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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/11/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:50
It's so rare for a player to get such an extended chance to be as bad as Pujols has been for the past half-decade, and I think what we're seeing is that most teams are quicker to understand when a cost is sunk than the Angels were. They (Artie Moreno at least) had reasons to keep him around that maybe went beyond the mere numbers but those reasons inhibited their on-field success, and you don't have to have Ted Williams' eyesight to take home that lesson.

In other words I think it would be rare to see a guy rack up even -5 WAR over 3 seasons and keep playing, and even that wouldn't totally erase the accomplishments that a carer WAR total doesn't necessarily capture.
Farhandrew Zaidman
2:50
Given the changes to the ball (COR, lighter weight, more drag, higher seams), don't we need to change all the formulas for statcast expected batting statistics? It seems like every batter right now is "overperforming" their stats, which obviously can't be true. I feel like a crazy person shouting this from the rooftops.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
I'd guess that at some point we'll see some kind of recalibration for xwOBA and other x-stats based on this year's data but you'd have to ask Tom Tango and friends if/when that will happen. One thing that we can do, and that I try to do when I'm performing such analyses is not only illustrate the individual gap between x and actual but also the leaguewide gap and the individual extremes. Just to use a hypothetical example, if Player X is 60 points under his xSLG, that's interesting, but we learn far more by presenting it in the context of the league being 20 points under as well, and of his 60-point gap being only the 15th-largest among qualifiers.
2:56
Worth noting that warmer weather and the crackdown on spin-inducing substances might change the profile of what we're seeing, too.
Marty
2:57
Maybe this is just ridiculous, but do you think Trea Turner has even the slimmest, realistic chance at the hall? I realize people in the industry and other committed types know his value, but he always seems like maybe the most underrated and under spoken of players to me (understandable with some of the stars he plays/has played with). His injury history concerns me a bit, but if I squint I can see him as a player that could age gracefully. Thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:01
you're right in that he doesn't get much talk of that type, and health has a lot to do with it; he's played 100 games only twice in parts of seven seasons, and one of those years was just 122 games. He's produced 5.0 bWAR per 162 games, while Seager has 4.9 and Lindor 5.1; Correa at 6.8 blows the doors off all of them but he has similar problems in staying on the field even before we start talking about the Astro-specific aspects of his career.
If Turner stays healthy and puts up seasons of the caliber that he's shown he can manage over shorter stints, yeah, he's a guy who will have a shot. But that's a very, very big if given his career to date
The Stranger
3:02
I'd guess pitcher bWAR is more prone to exceptional seasons because a pitcher who beats his peripherals gets full credit for it. The guys with the best ERA almost always beat their FIP to get there so WAR based on ERA will be higher.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:04
There's that but the pitchers who beat their peripherals do share some of the credit with the defense behind them. Two guys allowing 2.00 runs per nine, but one striking out 12 per nine and the other striking out 8 per nine will have some daylight between them. Likewise, ballpark adjustments and opponent quality adjustments may provide further separation or convergence
Guest
3:04
Wouldn’t it have been more accurate to credit Ke’Bryan Hayes with a HR in his stats but -1 base running runs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:04
Not when the basic rule says that by failing to touch first base he was out, but you're free to do the mental math accordingly.
Guest
3:05
Who is most likely to get traded at the deadline when the Twins finally give up on this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:10
Cruz, Simmons, Pineda, and Robles are pending free agents who are performing at levels that would appeal to contending teams, so they're the most likely to move. Whether they'd weigh moving somebody with longer-term cost certainty (Polanco) or club control (Berrios and Rogers) is another story but if the price in terms of the return is right, I suppose it could happen.
Bo Jackson
3:10
What are the chances the Royals can get back into the AL Central race?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
I wouldn't hold my breath. 7.5 back at the 61-game mark, looking up at a team that has lost two of its key players in Jimenez and Robert, does not give much hope and in fact the Royals' Playoff Odds (4.9%) are just over half of what they were on Opening Day (8.9%), with their division-title odds falling from 4.7% to 2.6%.
Estevão
3:14
What do you think about Christian Walker to Cle. He is not doing anything but we've seen something and Cle has nothing there. Honestly they have to address it
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:16
Not unless he gets hot. a guy hitting .198/.241/.307 is nobody's solution.
John b
3:17
If wainwright magically got to 200 wins and/or saw his team get to another series, what are his Hal chances.  Seems like 200 is the new 300
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:21
200 may be the new 300 but only if it's accompanied by some pretty zesty achievements and peripherals. Yes, Wainwright has a championship ring and a better postseason resume than his 4-5 W-L suggests, but his innings and strikeout totals are too low for a non-Koufax type Hall candidate, as is his WAR (40.8 including offense), and with only three All-Star appearances and no Cy Young (even with four top-three finishes) he just doesn't have a case that suggests voters will take him seriously.
John b
3:21
whenever I look at whether someone is eligible for the Hall, there’s always some early (pre 1920 ) players that completely skew the averages.
3:22
shouldn't you consider removing them for JAWS7?  Baseball was a very different game then.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:28
There's no one player, even a pre-1920 player ,who skews the averages so much as to make them useless in a HOF comparison. I have considered moving the high-volume pitchers from the pre-1893 distance change — Galvin, Clarkson, Keefe, Welch, and Old Hoss — out of JAWS but the most that it does is lower the standard by 0.8, which shouldn't really be  a difference-maker in any Hall argument. A guy 0.8 below or a guy 0.8 above is a guy who's basically in line with the standards, and there are very few guys for whom that makes much of a difference.

Which isn't to say that I haven't considered some level of workload adjustment to pitcher JAWS; I have, albeit not to the point that I'm ready to show the world anything.
Derek
3:29
Re: Kyle Tucker, it's almost a common refrain at this point, but I really do think guys like Soto, Acuna, and Tatis who came up and are instantly elite have spoiled us some. Even Vlad Jr. had seen some of his prospect shine wear off after a couple of merely good seasons at an *extremely* young age. Tucker (along with Vlad) just seems to be taking the "normal" development path of a top prospect-turned-top MLB-er!
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:30
There's some truth to this
BettsBellingerCaruso
3:30
It's kind of hilarious how some Dodger fans have been saying Mookie's slumping badly yet he's putting up a 130 wRC+ season.

And also hilarious - it's almost sthe same as his 2019 line yet the triple slash in 2021 looks so much worse:

2019 Mookie w/ Boston: .295/.391/.527 135 wRC+

2021 Mookie: .255/.366/.447 130 wRC+

The league offense just got worse significantly and he went to a pitchers' park and he's in the NL
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:31
I'm gonna write about Mookie next week, I think.
Cube Jockey
3:33
Pardon my science ignorance, but does using foreign substances on ball, negatively affect velocity?  Shouldn't it reduce the force the pitcher is able to transfer to the ball, or does the increased spin rate make up for that?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:33
IANAP (I am not a physicist) but it probably does cost velocity to a small degree, small enough to be offset by the gains in movement, spin, and unpredictability.
3:34
(had to edit that one)
Estevão
3:34
If I were to tell you three years ago that the Angels would keep Trout and add the most exciting player in the history of the sport and a top 5 3B in Anthony Rendon and it'd do nothing to change the status quo what would you have said
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:35
I'd have guessed we might see Trout in the playoffs again at least once, but (sigh)
Billy Beane
3:35
Should I stick with a surging Elvis or trade the farm for Story?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:36
I think you should see how long Elvis keeps surging and whether Story really is healthy. You've got about a month to get serious about it, so use that time
Guest
3:36
When will Wander be called up? Do you have any idea Jason Dominguez will start playing in the minors?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:36
These are questions you should be asking Eric Longenhagen or Kevin Goldstein.
Fat Spielberg
3:38
I never hear any mention of Jerry Koosman as a possible HoFer, but he did finish with 60+ FGWAR. It was hard for him to get out of Seaver's shadow, but I think he has a stronger case that many other names I see thrown around.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:41
He's better than his 222-209 record would suggest but still only 104th in JAWS, and 137th in peak. 2 All-Star appearances, 1 top-5 Cy finish... .He's not among the top 20 starting pitchers I'd consider for a spot.
t68
3:42
Jesus Luzardo....bust?....can he at least turn out to be a #3 starter?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:44
labeling a 23-year-old a bust is asinine. Young pitcher development isn't linear to begin with, and injuries can further stall that development, but I think it would be foolish to give up on him on the basis of a bad-35 inning stretch or abandon hope that he fulfills his 60 FV projection.
Guest
3:45
If he continues on this pace, would Yasmany Grandal's season be the single most productive sub-.200 batting season in MLB history?
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