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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/9/19
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
Hi folks, welcome to another edition of my weekly chat. I ducked out last week to see Noah Syndergaard have himself a day, and just got a piece about the Nationals' annual dumpster fire off my plate, hence my tardiness. Give me a couple minutes to order some lunch and we'll light this candle.
12:05
OK, I'm back.
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
12:05
Can't wait to read your piece about the Nationals. Spoil something for me...is the entire article about how Davey Martinez is out of his league?!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:07
While I eventually turn my attention to the recent firing of the pitching coach and the vultures circling Martinez, the gist of what I wrote is that their problems have been driven by a dreadful defensive performance; they're either last in the NL or last in the majors in several advanced defensive metrics. Injuries — particularly to Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon — have been part of that, but the bullpen has been a festering sore for years. I think Mike Rizzo and Tigers-era Dave Dombrowski might actually be the same person when it comes to skimping on bullpen budgeting.
lunch
12:07
why is it that every year all the pundits pick the nationals to win the east, and then every year they just kind of.......flail about? Is there some explanation for why they seem so much better on paper than their actual performance?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:10
Via our Steamer and ZiPS projections  — which in general are pretty good as those things go — the Nats have been projected to win the NL East in each of the past two seasons, but injuries, some of them completely unforeseeable (Victor Robles' elbow, Trea Turner's finger) have had a major impact, and have exposed their lack of depth. At the same time, the bullpen woes are a repeated and foreseeable problem, which, when combined with the revolving door at manager, points to Rizzo as the culprit.
Al Gone Quinn
12:11
My man, Edgar Martinez, made it into the HOF this year, but in my opinion it's a pyrrhic victory if Bonds, Clemens & Schilling are denied, which would taint the entire HOF. What do you place the odds that these 3 guys with incredible careers reach the Hall in the next 3 years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:15
Schilling is almost certain to be elected in the next two seasons unless he further self-sabotages, which, with a presidential election on the horizon, is quite possible. Bonds and Clemens may well be hosed given their loss of momentum in the past two cycles. They're polarizing candidates, the sides are VERY dug in, few minds are being changed, and the turnover of the electorate has slowed. I'd put their odds at maybe 1-in-3 or 1-in-4 of being elected by the writers. I'm interested to see where incoming president Tim Mead stands on the issue relative to Jeff Idelson, and while I've heard great things about him in general from members of the media, I suspect that he wasn't chosen without the Hall board of directors feeling as though he wasn't going to be a radical in that area.
CubFan
12:15
While it's only been 10 games Vlady has struggled out of the gate, just like Trout and Bregman did. But at what point do you start getting concerned that he just isn't ready yet? How long of a leash do the Jays give him?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
I haven't given it much thought, but Craig Edwards has a piece up today on the very topic.  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-freak-out-about-vladimir-guerrero-jr/
I think this paragraph gives you the flavor:

Given the expectations, it’s easy to call a .162/.244/.189 slash line with a 23 wRC+ disappointing. It is disappointing. Just like the 29 wRC+ Paul Goldschmidt has put up over the last 14 days. Or the 35 wRC+ from Corey Seager during the same time period. Mitch Haniger’s wRC+ over the last two weeks is a measly 49. Ronald Acuña Jr.’s is barely better at 51, with Jose Altuve just ahead at 56. It’s possible the latter numbers have escaped your attention. It’s okay to have missed them or to even have known about them and ignored them because we know they aren’t an accurate representation of the talent level these players possess. But when a player comes up from the minors for the first time and doesn’t break out immediately, second thoughts can creep into the backs of our minds about can’t-miss prospects who missed.
12:17
Due to his name and his circumstances, there's been an incredible amount of pressure heaped on the 20-year-old, but 41 PA doesn't tell us any more about him than it does about any other player. Don't panic.
Steve
12:18
How do we get more guys like Mike Petriello in team broadcast booths?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:21
I missed last night's broadcast, alas, but Mike has done great in that capacity in the past. It's going to take courage on the part of producers to keep such experiments going. It will probably also take some amount of demographic change. Nearly 20 years into my own scribbling about baseball I can tell you that Olds will resist fancy stats, so it's going to take generations that grew up with them before they're the norm in booths.
Mark
12:22
The orioles don’t have much to get excited about on their roster but John Means has pitched really well. This guy was never a ranked prospect but has supposedly added 2mph to his fastball and improved his change. Has he turned into a prospect?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
I don't know much about Means but he did turn up among the top 10 in pitchers working in the upper third of the strike zone or above when I wrote about Chris Paddack yesterday (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/chris-paddacks-relentless-attack/), and the numbers say he's getting good results there, and overall, including a higher groundball rate. He's 26, and, of course, TINSTAAP, so prospect probably isn't the right word to use, but it does appear that there's reason for optimism, and probably a closer look.
Dennis
12:26
Whats for lunch Jay ?
Andy
12:27
Why do you always order lunch during out chats?  Convenience?  Or is the ability to keep fresh lunch items available drastically reduced due to presence of tiny human?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:30
My work pattern is such that i often have to finish up my daily article int he morning, when the stats and I have both refreshed. I generally leave the house to buy lunch, in part because it's tough to keep a loaf of bread from going south before I finish it and in part because taking a break to walk around and maybe run an errand is a necessity. Thursday is a particular squeeze to get lunch given my 12 pm chat times, and if there are no leftovers in the fridge (as is the case today) the alternative is going only an hour and change before stopping for my daily bite.
12:32
I went with a relatively new discovery, a place that specializes in chinese dumplings. Fried shrimp dumplings and a lamb mo, which is spiced, braised lamb on two round pieces of bread, with pickles. Tasty so far
Gary Sanchez
12:32
I can still hit.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:34
Thankfully, yes, but the defense appears to be going backwards in terms of framing and blocking. Slugging .679 is a good way to avoid being run out of town on a rail, but in the NY market that defense is always going to be a hot-button issue.
dondybala
12:35
The way Louis Roberts is playing in the White Sox system can you see him moving into the top 25 of your top 100.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:37
It's not MY Top 100, it's that of Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel, and given that he was already number 43 this spring, the odds are that performance and graduation helps him into the midseason top 25. I'd ask either of those guys for an informed opinion, though.
Chewbacca
12:37
How do you pronounce your last name?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
Jaffe rhymes with taffy.
Dennis
12:38
The other day the Mets had Adeiny Hechavarria in the leadoff spot, in what analytics world does that make any sense?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
Jesus Alou, i missed that completely. That's some Yostian wishful thinking right there. Callaway has only done it once, and it was on a day when Jason Vargas was starting, so maybe he was sending a message upstairs — we don't have a chance today anyway — kind of like when Joe Torre used Enrique Wilson in right field in 2002.
cavebird
12:42
Anthopoulos begs to differ about Rizzo and Dombrowski being the worst about skimping on bullpens.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:44
the difference there is budget. The Nationals and Tigers are/were in tax territory on very stars-and-scrubs oriented rosters. The Braves are just being cheapskates. They're awash in young arms, so you'd figure they'd mix and match some of their talent, but there was no impediment to them signing Kimbrel.
Kristen
12:46
Joey Gallo looks like an MVP candidate.  O-swing% way down from last year.  Is this his year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
from 32% to 22% in the O-Swing%, and a SwStr% that's dropped from 18% to 15%. There's reason for optimism that he's turning a corner, I think.
Erik Guy
12:50
Are you seeing anything from Altuve that causes concern, he's at his career best walk rate, but K'ing more than ever before.  He looks caught in between in all his AB's, taking fastballs and swinging at off speed outside the zone.  Just a career worst slump, or more there?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
I haven't watched him much but the numbers say he's very out of whack. .224 BABIP, 18.6 % IFFB, 52% pull — that's all very strange. His xwOBA is similar to last year, though, and his exit velo is actually up slightly. He's probably worth a closer look.
Urias coming back?
12:53
SD seems likely to bring Urias back up soon, right? He has nothing left to prove at AAA, they definitely have room in the IF, and they may actually be competitive?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:55
I'd think so. He's hitting .329/.415/.720 at AAA, Kinsler's below the Mendoza line, and Ty France isn't tearing up the pea patch at third base, so playing him either at second or short would appear to be an option until Tatis returns, though that could happen as soon as this weekend.
Scully
12:56
Hey Jay! Long-time lurker, first-time question asker. As a Yankees watcher, how do you feel about the weekday 6:35PM starts? Are you a 1PM weekend start-time guy, or do you enjoy weekend nighttime baseball?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
I'm all for the 6:35 starts. Went to Yanks-Sox the night that they pounded Chris Sale in a game that took 2:23 to play and was home by 10 pm. I like weekend night games, especially in the summer when it's hot as hell, but day baseball is fun, too.
Steve
12:59
What do the Mets have against JD Davis his average exit velocity is 91.9 that is 43rd in MLB isn't that worth something?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:02
Even without Jed Lowrie or Dominic Smith, the Mets have an overstuffed infield, so it's not surprising Davis isn't an everyday player. As for that 91.9 mph exit velo, he's also got a 50% groundball rate, so some of that velo is wasted. He's been a nice addition for the Mets, but he may well be a candidate to flip once everybody is healthy.
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