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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/16/20

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Jesse

2:49

Are there any great baseball books for toddlers? I'm just about Pout Pout Fished out.

Jay Jaffe

2:50

oh my god i hate that book with a passion because of the read-aloud option on the Epic platform — my daughter has gone over that one dozens of times, and whoever read that book needs to go to The Hague immediately.

2:53

We were gifted a very cute board book version of Take Me Out to the Ballgame that my daughter loves https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/239066/take-me-out-to-the-bal...

Dinosaur Bob was a huge hit with her https://www.scholastic.com/teachers/books/dinosaur-bob-and-his-adventu...
as was Bats at the Ballgame http://www.brianlies.com/bats-at-the-ballgame

Duck

2:54

If the Manfred-to-Yankees letter mentions Yankees' 2015-2016 (2017?) sign stealing schemes, which have been detailed by the Athletic, and assuming the Yankees stopped such scheme after the league made clear that it was illegal, how big of a deal would it be that Manfred/the MLB knew about such schemes and intentionally hid that information in their public press release?

Jay Jaffe

2:55

Well, if that's the case, it won't be a PR win for Manfred or the Yankees, but I don't think it ends up amounting to much because of which side of the September 2017 memo it landed on.

Jimmy Jazz

2:55

Hi Jay - Heading to Eastham in a couple of weeks - any favorite eating spots that you can recommend?

Jay Jaffe

2:58

Yes but with the caveat that I have no idea of their current status... Blackfish in Truro is our favorite special-occasion restaurant in this general vicinity. Mac's Shack and Winslow Tavern are standbys for going upscale. Moby Dick's and Arnold's probably the best for the fried stuff.

Duck

2:58

I've been watching a lot of CPBL, and very little KBO. I might try to watch some NPB when that starts up. Do you think you'll jump on NPB when it gets going, stick with KBO?

Jay Jaffe

2:59

I guess it depends on how easy NPB is to watch — the KBO has that ESPN deal, and while it isn't perfect, it's been the separator between that and the CPBL; I tried to subscribe to CPBL TV and never got the transaction to go through.

WinTwins0410

3:00

Jay, the Athletic's Levi Weaver recently wrote a piece on Buddy Bell being snubbed -- hard -- for the Hall (he only got 1.7% in his only year on the ballot). I admit I'd never considered Bell in that light until recently -- high WAR, great fielder, but fell short on some other metrics. Two questions: 1) What are your thoughts on Buddy's suitability for the Hall? And 2) Related but different question: How likely is it that Bell lands on a future vets committee ballot?

Jay Jaffe

3:06

As, I'm quoted multiple times within that piece, you've already gotten a good chunk of my thoughts. Bell, not Graig Nettles, inherited the annual AL 3B Gold Glove after Brooks Robinson's time was done – he won six to Nettles' 2 or 3, had a higher batting average but slightly lower OPS+ than Nettles, and nowhere near the platform given that he never played in (let alone dazzled in) a postseason. He wouldn't be a bad choice for the Hall but it's tough to make a case he should cut the line ahead of Rolen, Allen, Boyer, Nettles, or even Bando, all of whom are within a few points of the WAR/JAWS standards in either direction. Particularly given how much work his defense is doing within that ranking, I don't see him as getting on a ballot anytime soon — his offense and general profile just don't scream for a vote.

Nat

3:06

With your new focus on KBO, have you started to learn the Korean alphabet (Hangul)? I have been starting to piece it together during late night baby care sessions and I'm finding it extremely satisfying to sound out the players' names on their jerseys.

Jay Jaffe

3:07

Alas, I'm nowhere on that front. Very intimidated, in fact.

Dave

3:07

Short of accepting less than 100% of their pro rated salary, is there any reasonable concession the players can offer that would make the owners sign off on a deal? I’d have thought the offer of expanded playoffs and all the accompanying TV money would get it done, but apparently not.

Jay Jaffe

3:09

I still think it's the guarantee of an expanded postseason that will be the biggest factor in getting this done. It's the biggest chip the players have, and particularly with a shorter season, a better way to ensure that the "right" teams at least get a chance to compete for the championship even with a slow start or finish to the wee season.

Gus-bert

3:10

So, what happens to players who were on one year contracts (Mookie Betts) for 2020 only. They're free agents and the traded players were had for nothing?

Jay Jaffe

3:12

Yes. A tough break but the Dodgers, in particular, will survive the loss of Verdugo, and if they want Betts baldly enough they can put on their big boy pants and bid on his services for 2021 and beyond, as I said last week.

stever20

3:12

how many guys will get QO's this offseason?

Jay Jaffe

3:14

the QO may well be a bargaining chip in the negotiations — eliminating it as a small way to juice free agency next winter. So I wouldn't think too hard yet about who might get one.

Duck

3:14

Thanks for the responses Jay! Good point on KBO/NPB. But re: CPBL, I think most of games are back to being freely streamed on Twitter. That's one of the main reasons I've kept with it - it fits my morning nicely. Really appreciate the Asian baseball coverage from Fangraphs this year though.

Jay Jaffe

3:14

Thank you! Hoping to keep up the beat at least a bit myself

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

3:15

Recs for that part of Cape Cod:
Briar Lane Jams and Jellies in Wellfleet is fantastic, always stock up when I'm in the area.
The Knack in Orleans is a solid fast casual option and will be open this summer.
Sesuit Harbor Cafe's seared tuna sandwich is to die for.
I'm not a lobster roll guy, but my family will vouch for Young's.
Hot Chocolate Sparrow for all your silly coffee needs. Big fan of the frozen monkey (cold hot chocolate and banana).
Cottage Street Bakery. Get the dirt bombs.

Jay Jaffe

3:15

Thanks

Guest

3:15

With the Kjerstad pick isn't it that they agree to the deal before pick is made? Basically, we will pick you here if you agree to this much money. If you don't you will get picked later and make less.

Jay Jaffe

3:15

That's the general way those things go down; I must concede I haven't been paying close enough attention to know the particulars on this one.

Quarantino Martinez

3:17

Re: baseball books for kids - Hector the Collector (by Emily Beeny), while not mostly about baseball, does bring up baseball card collecting (and is generally adorable).

Mike Ortman

3:17

As relations get worse between the owners and the players, too bad we won’t get to see Marvin Miller’s induction into the Hall this summer. Any word so far on how that will look next summer? Is someone speaking on his behalf, since the family has said no dice?

Jay Jaffe

3:19

I hadn't heard much about how that might go before the whole shebang got postponed. I think there's some thought that a Hall of Famer like Joe Torre, who was big in the union during Miller's tenure, could be somebody who would speak

Mad Joe-Don

3:19

Right now there are 235 major-league players in the Hall of Fame (I'm not worrying about execs, Negro-Leaguers, etc.) Do you think that number is about right? If not, about how big should the hall be?

Jay Jaffe

3:20

Really tough to say. I can ID about 20 guys that I feel strongly about election, but i can also point to guys who shouldn't be in, and with every year, the total number of how big it "should" be grows.

Curtis

3:20

Does a COVID Flag still fly forever? Would it mean less to the Yankees and more to say the Mariners or Rangers?

Jay Jaffe

3:21

Eh, possibly. I don't think the Dodgers celebrate 1981 less than their other titles, though, so I'm not sure the Yankees would forget about winning this one.

Murph

3:22

What do you think Mookie Betts signs for in the off-season? There’s at least two teams (LAD + BOS) with strong incentives to sign him. No way he gets the $400+ million he was asking for, but is 300+ still attainable?

Jay Jaffe

3:22

I think we have to see if there's a season before knowing whether $300M is attainable but my hunch is still yes.

Zonk

3:24

Friendly Fisherman on Route 6 in Eastham has the best Lobster Rolls....don't take my word for it, Yankee Magazine sez so!

Soundwave

3:25

Is it just the boyish good looks that make Will Smith remind me of Buster Posey or is there something similar there in the skill-set?

Jay Jaffe

3:27

A better question for Longenhagen than myself but I think that despite the strong rookie showing, there are more questions about Smith's hit tool given his high K rate than there were about Posey

Mike Ortman

3:28

Do you think the ASG in LA will just be postponed to next year?

Jay Jaffe

3:28

Next year is already scheduled for Atlanta, so my guess is that the Dodgers would get 2022 (if it's not already spoken for internally) or '23.

3:29

Ok folks, it's my time to sign off. Thanks so much for showing up — biggest turnout in awhile! – and asking some great questions. We'll do this again next week, and in the meantime, let's keep our fingers crossed that the situation for 2020 MLB looks better at this time next week. Stay safe!

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