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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/23/23
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
As to who they could pursue at the deadline, it won't be who you hope for.
2:52
but it won't be Joey Gallo either
homana
2:52
CHW’s pitching staff has quietly been a top-10 unit since the calendar turned to May, and Hendriks is coming back soon. They’re presently somehow just 6.5 back in a pitiful division. Would you cut bait & have a fire sale, or stay the course for now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
I think the roster needs a real overhaul, but again, there are two months before they really have to decide. If they're still an improved team in mid-July, they probably should go for it, but they do have a lot of potential to make some deals, especially if they're willing to consider trading Tim Anderson, who has a club option for next year.
Rickey
2:57
All seems well for the Braves, but i wonder whether you think Michael Harris is going to rebound? He’s just not looking right. Do you figure it’s his back, knee, or just a sophomore slump?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
I'd say all of those could be factors; back and knee problems can mess a hitter up, and it's worth noting he was well ahead of his Statcast expected numbers last year, suggesting the likelihood of some regression
2:59
Just the same, he's significantly behind those Statcast numbers this year, so I'm not sure it's as bad as it looks
Mike M
2:59
Does the balanced schedule bring us a step closer to some sort of divisional or playoff realignment?  In a world where all teams played each other equally, being a division winner doesn't mean much because the playoffs could just have the X teams with the best records.  We're not there yet, but are we heading in that direction?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
I think that expansion will bring about an attempt — perhaps not one that can gain approval of enough teams — at a radical realignment but there's always going to be a need for some amount of geographic/division-based scheduling because the travel burdens aren't equal when it comes to west vs. east.
3:03
Top to bottom, with the new schedule you have teams like the A's and Mariners traveling about twice as many air miles in a season as the midwest teams, and overall, the so-called balanced schedule has added about 7% more travel in miles
At some point, the Players Association is going to balk at increasing the travel burden without getting something in return
Maybe that's how they get a 154-game schedule at the same pay? Just spitballing.
Sean
3:04
Why is the AL Central?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:04
Man, I dunno either. They should just go their separate ways.
chet
3:05
has anything changed with jake burger? why is he so good now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
Michael Baumann was on this last month. Apparently, he got very into virtual reality stuff and an iPitch machine in addition to working on his mechanics and pitch selection https://blogs.fangraphs.com/can-jake-burger-save-the-white-sox/
TomBruno23
3:07
Wait, Paul DeJong and Nolan Gorman will not continue at a 170+ wRC+ pace all summer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
well, the Cardinals have the best fans in baseball, so maybe it will happen
3:09
On a serious note regarding the Cardinals, RIP Rick Hummel, the former BBWAA Career Excellence award winner who was beloved and respected within the game. Derrick Goold penned a wonderful tribute https://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/hall-of-fame-bas... as did just about every St. Louis-based writer who came up in his wake.
Cito's Mustache
3:10
Good afternoon, Jay! Have you spent much time using the new Pitch Modelling data at FG? I always hit a roadblock when Bot and Pitching+ disagree with each other on a guy. Instead of just abandoning my analysis there, what kind of additional context or data should I be looking for to help reach a consensus?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:13
I've dabbled a bit, sticking to Stuff+, which I was more familiar with before, rather than getting caught up in learning the nuances of two models at once. Mainly I've played around with Stuff+ and focused on year-to-year changes instead of getting too granular and digging into smaller samples.
3:15
I still think you also want to look at the trad stats and the Statcast ones to get a more well-rounded picture of how a pitcher is doing, but gaining a better appreciation for what a lost mile per hour and shaky command has on his Stuff and performance is worth appreciating
Matt Brash
3:16
He's running a 1.99 FIP and 4.50 ERA right now thanks to a .524 BABIP. Do you expect his results to improve as the season goes on?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
I don't know if he can maintain that 41% strikeout rate, so I'd expect the FIP to rise, but both that and his 3.48 xERA suggest his actual run prevention numbers should come down — he's really done a very good job of limiting hard contact, and that .524 BABIP is the biggest outlier of his stats.
Datt Mamon
3:19
Any idea what the heck has happened to Kris Bryant? Why is he not even raking in Colorado?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:19
Given injuries (especially back) and changes to his approach, he's just not hitting the ball anywhere near as hard. Baumann had a look recently https://blogs.fangraphs.com/friendships-come-and-go-and-so-do-kris-bry...
WinTwins0410
3:19
Jay, I know he died in obscurity (and worked blue-collar jobs after baseball) and has an unmarked grave and clearly wasn't remembered as a major star long after retiring, but (and this may sound like it's not a serious question but I promise you it is serious): Why hasn't there been a groundswell for Bill Dahlen for the Hall of Fame?  I get that no one living saw him play and he didn't capture the public's imagination the way other 19th-century guys did, but still -- he had a terrific career by the standards of his era.  I feel like the advanced-stats community by now would have latched harder onto his candidacy for the Veterans Committee and not let go.  (I realize the limitations of what I've just said, as I see how advanced-stats cases Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich, among others, have gotten the stiff-arm from the Committee.)
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:24
I think the groundswell has come and gone. He's been on ballots, he's been SABR's Overlooked 19th Century Baseball Legend, his JAWS is right there at number 10 on B-Ref's shortstop leaderboard (https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_SS.shtml). but he's still outside and now it's harder than ever to get him in due to the structural changes. I think he's hurt by character issues (temper, drinking, gambling) — including an allegation of domestic violence — to the extent that the Hall probably is happy he's gotten little traction.
Oaktown Blues
3:25
Any thoughts on the Glen Kuiper situation? Justified firing or overreaction?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:32
Always enunciate your words carefully lest you mess up on air in grand fashion.  

I don't think there's any room for any kind of discriminatory sentiment when you're the voice of a team, but I'm less sure that this is a Brennaman-like situation; that guy clearly knew what he was saying and was dumb enough to do so into a hot mic. Given the most innocent explanation of Kuiper getting unfortunately tongue-tied at a critical moment, I can see room for granting him leeway. I thought Negro Leagues president Bob Kendrick was very gracious in stepping forward on Kuiper's behalf.

That said, I have to wonder what else was going on behind the scenes — ranging from had there been any hints of racism to had he not treated people well — because the A's seem rather merciless in letting him go. Then again, maybe they're just using him and the situation as a distraction while they try to sneak out of town.
TomBruno23
3:33
Cardinals pick up the 12.5M option on Paul DeJong for 2024?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:33
my hunch is yes if he continues to hit (though he won't slug .627)
Big Maple
3:33
Am I back? What do the numbers say?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:35
The numbers say you have eight major league starts since the end of 2019. Glad to see you on the mound and pitching well, but let's not get too far ahead of the fact that investing hopes in you given your injury history generally leads to heartbreak
AL Central Casting
3:35
Hi Jay, do you buy the argument that a team's average runs scored per game could be significantly inflated by scoring a bunch of runs in a few games - enough to hide that they might actually be a worse offensive team than that mean would suggest? Related, is there any place that publishes the median runs per game?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:37
It is of course statistically possible for such a thing to happen. I don't know any place that publishes median runs per game but FanGraphs does publish a BaseRuns estimate that strips out the effects of sequencing (including piling up 27 runs in a game here but not scoring there) to get a better idea of a team's offensive quality. See https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=BaseRuns
Justin
3:37
when is it time to panic on Michael Harris?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:39
Depends who you are. If you're a fantasy owner who just wants to be noticed, light your hair on fire and run down the street so that we can laugh. If you're the Braves, you've signed the guy through 2030 based on 114 games of major league experience so it's gonna look pretty silly if you start to panic. Again, the underlying data shows his 2022 and '23 aren't as far apart as the slash stats say they were. Give him time and a larger sample size before doing anything rash
Ok folks, it's time for me to ice the shoulder. Thanks so much for stopping by!
3:40
We'll do it again next week.
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