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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/30/23
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:01
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to the post-Memorial Day edition of my chat. I had a weekend of solo parenting that was filled with activity, including taking my 6 1/2 year old daughter to a Yankees-Padres game on Friday night, but didn't see much baseball otherwise until last night when I had Bobby Miller on one device and Bryce Miller on the other.
2:03
anyway... no article from me today due to travel. ON Friday I checked in on Trea Turner's struggles https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trea-turners-slide-has-not-been-smooth/ and the day before that on Carlos Correa's foot https://blogs.fangraphs.com/carlos-correas-rebound-from-a-slow-start-h... Surprisingly, the latter has avoided the IL for now
Chairman Meow
2:03
What are your thoughts on  Francisco Alvarez after his hot start, future star or even current star?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:04
I'm impressed so far. I mean, who wouldn't be given his .269/.327/.558 start through 113 PA?
He's +4.9 runs in framing, too. Didn't see that coming
2:05
He graded out as a 60 FV prospect, which is All-Star caliber. I haven't seen anything to suggest he won't be one though I don't expect him to maintain a 142 wRC+
Dylan
2:06
This year probably kills Trea Turner's HOF chances right? Not just because he really needed another peak season(s), but because this year makes in extremely unlikely that he's going to return to elite performance at age 30 or 31
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:07
It's a bit early to say that 1/3 of a season kills a guy's HOF chances but i already felt like he was behind the wave of younger shortstops and what we've seen so far given his struggles with the fastball doesn't bode very well
2:09
momentary delay while i unpack my lunch (chicken banh mi). bear with me
Chip
2:10
What does a contract this offseason look like for Harrison Bader? I would've thought he'd be a great fit for the Yankees, but with him injured yet again I don't think a team with such profound injury issues can afford to add another IL liability to the roster.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:13
Well, a whole lot depends on whether he can stay on the field, and as we type this we're waiting to find out if his hamstring injury is significant enough to warrant an IL stay. he's an elite defender though, and has a ton of value even if he's not playing 150. ZiPS has him projected for about 10 WAR over the next three seasons in about 110 games a year. I'd expect something north of $20M AAV, but maybe shorter term with some bells and whistles (vesting/club option).
2:14
4/$80ish maybe?
James
2:14
What’s the best option for San Diego moving forward?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
Scoring more runs and/or allowing fewer
James
2:16
What’s the best option for San Diego moving forward? 1.) Fire Preller and hire a new GM 2.) Keep Preller but add a analytical POBO (Sterns, Epstein) 3.) Keep Preller at the helm and maintain the course
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:17
I have a tough time imagining that Seidler is spending all of this money without giving Preller a longer runway than a year to produce results.
2:19
As to whether an Epstein or Stearns would come in above, given the current commitments and shape of the farm system – is that their best fit?  I don't know but I do think it's simpler than just "let's add this big name free agent" which is, uh, how the Padres got to this point at least in part.
Dallas
2:20
i just don’t see the offensive ability with Ke’Bryan Hayes. His swing doesn’t barrel anything up consistently, and you cannot run a 3B everyday who can’t perform above league average. Am I overly harsh or is it time to start to worry?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
His offense has been a disappointment to date, 67 wRC+ ugh. That said, he's  averaging 92.7 mph exit velo and 46.9% hard-hit rate, with a career-high 14.3 degree launch angle. He's got a .261 xBA and .410 xSLG which is more than playable with that glove.
2:23
Consider last year he had a .303 xwOBA and still 3.0 WAR, this year he's at .318 xwOBA. I wouldn't give up hope yet.
Joe
2:23
Are you guys team Trade Jonathan India?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
I'm not. I'm team Find Your Good Young Players Positions. Try him in the OF or 3B and Senzel in the OF.
2:26
I know there are questions about his arm, but i think you have to try something. The Reds are rightly ridiculed for tearing things apart too quickly, trading him will be viewed as just one more example of that.
Yo-Yo
2:27
Wainwright has been terrible this season, and he was barely hitting 85 mph (not an exaggeration) at the end of his last start. St. Louis is miraculously still in the playoff hunt, so every start counts. Teams are starting to move on from ineffective older starters (Kluber). How does STL weigh his run at 200 wins versus a playoff run?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
sooner or later they have to go with their 5 best. LIberatore is one of those five, and it seems like Matz has had a long enough runway to show that he isn't. I imagine what will happen is that Matz goes to the bullpen while Wainwright gets at least a few more starts, and that the two could swap places if the performances still merit it.
KCbbq
2:30
Has Oakland squeezed all of the juice out of Rooker and now we're left with just a withered fruit? What are you expecting from him rest of season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
he's still averaged 92 mph exit velo with a 10% barrel rate and 50% hard-hit rate in May even while putting up just a 78 wRC+. I wouldn't give up on that at all, but I would hope he can cut the strkeouts a bit from this month's 33%
2:33
his ROS depth charts projection is .223/.322/.428. I think he can surpass that if he keeps pounding the ball as he has
Sweaty Vedder
2:34
Could heavier, larger pitchers, like Alex Manoah, be effected negatively by the new pitch clock?  Maybe the game just moves too fast for certain body types
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:36
I'm currently reading Jack Curry's book, The 1998 Yankees: The Inside Story of the Greatest Baseball Team Ever, and feel like the criticisms of David Wells were similar. Any time a large pitcher struggles, somebody comes back criticize his conditioning. It seems like too easy a crutch to lean on
2:38
from what I've read I suspect his issues are more mechanical, he's not getting the strikes where he used to and pitching from behind in the count more often. Could those mechanical problems be caused by fatigue? Maybe. Could that fatigue be clock-related? Maybe. But I don't think it's guaranteed.
2:39
Leo Morgenstern checked in him recently https://blogs.fangraphs.com/alek-manoah-is-falling-apart-at-the-seams/
Brandon
2:39
How much more work does JT Realmuto have to do to enter the HOF realm. His WAR is a little light but everyone else is miles behind him
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
Good question. I haven't thought about it a ton but he's clearly the head of the class these days with the possible exception of Will Smith. I see two HOF-caliber seasons and three other good ones; i think he's gonna need a few more of the former.
which isn't easy as he heads into his mid-30s
Hamandcheese
2:43
How do you think the Guardians rotation will shake out ROS with Civale and McKenzie coming back from injuries? Both rookies in their rotation have looked sharp so far.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:45
They have three rookies in the rotation in Allen, Bibbee, and Gaddis, the last of whom has a 5.34 ERA and 4.97 FIP. He's likely the first man down. As to who's second... if I've learned anything it's that you can't project too far ahead when it comes to rotations. Somebody is always sore enough to go on the IL when somebody needs a roster spot.
Eldridge Cleaver
2:46
What is wrong with Shane Bieber?  His velocity last year was already alarmingly low but his FIP was 2.87.  His velocity is basically the same this year and his FIP is 4.03.  All I can see is a change in his pitch mix where he's throwing his cutter a lot more this year and for some reason the pitch is much worse than it was last year.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:48
i'm not exactly sure but the numbers say the cutter is getting hammered (.339 AVG/.536 SLG) even while generating more whiffs. Its usage has basically tripled against righties but they're not the ones doing the damage, while lefties are killing it despite a similar usage rate from last year. worth a closer look at some point
Freddie Freeman
2:49
Am I a Hall of Famer?
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