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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/28/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:02
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my Friday chat. I'm in a bit of a melancholy mood here, as I just saw my parents off after they visited me here in Brooklyn — our first face-to-face get-together since February 2020.
2:03
I had a light week so that I could spend time with them. I wrote about an attempt to use Game Scores (version 2) to compare the various no-hitters from this season to those of the recent past https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scoring-this-years-no-hitters/
I also wrote about Max Muncy's turnaround https://blogs.fangraphs.com/after-a-deep-slump-muncy-is-maxing-out-aga...
And Tommy Pham's faint signs of turnaround after two rough partial seasons in San Diego https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/amid-bad-luck-and-injuries-tommy-pham-...
2:04
As I'm still waiting for the queue to fill, we'll give it a few minutes
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
2:06
As FanGraphs' resident historian, are there dumber players than the Baez rundown? I am flabbergasted by the all-around dumbness of the actions of all of the parties involved in that play. The silly backwards run, the actually chasing after him, the panicked throw to the plate, the standing by to watch the play at the plate before realizing the need to run to first, and then the attempted play at first.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:07
2:09
The one play that comes to mind in terms of sheer ridiculousness, and in a higher-leverage situation, was Chuck Knoblauch's gaffe during the 1998 ALCS, when the second baseman argued with the umpire  instead of retrieving the ball while the winning run scored
2:10
the tabloids had a field day with that one. BRAINLAUCH and BLAUCHHEAD
Matthew
2:10
If hypothetically the changes to the independent Pioneer League came to MLB, how would that change roster construction? Teams placing emphasis on having 1-2 batting practice HR hitters as a role or at least important additional skill for regular players to have? Batting practice pitchers being scouted and signed as an important part of the roster? Does Ichiro Suzuki make a comeback for this role?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:11
My guess is that each team might have a HR Derby-type specialist on the roster but the thing to remember about batting practice pitchers is that they can be coaches, and it's probably easier to find one that doesn't necessarily have MLB-level skills
he could be something like the "Associate pitching coach"
2:12
though MLB does limit the number of uniformed coaches a team can have, and presumably he'd have to be among those
Nick
2:14
Escotto is starting to really heat up in the Pirates system. How bad did Cashman miss on the Taillon trade? I would argue it’s more lopsided than the Archer Pittsburgh trade. At the least it has the potential to be
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:19
Not being a prospect expert, I can't tell you much of any worth about Escotto, but it's a bit early to start judging this deal as "worse than Archer." Taillon hadn't pitched in the majors in nearly two years due to injuries and health, and the Yankees knew he'd have some rust to knock off. His numbers aren't great but he's flashed some very good stuff here and there. The Yankees do hope for more, and they also have Taillon under another year of club control.
2:21
Where I think it's fair to fault Cashman in the near term is the the extent to which the rotation is relying upon Kluber/Taillon/Germán, who together threw 1 inning in the majors last year without further outside reinforcements. Yes, they have some internal depth, but they needed an innings guy. Even retaining Masahiro Tanaka would have been fine. now they're somewhat up the creek without Kluber for 2 months, and needing Taillon to come around quickly.
Super Max
2:23
Where do you see Story going this summer? Or are the Rockies holding because of dumb ownership
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:24
Good question. Right now there has to be concern given that Story left Thursday's game with tightness in his right elbow, the same one for which he had a UCL scare in late 2018
2:27
If he's still healthy later this summer, I might keep an eye on the Angels, who could move Fletcher back to second base; the Braves, who can't seem to get consistency out of Swanson; and the Giants, who have Crawford about to hit free agency. It's not a guarantee that any of them will be contenders by then, though
2:28
The Reds, if they're still alive, might be another possibility.
Guest
2:28
Are the Reds the Angels of the NL?  They are squandering the two best hitters in the NL (Winker and Castellanos) the same way the Angels have squandered Trout and Ohtani the last few years.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
Winker and Castellanos are off to hot starts, and both can hit, but good lord, they don't belong in any comparison to Trout and Ohtani. two generational talents whose gifts are being endlessly squandered in Anaheim
2:30
Which isn't to say the Reds have done all they can to contend. They haven't.
2:31
Like, getting a real shortstop instead of trying Suarez there.
PhilDiggety
2:33
Regardless of what the Rays do with service-time considerations, is Wander Franco ready for the bigs right now? It seems like he is.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
I'll defer to the prospect guys on this one but the general sense I get is that he's ready enough
2:34
And I think the Adames trade is an acknowledgement of that. he's coming at some point this summer
Champdo
2:35
Do you think Mize and Skubal are coming into their own?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
That's pretty vague, but ok, I'll buy it to some degree. Neither has what you'd call good numbers overall this season (Skubal especially) but both have been getting better results lately. Mize 5 straight quality starts, 2.25 ERA, 3.40 FIP, Red Sox and White Sox among the team's he faced in that stretch. Still want to see him miss more bats and walk fewer. Skubal 3 of last 4 starts decent, but two of those teams were the Twins and Mariners, who have been terrible. Maybe not yet for him.
MM
2:38
Just how long do you think Pujols will be on the Dodgers roster this season.  Does he leave before the season ends?  And if so, which player returning is the one that leads to Pujols getting released?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:39
I think the returns of Bellinger and Seager will eventually shake him off the roster unless the quality of his current play offers a convincing case for him to stay
Joe
2:40
Does Lindor have a chance to turn it around?  Is he just unlucky or is it something else?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
woof. even his expected stats — .226 AVG, .344 SLG — are terrible. I have to think this is a whole lot of mental/mechanical and it's going to take some time for him to sort out. It will happen  sometime in the next decade, I'm sure of it!
Matt V
2:42
This might seem counter-intuitive, but would moving back fences in MLB parks help with declining offense? Part of the problem seems to be that everyone's swinging to hit it out, and making a homer on every swing seem less likely might helpfully diversify plate approaches. At the very least, it might address the not enough balls in play problem from an entertainment perspective...
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:44
it's been suggested — the Coors Field solution! More balls in play because they have more area to land and further distance to travel before they get out — but I don't see it happening because it would mean taking seats out and therefore reducing potential attendance. I think raising the outfield walls would be a cheaper solution (though it would still cost seats) in that more balls would ricochet instead of scraping as they go out (or get robbed by athletic outfielders)
David
2:44
If Javy somehow put together a borderline Hall of Fame career, would flashy plays like yesterday’s base running help to sway any voters?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:45
i mean, people will remember that play, his artistry on tags, and his high baseball IQ in general but I can't see the instance of a single play having much sway unless it were to come in a World Series.
Bettsbellingercaruso
2:47
Would Bill Mazerowski be basically the only one where 1 play got him across the finish line for the HoF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:47
Quite possibly, and all it took was a World Series-winning home run in Game 7 over the Yankees. Easy Peasy Lemon Squeezy, you've been elected to the Hall of Fame.
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