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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 5/27/25
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
Good afternoon, folks! I hope you all had great holiday weekends here. The weather in NYC was great, allowing for a lot of outdoor time — I avoided Friday night's rain at Citi Field and caught Dodgers-Mets the next night. Wrote about Will Smith and Dalton Rushing in a piece that will be up soon.
12:03
On Friday, I wrote about the Astros' Christian Walker (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/christian-walker-hasnt-fixed-the-astros-fi...), who hit a walker-off home run yesterday. (sorry, not sorry)
12:05
if you missed "Pete Rose, Shoeless Joe, and the Hall of Fame" — the SABR roundtable I did with Rose biographer Keith O'Brien, ESPN reporter Don Van Natta Jr., and Black Sox expert Jacob Pomrenke, it's now up on YouTube here
and with that, let's chat...
KC
12:05
Mayer has looked solid so far but the Red Sox are flailing, can we expect Roman soon to try to add more offense with Bregman out for a while?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:07
no sooner had I written about a set of twists and turns in the Red Sox infield — Trevor Story's slump, Kristian Campbell's work at first base, and Marcelo Mayer's work at second (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trevor-storys-slump-and-the-never-ending-s...) than Bregman got injured, leading the Sox to try Mayer out at third.
12:09
I think there's a lane where they call up Anthony to play center, or left while Duran plays center
12:10
But with Campbell scuffling and Mayer now arrived, that's a lot of rookies whose transitions need a close eye
12:11
Wouldn't surprise me if we see Anthony sometime next month and if we see a trade later in the summer — Rafaela or Abreu —  to clear some more playing time for him.
Tony
12:11
Thinking about it this morning, with most considering Judge a Hall of Fame lock at this point, shouldn't that also basically make deGrom one, too? Or is Judge's peak compared to his peers that much higher than deGrom's compared to his?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
The problem is volume. Judge, despite his late start, has a reasonable shot at getting to HR and WAR totals that scan as HOF-worthy. DeGrom has 88 wins, 1,728 K's and 46.8 WAR, numbers that are short of a bunch of pitchers voters have bypassed in recent years, and he doesn't even have enough volume to stand out as a Koufax-like exception, as i sort of envisioned here in 2021:  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jacob-degrom-might-be-blazing-his-way-to-c...
12:14
Now, if he stays healthy and dominant for a few more seasons — stop laughing, you! — maybe the conversation shifts but he still has heavy lifting to do.
Mr. Burrito
12:15
if Rose is elected to the HOF does that pave the way for Bonds, Clemens, Palermo and others? I know not all cheating is created equal, but at least drug users were trying to win..
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
If Rose is elected to the Hall of Fame, then voters should consider the "integrity, sportsmanship, character" section of the voting rules a dead letter. One cannot possibly reconcile that requirement with a player who committed baseball's capital crime and was unrepentant during his lifetime. That said, the Hall controls who gets on the small committees, and we have ample evidence of their heavy hand in choosing voters with obvious leanings towards or against certain candidates. So I think it's going to be very hard for Bonds et al to have the kind of favorable panels that could lead to their election (I think it will be hard for Rose too, as noted in that roundtable and my other coverage; https://blogs.fangraphs.com/say-it-aint-so-commissioner-manfred-posthu...)
Dan Norman Lear
12:18
On the scale of overreactions to small sample sizes, how much of an  overreaction has there been to Soto's start of season, on a scale of 1-100?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:19
about an 80. He's underperformed but he's been good, not unlike how he did when he was first traded to the Padres, but the fishbowl of New York amplifies that, and some of the silly stuff that certain old white men have projected on him just doesn't hold much water.
Farhandrew Zaidman
12:20
Hey Jay! Who is your modern day "Hall of Very Good" player? This question brought to you by Nate Eovaldi, currently #10 in active K leaders, with a cool 3.97 ERA in 1639.2 IP.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:23
I've got a million of 'em. Andy Pettitte, Mark Buehrle, Evan Longoria, Jimmy Wynn, Willie Davis, Reggie Smith...
12:24
Among active players, Corey Seager and Trea Turner come to mind as they're a couple beats behind Lindor and Correa (the gap between those two is widening, too).
if Marcus Semien can't shake out of this slump, he's another.
12:25
Mike Petriello's arguments to the contrary, I'm not sure I can see Zack Wheeler getting strong HOF consideration and am rather lukewarm on him myself given his late start and modest counting stats. deGrom too, mainly due to the injuries
Marcus Semien
12:26
It's been a month since you wrote about me, and I somehow looked even more cooked at the plate than I did in April. How long do the keep getting chances with my contract and status in the organization?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:28
It's grim. The thing about the Rangers is that they're not getting much from 1B (Burger), DH (Joc) or their outfield besides Langford (Carter and García have both been bad). The thing is, with Seager out due to a hamstring strain, the most likely replacement for Semien, Josh Smith, is already in the lineup. Maybe when Seager returns, Smith gets some play at second.
Mr. Burrito
12:29
Also, are you at all worried that the Dodgers starters are burning down the Dodgers bullpen? At what point do they need to trade for an innings eater?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
in-season, the general assumption should always be that nobody is going to trade for anybody substantial until July, and I expect the Dodgers fit into that bucket. Glasnow is working his way back, Kershaw looked good before rain curtailed his second start, Snell is finally throwing again, Shohei faced live hitters for the first time on Sunday... they've got a lot on the way. I know they're concerned but I believe they'll try to solve things internally for as long as they can
ML
12:32
As a Tigers fan, I feel very fortunate to have watched Verlander and Scherzer in their primes but I don't know if I ever saw anything as crazy as Skubal ending his Maddux with a 103 mph fastball.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
He's unreal. I haven't read Ben Clemens' piece yet today but i'm looking forward to it https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-multifaceted-tarik-skubal/
Northsider
12:33
I know I'm splitting hairs since they are play great baseball, but is the Cub's struggling Bullpen due to ownership hubris or bad luck in talent not panning out?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
I think it's the latter, and your selective attention. Guys like Brasier and Pressly had reasonably good performances and good stuff last year but haven't pitched well, but then guys like Thielbar and Keller, who didn't pitch well last year, have improved, and Pomeranz and Palencia have been lights out in a small sample.
Guest
12:36
Do you think Altuve's move to LF adversely affects his HoF candidacy, or is it irrelevant because there's nothing that will affect his candidacy more than the scandal? I think you have him as the 20th-ish best 2b (which puts him in the hall), but in LF his WAR could go backwards.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
I don't think the move to LF is going to matter much to his HOF case unless he's totally cooked and winds up not augmenting what are currently light counting stats. Since he's been the one Astro most frequently exonerated regarding the sign stealing (he reportedly told his teammates not to signal him), I don't see that as having an impact either.
The Amazing Kreskin
12:39
Looking into your crystal ball, who will be the better and/or safer pitcher 3 years from now? Roki Sasaki or Chase Burns
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:40
I'm not a prospect guy, and while I know Sasaki has scuffled in the majors thus far (see https://blogs.fangraphs.com/rokis-rocky-rookie-season-takes-a-rough-tu...), Burns has just 40.2 IP as a professional and hasn't pitched above Double-A. A lot can happen but I'll take the guy who has succeeded (at least intermittently) against high-level competition.
Lucas
12:41
What do you see the Phillies doing at the trade deadline? They are doing well now, but they still need a solid reliever and OF help
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
Every contender needs another reliever, always and forever, so that's rarely interesting to discuss. To my eyes, the Phillies need a whole new outfield, and I'd expect them to be focused there barring significant turnarounds (turns-around?).
Matt VW
12:43
Any chance the Red Sox trade Duran instead of Rafaela or Abreu? They'd get more for him and they haven't made the same long term commitment to him that they have to other younger players (Rafaela included).
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
Doubtful. Duran is the best of them and even if they're going year-to-year, they value him more highly. Rafaela probably didn't merit the big investment but has some value as a utilityman if nothing else; I think Abreu is the one they view as being in the sweet spot in terms of valuable from a control standpoint and replaceable from a talent one.
beleaguered
12:45
A broad question: at what point do you and your colleagues begin attributing the success of an organization's pitching to the organization itself? I want to believe that the Royal's pitching successes this year and last are signs of an improved development program, but I'm also aware that many of their success stories were really incidental. Ragans had already begun overhauling his stuff at Tread, Lugo was already good when they acquired him, etc.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
We meet every Thursday at 10:37 AM ET and decide how to apportion credit...
Connecting…