Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 5/5/26
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Jeremy
12:56
Re: hot streaks by mediocre-to-bad players, maybe Zoilo Versalles' entire 1965 season should count? 7 fWAR, AL MVP, but despite playing 12 seasons never had another season over 3 fWAR, only two other seasons over 2 fWAR, and five seasons with negative fWAR.
Farhandrew Zaidman
12:57
Should we start ringing the alarm bells on Austin Riley? Not in a “he’s a bad player” way, more of a “he’s a corner infielder who hasn’t had an OPS above 800 since 2023 with mediocre defense and those dudes typically don’t get $200 mil contracts” sort of way?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
He's 29, signed through 2032, and in his second straight year of clear decline both in actual production and expected production based on his Statcast numbers. Yeah, that's not a good place to be at all.
Endy Chavez's Outstretched Arm
12:59
Given Murakami's production, how concerned are you with his contact issues? Is .225/.335/.475 realistic going forward?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:01
I'm less concerned than I was at the outset of the season, for sure. And so are the projection systems. Given the impact of his strong early start, his Depth Charts slash projection has improved from .234/.343/.449 in the preseason to .234/.349/.471 today. so yeah, your numbers appear to be realistic
Endy Chavez's Outstretched Arm
1:01
What do you think of Kazuma Okamoto's season so far? I've been surprised by his strikeout rate, but his power has also been better than expected.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:03
I'm with you. he's hitting .236/.322/.465 (119 wRC+) but is about 40 points short of his xSLG, so I think he can be better. I'm a bit alarmed by the 29.2% strikeout rate considering he went about 19%/16%/11% over his last three seasons in Japan (the last one a shortened one)
But I think on the whole he'll be fine
Mr. Burrito
1:04
I’ve seen chatter that Will Smith eventually could switch to 3B. Other than Todd Zeile and Joe Torre, has that transition panned out? (And from what I recall if Z’s defense “panned out” is iffy)…. More importantly, should the Dodgers consider such a move?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:07
Josh Donaldson won an MVP award after converting from catcher to third, BJ Surhoff was decent there before moving on to left field, and Brandon Inge turned in some good seasons. Craig Biggio converted from catcher to second base, which has to be harder.
1:09
As to whether the Dodgers do it with Smith, I don't see a pressing need even with Dalton Rushing going small-sample bananas given that Max Muncy is off to another great start. It might be something worth experimenting with in spring training next year if Rushing maintains his strong season, but let's also see how his defense develops.
Aaron
1:09
Jay,
Hope all is well! With Matt Olson hitting his 300th career HR last night, where do you currently peg his HOF chances? Obviously he's a good ways away at the moment, but do you think if he can finish his career with ~450 HRS, 1250 RBI, and 2,000 hits he could mount a decent case with  old school voters? Thanks!
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:13
I've started to think Olson has a chance, because in addition to being an excellent hitter he's a great defender. By bWAR, his 2023 and 2025 seasons (7.5 and 6.0 WAR, respectively) are his best, and those are recent; he's also got two others above 5.0 and appears to be on his way to a third (2.5 so far). His WAR7 is at 35.7 and with, say,  6-WAR season would improve to 37.4 — 40.0 is where **** gets real, with a player havign about a 75% chance of future induction.
Forget it, Jake. It's Mets
1:13
NL-worst NYM finally showing signs of life. Do I dare to put hope in that still-remaining 30% chance of playoffs the site gives them?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:14
It's the Mets. You can hope, but you should know better.
mmddyyyy
1:15
Do all teams have the same number of minor league affiliates?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:17
After the contraction from a few years ago, they all have the same four from A-ball on up: A, A+, AA, AAA. Below that, everybody's got a Complex League team  in either Arizona or Florida and I think they all have a Dominican Summer League team, though I know the Reds have had two of those in recent years, and I'm not sure how many others do.
FannyGraphy
1:19
What is the highest WAR of a player to never make an all star team? Also, sort of related, are there many players in the hall of fame who have zero all star game appearances? Thank you
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:23
Well, there are a bunch of guys whose careers entirely predate the advent of the All-Star Game in 1933, including Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Pete Alexander, Kid Nichols, and Christy Mathewson, all with well over 100 WAR (Johnson has the most bWAR including offense; not sure about fWAR off the top of my head). More recently, I believe it's Tony Phillips who holds the distinction, with 50.9 bWAR and 46.6 fWAR.
KC
1:25
How does a guy like Cam Schlittier go from an unknown to one of the top pitchers in baseball?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:28
Maybe the Yankees aren't as bad at player development — particularly on the pitching side — as some people want to believe? He's a 6-foot-6 dude who has gained velocity and improved his command thanks to better mechanics and a switch from a slider to a cutter.
Jason N
1:29
Too early to think about what Mason Miller needs to do to enter the “Is he on track for the HoF?” discussions
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:30
Waaaay too early. Like a decade too early. Gonna have to pile up saves and strikeouts, and survive the inevitable arm injuries
1:31
Sorry if that sounds bleak but the last thing i'm forecasting ina Cooperstown sense is a 100+-mph throwing reliever with 61 career saves.
1:32
We're not even sure if Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, and Aroldis Chapman will get a long enough look from voters, and they smashed strikeout rate records while piling up saves
Sully
1:32
re: mattingly. There are only a handful of MLB players who there’s a legitimate argument for that they were the best player in baseball for 2-3 years.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:33
And we have ample evidence that two or three years isn't enough in a Hall of Fame sense. Dale Murphy's in the same boat.
Ok folks, the lunch bell tolls for me. Thanks so much for stopping by!
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