JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/24/18

Jay Jaffe

12:02

Hey hey, folks! Welcome to another edition of my Thursday chat. As I'm less than 24 hours away from flying solo with a 21-month-old toddler who can channel the Antichrist, i'll be cutting this a bit shorter than usual so that I can figure out which whiskey will knock her out the longest. And with that, let's get to the questions...

John Oleruds Helmet

12:02

Mr Jay! Shine thy light upon this chat!! Grace us with thy wisdom!!!
Is it possible after Mariano and eventually Mussina and (possibly) Schilling that we may not see another pitcher inducted into the Hall until Verlander??

Jay Jaffe

12:05

The late Roy Halladay is eligible for the first time this year, and I think he's got a chance to get elected, if not this year then soon. Lee Smith will be eligible for the first time on the Today's Game ballot, and given that he broke 50% on the writers' ballot before, you have to figure he's got a shot in that format. But those two and the three you mentioned might be the only pitchers who get in until somebody currently active, and as I noted last week, Verlander is pretty much at the head of the pack now given his age and recent dominance.

Dave

12:06

Howdy! Robinson Cano seemed like an eventual shoo-in for the HOF before his PED-related suspension. What are his chances now?

Jay Jaffe

12:07

I'd say they're pretty low, but we'll see how the voters handle Alex Rodriguez when he becomes eligible in 2022. We've yet to see a previously PED-suspended player top 23.8%.

bonnie

12:08

If you were casting a baseball flavored remake of Space Jam, who would be your star and who would you pick to make up the MonStars?

Jay Jaffe

12:08

I never saw Space Jam, but i'll go ahead and say Bryce Harper seems like he'd be a good choice to star. I have no idea what the MonStars are.

Sharp

12:08

Rangers need to be sellers, but only Kela and Claudio seem to have value.

Jay Jaffe

12:09

Cole Hamels may well be the best pitcher available at the deadline, and if Adrian Beltre's healthy and willing to be dealt, he'll be a player in demand, too.

Oyster Burns

12:09

Gleyber's power surge is: __________

Jay Jaffe

12:10

Today's topic of mine http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/gleyber-torres-and-the-yankees-pursuit-... Pretty remarkable what he's doing — his 167 wRC+ leads the Yankees, and his 8 homers and .710 SLG are the team's highest this month.

Slew

12:12

Take carseat on plane for toddler. Changes the whole dynamic of their expectations about what will happen.

Jay Jaffe

12:13

Yes, I am taking the car seat. This will be her 4th flight and second in the last 3 months. She's tall for her age, though, and likely to be frustrated by being constrained. the good news is that she should hit her usual nap time early in the flight. Praying that she sleeps some

Funkhouser

12:13

Hi Jay, I asked you a few weeks ago about your favorite sandwich in New York and I just wanted to apologize for the emotional rollercoaster I set you off on. Also, would you prefer Bellinger or Vlad Jr. for the next 5 years? The more I look the more Bellinger looks unimpressive to me. Sure a .250-270 average and 30-40 homers at his age is impressive, but it also seems replaceable and prone to fluctuation, especially considering his 2017 second half performance after that absurd June. Am I unfairly down on him because Vlad looks so capable all around?

Jay Jaffe

12:14

Hey, it was a good rollercoaster. Ordered a Cuban sandwich today from a place I've never tried, so I'll let you folks know how that pans out.

12:16

As for Vlad Jr. vs. Bellinger — that's not the easiest call. Bellinger seems to be struggling a bit to adjust to how he's being pitched, and he's made a couple of dumb mistakes on the bases, but his athleticism gives him very good value on both sides of the ball, and it's not an accident the Dodgers are giving him looks in center field. Vlad's bat seems to be ready, and holy hell, I can't wait to see him hit, but nobody really thinks he can stick at third base, and moving to another position won't be trivial.

I still haven't answered your question, and maybe this looks silly in a year, but i'm inclined to bet on the 22-year-old who has established that he can be an above-average MLBer on both sides of the ball.

Sleepy

12:17

YOU NEVER SAW SPACE JAM?!?!?

Jay Jaffe

12:17

I'm 48 years old and I loathe Michael Jordan with every fiber of my being.

Bert

12:19

When does Senzel arrive in Cincy? Does he split time among several IF spots?

Jay Jaffe

12:24

As I understand it, he's resumed activity at the Reds spring training facility, and could return to action by the end of the month, but I think given his battles with vertigo, the team is going to proceed with caution. So maybe he's up next month, and maybe the team waits until July, when he's got more experience at second base and Scooter Gennett is wearing somebody else's uniform

12:26

This Cuban sandwich from Sophie's Cuban in downtown Brooklyn is well-composed but lacks acidity. Not enough pickles or mustard. 45 on the 20-80 scale.

Ted

12:27

What are the chances of Justus Sheffield joining the Yankees' rotation this year? Under normal circumstances I'd say he wasn't ready, but being in AAA on a contender that's weak on starting pitching is kind of a perfect storm...

Jay Jaffe

12:29

He did just miss a bit of time for shoulder tightness and is walking 4.7 per nine. I think the Yankees will ride Domingo German for at least a few more starts before they give Sheffield a look.

Billy Beane

12:29

Loathe MJ? Explain yourself, sir!

Jay Jaffe

12:30

I don't owe you or anyone an explanation, but being a Utah Jazz fan is one part of it — not the only one.

Paulie Walnuts

12:31

Hi Jay, thanks for chatting. Do you know of anywhere I can find BaseRuns data going back to past years? Fangraphs' page only has the current year.

Jay Jaffe

12:31

from Sean Dolinar:

We don't keep records of those standings, but an enterprising individual could calculate it. The formula is here: https://www.fangraphs.com/library/features/baseruns/

Connor

12:33

Will Ian Kinsler ever figure it out this year? Or is he just getting to old to put up the same numbers?

Jay Jaffe

12:35

I haven't looked at his Statcast data but right now, Kinsler's numbers are pretty bleak. He's 35, and it's not inconceivable he's done as a regular. Will try to take a closer look one of these days.

DraftDog27

12:35

Britton or Donaldson more likely to get QO? And if they do. Do they accept? Or do you see both being traded.

Jay Jaffe

12:36

I think both wind up being traded in July, hence no QO, but it's more likely Toronto sticks around to make a go and holds onto their guy to the end — in which case a QO is a no-brainer unless they've had to staple his arm back on

12:37

If you're a sandwich guy for lunch, what's a typical dinner?

Jay Jaffe

12:40

five popular dinner entrees from Casa Jaffe-Span:

skirt steak with home-made chimichurri
Jacques Pepin's Crusty Chicken (sometimes with the mushrooms) https://www.seriouseats.com/recipes/2009/08/jacques-pepin-crusty-chick...
blackened salmon
spaghetti with homemade meatballs & sauce
pork chops with balsamic vinegar and mushrooms

popular sides: sauteed green beans with sliced almonds, kale with pickled shallots, roasted cauliflower with garlic and lemon, roasted asparagus with garlic, roasted broccoli with garlic and lemon

Oden

12:41

Utah Jazz fan? In 1993, business acquaintance informed me i'd be meeting Karl Malone that weekend, to which i replied good, i can ask him why he felt he had to cheap shot Isiah (Pistons fan, myself) just because Stockton couldn't guard him. Three days pass, she introduces me to Malone, and as i am shaking his GIANT hand, she says to Karl that i had a question i wanted to ask him regarding the Pistons. The look in his eye changed--he knew i'd said something--and with all the courage i could muster, i said "no i didn't"...

Jay Jaffe

12:43

I grew up in SLC (1973-88) and my parents are still there — that's where I'm flying tomorrow. Malone is an intimidating dude but there isn't a Piston from that era who didn't dish out more 5x as many cheap shots as he absorbed. And fuck Isaih Thomas eternally. I don't like Jordan, but Thomas is a scumbag

12:43

This chat is lacking in ludes

Jay Jaffe

12:44

I'm not here to live up to anybody's expectations about my chats, my dude. You could easily just not read.

12:44

Who do you like better this season for SS, Chris Taylor or Gleyber Torres?

Jay Jaffe

12:45

Torres is a second baseman now and so long as Didi Gregorius is a Yankee, it would appear

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