer than two per (non-strike, non-pandemic) year by non-Bonds hitters during the Wild Card era.
2:23
That said, i do believe we're seeing something along the lines of what Acuña was doing before he tore his ACL, and that's a magnificent thing to behold even if the defense is a bit rougher that you'd like to see
2:25
Trader Jerry's
2:26
Over the last couple of seasons the Mariners have been excellent in one-run games. People said this was unsustainable, and this year the pendulum has swung the complete opposite way, with the Ms holding a 4-12 record in games decided by one run to this point, a big reason why they are under .500 at the moment. Do you think this swing is random variance, or can we expect to see some positive regression on this front?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
Most of what goes down with one-run records has a whole lot more to do with random variance than skill, and is largely unsustainable at the extremes. I'd expect a bit of positive regression unless, like, Scott Servais sticks to pitchers who can't hold leads
2:28
Joe Sheehan had a good piece on one-run records in the May 18 edition of his newsletter. Here's a screenshot of how the best one-run teams fared in one-run games the following year
2:29
Highly recommend if you can get your hands on it
Smiling Politely
2:30
Thx to the Pads, the Dodgers don't need to panic, but they probably need to start thinking about reinforcements to hold off AZ. You wrote about Stone and Miller coming up; who do you think they're mostly likely to look at in the trade market?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:30
I'd say it's inevitable that they will, because let's face it, Kershaw and Gonsolin aren't the most durable hurlers and they're being asked to carry the load.
oh, sorry, i didn't see the "who" part of that question
2:32
I'd expect them to look into Shane Bieber and Corbin Burnes at the top end, which doesn't mean either will be traded or that they'll make the prospect sacrifices that such a move requires.
2:33
Lucas Giolito is another name, as he's a pending free agent in a tire fire on the South Side
Mork Borg
2:33
Imagine that all winning percentages were the same at the trade deadline as they are now. What do the AL East teams try to do?  They can't all make the playoff, so which ones buy, sell, stand pat, etc.?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:35
barring ridiculously high offers, I don't think you'd see any of them SELL in the event they're dead even at the deadline because that's terrible PR; at worst they'd stand pat, but it's more likely that each of those teams makes some kind of move, because not doing so sends a message to the clubhouse: "we don't think you can do this." That's no way to run a team.
Mugghead
2:36
To paraphrase John Madden, if you've got three of something, it probably means you haven't got one of anything. I'm currently carrying Tellez, France, and Naylor at 1B in my H2H Points League. How would you rank them for ROS? Thanks for the time.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:37
without knowing the categories, I would say I judge France and Tellez to be pretty even, with Naylor a beat behind. in a fantasy context — and I haven't played fantasy in over a decade, and rarely a h2h league — i'd say Tellez if you prioritize HR, France if you prioritize AVG.
2:38
This has been "Incomplete Fantasy Advice with Jay Jaffe"
John
2:38
Could we see Austin Wells in LF this summer for the Yankees? AAA should be soon and the current options obviously uninspiring
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
If you think the Yankees are going to turn a catching prospect with 70 games at Double-A and no professional outfield experience into their left fielder in-season, I would ask you if you have watched the Yankees during the Brian Cashman era. They don't do that kind of panic move, and frankly i don't see many GMs/PrezOps who would. That's just insane.
Mordecai and Rigby
2:41
Hey, if you were a hot dog, and you were starving, would you eat yourself?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
Only as a sandwich
LetsGoDads
2:42
Are the Padres broken for the long term? Hard to see where they go with no catcher, a solid SS losing value playing 2B, an All Star 2B losing value playing 1B, a CF who cannot hit, a thin (and old) bullpen, very little minor league depth and a proven track record of NOT being able to develop talent.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:45
there are reasons to be concerned long term, as you note, but it's also worth noting that AJ Preller does love to trade, and there might soon come a point where Kim, Cronenworth, or even Tatis is dealt to fill other needs and help to reshape the roster. it could still blow up even if they do of course. But they've amassed so much talent that they still do have options to reconfigure it in interesting ways
Bob
2:45
The O's are on fire -- all while Gunnar has struggled, Grayson Rodriguez has been shaky, and impact-level prospects remain at AAA (not to mention Jackson Holliday raking in High-A). Should they go all-in beginning this year, or focus on building for next year/beyond when they could be best positioned to win it all? How do you balance their success this year with long term goals?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:47
I don't think you piss it away by NOT doing what you can to challenge for a playoff spot if you're still in it in late July, but I don't think you start trading significant minor league talent just to look busy at the deadline. I also think the two months they have between now and then is enough time to see if the team is for real or if the decision is made for them.
Tacoby Bellsbury
2:48
What do you think the rest-of-season fix for the Yankees' left field situation will be? (And should be, if those are different?)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
I expect we'll finally see some of the Judge-Bader-Stanton alignment once the last of those guys gets back, but they really do need another bat from outside the organization to prop up the position. If nothing else they really missed an opportunity to grab Jurickson Profar on the cheap in the spring when he was still a free agent.
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