JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/4/20

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James

1:07

I think you'd still be getting questions about consecutive/non-consecutive years for JAWS regardless of changing the metric in the first 18 months. It's a pretty natural question to have, and I doubt it's related in any way to a decision you made 15 years ago. Most of the people asking probably weren't even aware of the original formula

Jay Jaffe

1:07

A plausible theory.

Ron

1:07

If MLB resumes but MILB is still suspended, how do teams keep players ready to step in for injured or struggling players? Especially for pitchers, it seems very difficult to keep people ready to play without a minor league system.

Jay Jaffe

1:08

I suspect that teams will be keeping some number of players in reserve, playing intrasquad games somewhere so as to get instruction and remain on the ready in case reinforcements are needed. But we'll see.

Dave

1:10

After becoming an ad-free member, ordering merch, etc., is the best way to support FG just to come to the page once or twice (or more) per day? I genuinely don't know how advertisers count/consider page view stats-- nowhere near my area of expertise-- but I feel very strongly that I'd like FG to survive.

Jay Jaffe

1:15

Thanks for your concern as well as your support, Dave!

If you are tapped out financially — having become a member and ordered merchandise — then yes, visiting our site is the next-best thing you can do, and encouraging others to visit by sharing links to articles you like, whether among friends or via social media, is helpful, too.

If you still have a few dollars to spare, you can buy a gift membership for somebody else or simply donate money. Links to ways to do these things can be found under the "Support FanGraphs" drop-down menu immediately to the right of the Player & Blog Search box on the black navigation bar atop the site.

Jeff

1:15

When is Kris Bryant delivering that .300/.400/.600 season deep down we all know is coming?

Jay Jaffe

1:15

Maybe this year? It would be great to see, because it would mean that we have a season.

Travis

1:16

Looking ahead at future potential Hall of Famers, it looks like there's a dearth of LF players coming down the pipeline (not counting young 'un's like Soto, because way too soon). Does any other position seem to have a similar dearth of candidates? is there any reason that the LF seems stacked? Is there a "Best LF candidate" out there that I'm just missing?

Jay Jaffe

1:18

Left field is currently a wasteland for upcoming candidates, as the top three are Ryan Braun (42.7 JAWS and no chance in hell given his PED suspension and the unique ugliness underlying it), Matt Holliday (39.4 JAWS), and Brett Gardner (37.2 JAWS). The best hope for the future is probably Christian Yelich, with 31.8 career bWAR and JAWS through his age-27 season, and some low-hanging fruit as far as boosting his peak score.

Sam

1:18

Why do we only tend to try to use the character clause as a disqualifying factor (e.g. Schilling)? If a player is penalized for their personal flaws, shouldn't we reward the good guys with a little bonus?

Jay Jaffe

1:22

I explored this in The Cooperstown Casebook. Before Mark McGwire hit the ballot in 2007, it was very rare to see the character clause mentioned, and when it was, it was generally in a positive light. Frankly, I don't put any stock in the clause given that it was written by a commissioner who spent his entire 24-year tenure upholding the game's segregation, but I don't begrudge anybody for deciding that they can't look at themselves in the mirror for supporting somebody who is known to do some Really Bad Shit. .

Pirates Hurdles

1:22

I would thing a common cognitive dissonance category would be the speedy leadoff types that seem so disruptive when watching but often produce woefully low WAR.

Jay Jaffe

1:25

a fair point. I wasn't a Juan Pierre fan but I was/am a huge Ichiro fan, though I think WAR puts him in a proper context — he's remarkably close to the standard for a guy who didn't come stateside until age 27. His 6 seasons in the top 10 in bWAR testify to the fact that that type of player can have value.

viceroy

1:25

How do you feel about way to super duper early HOF odds on Acuna, Franco, Soto? Any other young studs I'm missing?

Jay Jaffe

1:26

Acuña and Soto are off to great starts thanks to their early arrivals, but beyond that I don't think we should dwell on their chances too much. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/acunas-hall-of-fame-chances-ar...

Isolated Thinker

1:27

Are official Fangraphs face coverings in the works?

Jay Jaffe

1:27

Not to my knowledge. If there's a supplier out there who is doing branded ones, please bring it to our attention and we'll look into it.

Jonathan

1:27

Debating if my future son should hit lefty or righty: lefties have more platoon advantages, but they're generally much, much worse against same handed pitchers. Is the trade off worth it?

Jay Jaffe

1:28

I think it's worth experimenting with as a kid but going with what feels the most natural, and not overthinking it or overpressuring said kid.

Sir Nerdlington

1:28

I desperately want baseball but can't get into 330am KBO game airings. Why not tape delay? I think the mouse is run by monkeys.

Jay Jaffe

1:28

Why look a gift horse in the mouth?

Jeff

1:28

Who are the KBO talents we should legit be excited about seeing?

Jay Jaffe

1:29

Check with Part 2 of my interview with Dan Kurtz of MyKBO tomorrow — we've got a bunch of players to keep an eye on.

mmddyyyy

1:29

How many MVP awards would a player have to win to make the Hall if all their other seasons were replacement level?

Jay Jaffe

1:29

Tough to imagine one even getting the requisite 10 years if seven of them were replacement level.

Derek

1:29

Thanks Jay for all the great work you and the rest of FanGraphs have continued to pump out through the duration of this pandemic! I am sure it hasn't been easy to come up with content but really the quality of work that is this site's standard hasn't dipped at all to my eyes, and it's greatly appreciated!

Jay Jaffe

1:31

Thanks for following along! We're grateful for your support. It's not easy working under these conditions — many of us have to juggle child care duties in addition to work — but I'm thankful for every day that I get an idea good enough to turn into an article. And some of them come from our readers, so keep it up, folks!

MSW

1:31

It might be tough to convince to ESPN to air a long doc with so many subtitles, but I would love a 10-parter on Ichiro, Nomo, Matsui and the wave of Japanese players around that time. I bet there's some fascinating stories.

Jay Jaffe

1:31

I like that idea a lot.

1:32

Is Robinson Cano a burden for the Mets? If he plays 2B most days he will be taking plate appearances away from guys like Dom Smith and J.D. Davis.

Jay Jaffe

1:33

If he hits like he did last year (93 wRC+), then yes, Cano is a burden, particularly on a roster with so many mismatched parts. That said his track record is pretty exceptional (125 wRC+), and if he's healthy, I'm not yet ready to say that he's incapable of producing at an above-average clip.

Cube Jockey

1:34

can a player that has fallen off the hof ballot start the clock over again if they make it back to the majors? ala a Minnie minuso promo stunt?

Jay Jaffe

1:37

I don't think the rules are clear enough to account for this example, as we've never seen it before in the wild. If a player were Five Percented off the ballot, he would likely have to wait until he was eligible for the Era Committee to get another chance. I suppose it's possible that the Hall and BBWAA could decide collectively to re-start a player's candidacy but that would need to be a special case.

UPDATE: I misremembered; see below

Dave

1:37

What is the name of the LA area museum featuring Interesting baseball stories and cases? Have you been there? If so, is it worth a visit?

Jay Jaffe

1:38

The Baseball Reliquary and yes, I've visited a couple times but I think it's moved. It's now on the campus of Whittier College.

WinTwins0410

1:38

Jay, re: Cube Jockey's question, Jose Rijo is the best example of a player who fell off the HoF ballot (5% rule) but then did a comeback later that same year (2001), and he wound up on the HoF writers' ballot again in 2008 (his last game was in 2002)

Jay Jaffe

1:39

Whoops, yes, that's right. 2001 (0.2%) and then '08 (zero votes). Amending the answer above.

1:41

Ok folks, it's time for me to go tend to the irons I have in the fire. Thanks for stopping by, and do check out some KBO action on ESPN tonight/tomorrow if you get the chance!

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