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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/4/20
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:03
12:22
and I'm back
12:23
Sorry for the delay, but that news is too exciting not to share. Anyway, on with the chat...
E
12:24
Without looking, where does Adrian Beltre rank in all time hitter WAR?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:25
(without looking): easily within the top 50.

(looking via B-Ref): 27th all-time.

(looking via FanGraphs): 33rd all-time.
mmddyyyy
12:25
Is peak score consecutive years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:27
For JAWS? No. When I first created the metric for the 2004 election cycle, I was using best five consecutive seasons, with allowances for military service and major injuries, but I switched to best seven seasons at large within the first 18 months. It's funny and maybe a bit frustrating that the confusion still persists 15 years later, and something of a cautionary tale as far as changing a metric once it's been introduced.
glt4dc
12:27
We're watching the ESPN bio on Michael Jordan/Bulls dynasty, I'm not a huge NBA fine but it's quite good.  Anyhow, my son and I were wondering, what are other 10-part sports stories that could be pitched to ESPN where could plausibly claim to attract a potentially sizable audience.  All the ones we immediately came up were NBA topics (LeBron, Kobe, Dennis Rodman, Golden State Warriors dynasty), but we had a hard time coming up with an MLB-themed one.  What would you pitch in terms of players, dynasties, etc., from the past 3 or 4 decades that could work?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:29
The first one that comes to mind would be on the resurgence of the Yankees, centered around their 1996-2009 span of championships. A Moneyball/analytics one centered around the A's and incorporating the successes of the Moneyball-with-Money teams such as the Red Sox, Cubs, and Astros.
The Red Sox's and Giants' spans of championships, the rise of Mike Trout, the sign-stealing scandal... I'm not sure if those could all sustain 10-episode arcs but probably good for at least five episodes.
12:31
Oh, and maybe one combining Adrian Beltre and Bartolo Colon,  strange career arcs and fun players in the age of social media.
Ed
12:31
Why does the draft have to change at all? What affect does the stoppage have on the draft process itself?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:35
Good question that could be the subject of an entire piece or series. Lots of factors here. Teams love cost certainty and want to decrease spending on amateurs and limit their options in terms of who they can play for, not only those in the US but also those outside the country, which is why eventually there will be an international draft. The union needs a bargaining chip, particularly one that doesn't take money out of their own pockets — remember, each draftee is a threat to take the job of a union member. Teams believe that the structure of the current minors is unwieldy with too many extra levels (the impetus for contraction) and so with fewer job openings upcoming, they can shorten the draft. Also, with the current outage, revenue is going to take at least a short-term hit, and so the amount of money available for bonus pools is shrinking.
mmddyyyy
12:35
Where would you slot Mike Trout into the LAA lineup?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
I really like the trend of batting the best hitter in the lineup second, to get him that extra PA once in awhile and to hopefully get somebody on base ahead of him.
Spa City
12:37
Opening Day July 4th - President Trump throwing a ceremonial 1st pitch for the defending champion Washington Nationals’ game, with the largest American flag ever made stretched across the outfield. It would be one of the greatest moments in baseball history. Our country could use a unifying moment like that!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
For as excited as I will be when baseball returns, I don't think there's anything Donald Trump could do anymore that would create a moment of national unity. I'll leave it at that.
Matt
12:39
As a Phillies fan, which KBO team should I root for?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
Offhand i know that the Samsung Lions have ex-Phils Ben Lively and David Buchanan (but no longer Darin Ruf, who signed with the Giants — MLB's Giants, not the KBO's) and the NC Dinos have Aaron Altherr. How highly you regard them may be a different story given that  one reason they're in the KBO is that they couldn't cut it in Philly, but I do think that for those unfamiliar with the league, some familiar names are probably the starting point.

Beyond that, I'm attempting to cobble together a rooting guide for Wednesday. Also worth knowing: Dan Kurtz, the keeper of MyKBO, was raised in Pennsylvania and is a Phillies fan. You can read Part 1 of my interview with him here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/nothing-lost-in-translation-meet-dan-k...
Jeff
12:43
Why is the language uses by media and fans so relentlessly owner friendly?  Is it because deep down we are all magnates? If we just believe
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:46
I think the average fan is still somewhat resentful of the fact that s/he is likely making far less money than the MLB minimum and, given short-term frustrations with watching players struggle and fail — baseball, after all, is a game of failure — believes they should be more easily replaced. I think both fantasy baseball and the advanced statistics movements have helped to reinforce some of the worst tendencies about thinking this way, and I do believe it's the job of a conscientious writer to attempt to push back at this way of thinking, if only to highlight how easy it is to fall into this trap and treat players as stat-generating robots.
Binging Ben
12:46
Currently binging the sopranos and silicon valley. How about you?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
Here at Casa Jaffe-Span, we don't binge so much as work in a rotation that gets us about one episode of each a week. Currently rewatching Justified, catching up to Billions (we're not quite to the new season yet), two episodes into the Plot Against America and about five eps into Hunters. Solo, i just finished Altered Carbon (knocked down The Expanse and the end of Mr. Robot previously) and am now onto the final season of Homeland.
Jeff
12:48
Do you think Torkelson has a shot to skip the minors? He's played a crazy amount of baseball as an NCAA intern
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
I'm probably not the right person to ask here but I think it's more likely that some team games his service time than fast-tracks him to the majors without even a day in the minors.

Separately, I'd like to point out that Torky was the neighbor of my cousin Allan in Petaluma, CA. So I'm extra-hopeful that he succeeds.
Phan
12:51
Chase Utley, in my opinion, deserves to be in the HoF, but I get how he may come across as an on-the-fence player. What are your thoughts on Utley deserving to get in vs not?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
I think Utley is eminently worthy — he's 11th in JAWS and above the 2B standard — https://blogs.fangraphs.com/retiring-mauer-and-utley-both-worthy-of-co... but his late shot in the majors, his falling short of 2,000 hts, and the extent to which his WAR is boosted by outstanding defense and baserunning numbers mean that he will not have an easy time of it once he hits the 2024 BBWAA ballot. But I'd vote for him without a moment of hesitation and I hope that he'll have a real shot as the electorate evolves into a more advanced stat-friendly one.
Jeff
12:53
I cannot be the only person who thinks it's funny that 2020 baseball opened up with a sign stealing hunt led by one of the owners. Sign stealing! Steal all the signs and do all the steroids, wtf does anyone  care?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
Based on the comments around the league since the Astros' scandal first reared its head, it's pretty clear that the players care about sign stealing, which should tell you something.
Short term memories
12:54
Every sports player/fan/employee is going through a rough patch, without question, as is everyone. But of the entire sports community, would you say the Astros are the biggest winners out of all of this since it puts more time between them and the scandal? It's bound to ease the ice cold reception once games resume.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:56
I think the Astros and Red Sox are beneficiaries of not having to immediately face the music — the boo birds from around the league — due to the COVID-19 delay. I will say that the outage has given many of them a chance to make visible contributions to their communities, in terms of financial support. George Springer and Alex Bregman come to mind.
Alex
12:56
Joe Posnanski has written about "defensive magical thinking" regarding Dave Winfield. That is, he can hold the contradictory ideas that the statistics correctly say he was a bad outfielder and yet looked like a tremendous, athletic one, at the same time. He can believe what he knows to be wrong, in a sense. Can you think of a player who inspires similar cognitive dissonance for you?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
I'd say that the perception of Jack Morris as an elite pitcher versus the actual stats regarding his run prevention and postseason prowess are another example, albeit one that I don't fall for, and likewise Omar Vizquel regarding his fielding and the metrics. I'd have to think harder about what players induced the blind spots for me, because I look at enough data that it tends to shape my perceptions moreso than just watching.
Alex
12:59
You and I both harshly disagree with his views, but would you still vote for Schilling for the hall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:01
I have included him on nearly all of my virtual ballots since he's been eligible. I will consider him for my actual one, when I get it in December, but  — let's just say a lot can happen between now and then, and the fact that my work has helped to promote his candidacy within the electorate has released me from any sense of obligation that I "owe" him my actual vote.
Jobie
1:01
Does Benintendi bounce back this year? How about Mazara?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:03
I do think Mazara was very much in need of a change of scenery. I think Benintendi is young enough to turn things around but yikes, that was an ugly step backwards he took last year, and I haven't really looked into why, but it's rare to see a player's swinging strike rate jump like that (from 7.5% to 11.6%) without there being something physically wrong.
WinTwins0410
1:04
Jay, does Dennis Martinez have a chance of ever making it onto a small-committee HoF ballot?  What are your thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:07
Dennis Martinez's rebound from years lost to alcoholism is an inspiring story, and in many ways, he was sort of the Bartolo Colon of his time — a guy who came back from oblivion to become a beloved elder statesman. That said, I think outside of the win total (245) I don't see anything that really says he should be on a ballot. 106 ERA+, 2,149 K, minimal black ink, 67 on the Hall of Fame Monitor, 41.0 JAWS (140th among starting pitchers). He's a Jamie Moyer type candidate.
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