JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/9/19

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/9/19

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Domingo German

1:04

What did I change to find the consistency of this year, and can it be taught to others who are post hype?

Jay Jaffe

1:06

Mechanical consistency is a factor. When you can repeat your delivery, pitches go where you want them to go. Sung Min Kim had a good look recently https://blogs.fangraphs.com/domingo-german-is-finding-consistency/

TOOTBLAN

1:06

What are your thoughts on the Red Sox's White House visit today? Do you have any concern that the divide between those players attending and those players that are not will have fallout in the clubhouse?

Jay Jaffe

1:12

As anybody who follows me on Twitter can probably guess, I wouldn't have gone. I would like to have seen somebody from among the nearly all-white group of attendees acknowledge the split and stand in solidarity with his teammates of color. Instead we see David Price highlighting a pointed Steve Buckley tweet (

I just feel like more than 38k should see this tweet...

Alex Cora has confirmed newspaper report he will not make the trip to meet the president. So basically it’s the white Sox who’ll be going.

) and then backtracking once it got attention. Not great, Bob.

I don't know how this is going to play out in the clubhouse, but winning papers over most divides, at least temporarily, and the Sox are 13-6 since starting 6-13. Cora made his point but I think has the ability to keep the team focused, so I'd bet this passes.

JuanTeixeiraBeer

1:12

Any chance Kinsler gets DFA'd once Tatis Jr returns from IL?

Jay Jaffe

1:14

They signed him to a two-year deal while knowing that his bat was going soft; they value his defense and his veteran herbs and spices, and I think see him as being their version of Dodgers-era Chase Utley. I'm highly skeptical they're going to cut bait this quickly. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/padres-land-a-bargain-in-kinsler/

Bobby from DuPont Circle

1:14

Rizzo has doomed the Nationals to eternal failure because he sat Strasburg in 2012. One player is never more important than the team. The baseball gods have responded.

Jay Jaffe

1:15

That's a stupid and simplistic take.

jv

1:15

What's the Chinese dumpling place? Am hungry and live in Downtown BK

Jay Jaffe

1:15

It's called Oh! Dumplings. Worth a shot, I'd say.

I heart beisbol

1:16

Miguel Andujar is coming back from what was originally perceived as a serious injury. He's struggled at the plate so far. Gio looks like a great defensive 3B and an average hitter. Are you worried about Andujar's ability to produce this year and/or his playing time?

Jay Jaffe

1:18

The Yankees have a roster logjam coming, and I think Urshela has played his way into a longer stay. I suspect that if Andujar doesn't start hitting, and doesn't make the most of his limited looks in the field, then surgery may loom. And given that Gregorius is finishing up his throwing program and is about to return to hitting activity, I'd say that we may be closer to the end of the Tulowitzki era than the beginning.

Rudy

1:18

Do you Gleyber Torres as a future star or a serviceable regular?

Jay Jaffe

1:22

Star. Let's remember that the kid is 22. He's got a 114 wRC+ under his belt in 158 games in the bigs, and 2.4 or 3.4 WAR depending upon which flavor of defensive metric you look at, that while being somewhat stuck in between a move to a new position and an injury-related return to his old one. He's handling it all quite well given the circumstances.

Dave

1:23

Do you think they performance of the Cubs top 4 starters is sustainable?

Jay Jaffe

1:24

As with the first half of last year, there's a very big gap between Lester's low ERA and higher FIP; he got knocked around good in the second half. I expect regression there. On the other hand, I don't expect Darvish to keep stinking up the joint if he's actually healthy. In the big picture, i think the rotation will be fine

Guest

1:24

Do the Red Sox still have a chance at the division? They're finally at 500 after the putrid first two weeks.

Jay Jaffe

1:28

As Joe Torre always counseled Yankees teams that struggled early in the season, the first job is getting to .500, and so mission accomplished. They've got some issues but they've weathered some pretty rough ones. The bullpen hasn't burned down Fenway Park, and Chris Sale appears to be coming around. they'll need some reinforcements but this is still a winnable division.

Jung Ho Kang Bang

1:29

On the Bonds question, why don't the Giants give him a single at bat to reset his Hall clock? Would that actually work? He certainly wouldn't be the worst hitter on that team even at 54 tears of age.

Jay Jaffe

1:31

Playing again would reset Bonds' clock, yes. Even so, the commissioner's office could quite conceivably reject any contract between him and the Giants just as Fay Vincent did with 68-year-old Minnie Minoso and the White Sox circa 1990. https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1993-09-30-sp-40546-story.html

careagan

1:32

If Ryu keeps his ERA around 2.00 for another 100 innings or so (not a given at all considering his history), what sort of deal does he get in the offseason?

Jay Jaffe

1:33

Probably something in the neighborhood of 3/$50M with an option, either club or vesting due to his age and injury history.

Guille

1:33

Jarrod Dyson had a 300/400/500 April. Finally getting his chance at leadoff (against righties, of course). I´ve always thought the Royals pigeonholed him out of a Juan Pierre type career. On the other side, Hosmer barely plays replacement level baseball but gets nine figures contract.

Jay Jaffe

1:35

Life isn't fair, but we've got about 2100 PA that say Dyson's not enough of a hitter to start, and 90 PA to begin his age-34 season that say otherwise, so excuse my skepticism there.

Prospector

1:35

Whose playing time is most endangered by the return of Jed Lowrie: Todd Frazier, Brandon Nimmo, or Jeff McNeil?

Jay Jaffe

1:36

Well, it ain't gonna be McNeil given his hitting. My guess is Frazier, who's really struggling. I thought he'd bounce back with the Mets, but this is the very first time in my 49 years of life that I've been wrong. My apologies to everyone.

Lee

1:37

Boston's bullpen has been pretty darn good this year. Maybe they are onto something by not putting huge dollars into it?

Jay Jaffe

1:39

4.01 ERA (87 ERA-) and 4.05 FIP (93 FIP-). Very good relative to expectations, but let's not go overboard just yet. I see too many walks and homers to feel reassured that they're for real.

Guest

1:39

When you go to games, do you treat it as a fan or as a journalist?

Jay Jaffe

1:46

More the latter. When I'm in the press box, I'm a journalist, of course, and I don't fully shed that when I'm in the stands. I've been part of a partial season ticket package with the Yankees since 1998 and a BBWAA member since 2011; the Yankees for whom I could root for unabashedly as a fan are just about all gone (Sabathia and Gardner are the last), and even then, being objective about them isn't difficult.

That said, I was having a conversation about this with a longtime Yankees beat writer the other day, though, and we talked about the fact that it's a good idea not to lose touch with what it's like to be a paying customer for the games and see it through their eyes. I value the ability to experience the game both ways.

Josh

1:46

What are your expectations for Julio Urias? Really seems like he has his stuff back, which is incredible in and of itself, but what is your feeling for this season? How many innings would you anticipate this season?

Jay Jaffe

1:48

My guess is that going forward, the bulk of his season will be in the bullpen, with the occasional spot start. I've heard estimates of 100-to-125 innings and 70-to-100 from different sources; I'd lean towards the latter range.

Matt W

1:49

JD Davis is not a very good defender...

Jay Jaffe

1:49

Yes, the numbers say he's stretched at third base, to say the least.

Guille

1:49

This article https://blogs.fangraphs.com/i-wanna-be-like-mike-trout/ suggests (I understand) that Jose Altuve has below average Power. He actually has a .497 SLG and .177 ISO for the past 3 years. What am I missing? Is Ben just wrong here?

Jay Jaffe

1:50

"Trout hits for power, so our mystery player will need to hit for good (but sub-Troutian) power. Scratch both Joey Gallo and Jose Altuve from the list. "

That does not read as below average at all.

Oscar's Gamble

1:52

How do you feel about Bobby Abreu for the Hall of Fame? From 1998-2005 fWAR has him as the most valuable RF and 4th most valuable position player after Bonds, Rodriguez, and Andruw Jones. He is 1/2 players in MLB history with 400+ SB, 1,350+ RBI, and 1,400+ BB over a career (Bonds). Abreu is also 1/14 players with 7+ 100 R/100 BB seasons (Gehrig, Ruth, Thomas, Thome, Williams, Henderson, Morgan, Mantle, Foxx, Ott, Bonds, Schmidt and Bagwell).

Jay Jaffe

1:52

See

I think Abreu is a one-and-done, sadly. Spoke about him recently with @TimothyRRyder metsmerizedonline.com/2019/01/mmo-ex… and there's a bit more here twitter.com/JoshuaGruber1/…

@jay_jaffe Do you think Bobby abreu will get below 5% in the voting next year? His stats portray a borderline HOFer but seems like a guy who would fall below 5% like Edmonds or Lofton. Thoughts?

. Excellent hitter, not an ice cube's chance in hell of getting to 75%.

York

1:53

Not to be too pessimistic about their seasons so far, but would Votto and Kershaw be Hall of Famers if they retired today? It seems they may not be adding much to their JAWS scores over the coming years . . . .

Jay Jaffe

1:54

I would vote for both without a single regret today. I don't think either is done, but I do think Votto, in particular, is going to need to make some adjustments given his recent struggles.

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