Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 5/5/26
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my first chat of May! Happy Cinco de Mayo to those celebrating, and a belated happy Star Wars Day if that's your thing.
12:03
On Friday I wrote about the league scoring environment through the end of April, noting that walk rates are up, likely due to the impact of the new ABS Challenge system https://blogs.fangraphs.com/more-walks-more-runs-an-early-look-at-offe...
12:04
On Sunday I had a bizarre gardening accident, but fared better than the average Spinal Tap drummer https://bsky.app/profile/jayjaffe.bsky.social/post/3mkxvubesl22v
12:05
Yesterday, I wrote about Ildemaro Vargas' unlikely hitting streak. (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ildemaro-vargas-is-suddenly-a-hitting-mach...), and last night I went up to Yankee Stadium to do some reporting to supplement a tribute to longtime Yankees radio play-by-play broadcaster John Sterling, who passed away at age 87. That will be up tomorrow.
12:06
Sterling, of course, is famous in the site's lore https://x.com/JSterlingCalls/status/1300580776464068608
12:08
and one final programming note: next Tuesday evening I'll be accompanying MLB.com's Michael Clair to Word Bookstores in Williamsburg to moderate a discussion of his book on the Czech Republic's national baseball team and its unlikely rise: https://bsky.app/profile/michaelclair.bsky.social/post/3ml4k6v4zqs2u
Ok, and now, on with the show!
Sid the Astros Kid
12:09
loose bodies man, idk what they are but they're taking out everyone
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:10
"Loose bodies" is a catch-all term that has more or less replaced "bone chips" in the sports medicine lexicon, because some of those fragments aren't bone but cartilage.
12:12
Here's how Will Carroll described them in his Under the Knife newsletter yesterday:

"Those loose bodies are fragments of bone or cartilage that have broken free and are literally floating inside the elbow joint. They can come from a single event, a chip knocked loose, but more often in pitchers they’re the byproduct of something ongoing. Repetitive stress, especially valgus extension overload, creates small bone spurs or cartilage damage that eventually fragments. Those fragments don’t just sit there. They move, they catch, they lock the joint for a split second, or they irritate the synovial lining. Sometimes they even grow, accumulating more material over time.

"That’s why the surgery has evolved in how it’s treated afterward. It used to be a quick fix. Clean it out, a few weeks, and back on the mound. Teams learned the hard way that the loose body wasn’t the real problem. It was the symptom, not the diagnosis. Something created that debris, and unless that something is addressed, the cycle can repeat...
"The rehab now reflects that, with a more cautious ramp, often six to eight weeks at minimum and sometimes longer depending on how the joint responds."
12:13
Carroll was writing about Tarik Skubal's diagnosis and impending surgery. Ben Clemens covered that for us https://blogs.fangraphs.com/tarik-skubals-injury-leaves-him-and-the-ti...
12:14
I wrote about Edwin Díaz in that context a couple weeks ago. The good news is that this is a procedure from which players generally return in-season in predictable fashion.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/edwin-diaz-is-headed-for-surgery-shaking-u...
just judge things
12:14
Casually tied for the MLB lead in fWAR and home runs, on his way to 200 wRC+ and, barring another dumb wall, becoming the first person to ever hit 50 HR 5x. No caveats necessary (since integration/AL/Right handed, etc.). Is the fact that he seems like he's gonna do it more amazing or the fact that no one has ever done that before? I just can't believe Ruth or someone never did.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
What Aaron Judge has done is pretty damn remarkable. Ruth came close — one more homer in 1930 would have done it — and while he was doing it at a time that home runs were far less common, what Judge is doing is against a higher caliber of competition and a larger player pool. Still, the man is somewhat injury-prone, as you allude to, so let's not count our chickens before they've knocked on wood or whatever.
OW
12:18
Would you guess over or under 115 wRC+ for the remainder of Ildemaro Vargas's season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:20
Good question. A friend asked me if it was time to put him in the same class as late bloomers like José Bautista and Justin Turner, and I said I'd like to see at least a couple hundred more plate appearances before I start fully believing it; both were much more selective hitters than Vargas, and we need to see how he reacts when the league adjusts to him and starts finding holes in his swing. That said, he's been pulling balls in the air, and so he's clearly figured something out; I'd take the over on 115 wRC+, but not by much.
Jeremy
12:22
I recall an old line from Bill James' Historical Baseball Abstract, about how some players who aren't in the Hall of Fame were clearly much better than some who are: "The Hall of Fame is a self-defining institution that has failed to define itself." (Going by memory, but that's pretty close to an exact quote.) A lot of time has passed since James wrote that. Do you think that was true back then? Is it still true today?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:24
That quote sounds correct, and I think it's from his 1994 book, The Politics of Glory (retitled for paperback Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame?).
12:26
That was definitely true back then. I believe that the Hall has tried to define itself a bit more in reaction to PED-linked players, and I think my work and that of others (including James) has tried to apply some definition, some firmer standards, with regards to who gets elected. But it's one battle after another; I'm goddamn sick of seeing Don Mattingly and Steve Garvey getting nominated every three years instead of other candidates who deserve longer looks.
Redsfan4life
12:27
Is McLain cooked? He seems healthy but is somehow worse than last year.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:30
Woof, Matt McLain isn't in a good place. He's regained some bat speed and he's pulling the ball in the air a bit more often, but his exit velo, barrel rate and expected stats are pretty much identical. I don't think he should be in the majors while he's struggling like thi; he does have three minor league options remaining.
Richard B
12:30
What do you make of Machado's start to the season? Is he a buy for you?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:34
If you squint at different sample sizes maybe you can convince yourself he's trending upwards, but I don't see much to give me confidence in that. He's a guy who tends to tinker with his stance but he doesn't seem to be in a good place right now and I wonder about his health — he's a guy who's almost impossible to get out of the lineup unless he's very injured.
All Rise
12:35
Which is more likely - Aaron Judge retires with 2,000+ hits or Aaron Judge retires with 550+ home runs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
the latter, I think, but I do believe he'll get to both thresholds.
Guest
12:37
What kind of return could the Giants get for Robby Ray?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
i think a best-case scenario for a pending free agent starting pitcher is maybe a 50-FV prospect, but that probably has to come with some salary relief. The Blue Jays traded a 50-FV guy for Shane Bieber but he was making only $10 million last year. The Dodgers gave up a 50-FV and a 45-FV prospect for Jack Flaherty in 2024, but he was making $14 million.
Beano
12:42
JR Ritchie - a “find” or a fill-in? And what’s your take on Eldridge?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
he's a real prospect, no. 68 on our Top 100 in the preseason as a 50-FV guy. Whether he has an impact this season is a separate question; the Braves just got Spencer Strider back, and may get Reynaldo López straightened out and Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep back from loose bodies surgeries before the All-Star break. Ritchie might be one of the guys bumped if those things happen as anticipated. But he can force the conversation by pitching well.
2027 HOF
12:45
Other than Dusty Baker and Bruce Bochy, are there any obvious HOF candidates for the ERA Committee this December?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
Lou Piniella has fallen one vote short twice in a row; I don't think he's as good a managerial candidate as Bochy or Baker but he'll be back for more. I'd love to see Bill White — who fell two votes short last time — elected as a full member of the Hall but he did just get named as the Buck O'Neil Award winner, which may be an excuse to kick that can down the road, a cold-ass thing to do to a 92-year-old man.
Tigers fan
12:47
How much did Skubal's injury cost him in free agency? (3 years and $150 million)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:49
I'd take the under on that. This is going to cut into the value of his walk year but it's a comparatively routine surgery and recovery, not a major career interruption. If he wants a long-term deal he's gonna get offers of $300 million or higher.
DJ
12:49
Article Idea: A mock expansion draft for two hypothetical teams being added to MLB. It's been nearly 30 years since the last MLB expansion draft, it would be interesting to what it might look like in terms of the current day player pool and roster building thought process.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
When we have two expansion teams named and a real timeline, that's an exercise worth doing, but we're a ways from that happening, with the completion of the next CBA and the resolution of the Rays and A's stadium sagas all above it in the pecking order.
sam
12:51
Any thoughts on how real Davis martin's start to the year is? I was hesitant for the first couple of starts but last night looked real - fastball, changeup, slider all playing great off one another (against the Angels but still). Looked like a totally different pitcher then the last couple of years.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
Not 30 seconds ago, one of our writers put in a claim on a Martin article so I'm just gonna tease it and tell you to sit tight.
Jeremy
12:52
Re: Ildemaro Vargas' hitting streak: what are the most impressive hot streaks in baseball history by bad-to-mediocre players? I guess Dale Long homering in eight straight games has to be up there.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:56
I don't have a lot of ideas off the top of my head but here's one. It's an overstatement to call Orlando Cabrera a mediocre player, I think, since he was an adept fielder at his best, but the fact that he owns the longest on-base streak in major league history — 63 games — despite a career .317 OBP is remarkable when you consider the alternatives such as Ruth, Hornsby, Bonds, Boggs, Judge, etc.
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