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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/17/22
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
I'm not a scout or a prospect guy but I think that generally refers to a big player who has the so-called "projectable frame" — a guy who looks like he could add muscle. McKenzie is a Giacometti sculpture, and I don't know where you put the meat on him LOL.
The Dude
2:44
Trea Turner over/under $250m next contract?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:45
Unless he picks up the pace a bit and more or less matches last year's production, I'll take the under because he'll be heading into his age-30 season
Bill DeWallet
2:45
If Goldschmidt wins the MVP this year and then gracefully declines for the rest of his 30s is  getting in the Hall ?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:47
I don't think he needs an MVP award to become Hallworthy. He's matched the peak standard and is about 1 WAR away from turning this into one of his top seven seasons and further increasing it.

First Base (24th):
54.4career WAR |42.27yr-peak WAR |48.3JAWS |5.8WAR/162
  Average HOF 1B (out of 23):
    65.5 career WAR | 42.1 7yr-peak WAR | 53.8 JAWS | 4.9 WAR/162
Farhandrew Zaidman
2:48
Lobster rolls or crab cakes? Assume they are both sourced from their respective peak sources.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:48
oh man, tough call. I generally prefer lobster but crab is more bang for the buck and a good crab cake is tough to beat.
hi
2:48
any idea when riley greene gets called up? he's not exactly lighting it up in toledo. does he need to?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
Given the ****show in Detroit right now and the struggles of Torkelson, i don't see why you'd call him up into that mess unless he was absolutely tearing up Toledo. And I think he really has to do that.
Logan
2:50
If the HOF came to you and said we will throw open our archives and our artifact collection for you to guest curate any exhibit you'd like, what would that exhibit be?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
Oh wow. Offhand, i'd say do something centered around Minnie Miñoso, covering the Negro Leagues, the early years of integration when the quota system prevented him from cracking the Cleveland lineup, and the gradual influx of Latin (and esp. Cuban) players for whom he became such an icon.

That, or something about the Dodgers being the franchise that represents the game's melting pot – integration and international.
Sirras
2:53
Jay, you can't drop a rumor like that and say nothing! You're killing us!!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
In the words of Bugs Bunny, ain't I a stinker?
Marshall
2:54
I Greinke done?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
if he can't strike out more than 11% of hitters, I don't know how he's going to survive for long. The hitters will tell us if he's done — if he doesn't first.
Marty McFlyball
2:57
I'm genuinely more curious about the math than a fan who thinks Fangraphs metrics hates my favorite team: Why do the Postseason odds still favor the Astros over the Yankees?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
Huh? they don't except for better odds of winning the division, and that's because the Blue Jays are stronger competition than the Angels. The Yankees have the World Series edge, 12.7% to 12.6%
Marty McFlyball
2:58
Is Kevin Gausman really worth 25% more wins above replacement than the next best starting pitcher in baseball?

What am I missing?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
His fWAR is off the charts because his walk and home run rates are so low while he's throwing so many innings. By bWAR, which goes by runs allowed, he's not even in the AL's top 10. As usual, the truth is probably somewhere in between
The Dude
3:02
Who gets the bigger overall contract: Ohtani or Soto?  Different answer by AAV?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
Soto gets the longer deal because of the more predictable nature of hitters, Ohtani the higher AAV because holy Jesus Alou there's nobody like him on the planet.
Farhandrew Zaidman
3:04
Do you think MLB's (eventual) switch to a schedule where every team plays every other team each year will have an aggregate affect on players' HOF candidacy? Boost players who spent their careers in strong divisions and hurts players in weak ones?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
the balanced schedule more or less does away with the distinction of divisions as they pertain to scheduling, so if anything I think this does more to even things out than to boost or hinder players in certain divisions.
Max Power
3:06
The Willie Calhoun situation is weird.  When farmed a month ago, he wanted to be traded and claimed that the org was making him change his swing (see Matt Carpenter).   Then he was DFA'ed...and passed through waivers unclaimed.  Instead of selecting free agency (which was his right), he accepted the assignment to AAA again to keep his major league salary.   Now Texas has a disgruntled player (w/o much of a position) playing out the string this year.  I was surprised no one took a chance on him in another org.   Your thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
He's 27, has produced -2.2 WAR in 927 PA, and is a liability on defense. I mean, that's as replacement level as it gets even before we're talking about resisting the organization's suggestion to change his swing.

The KBO beckons, methinks.
David
3:08
Cody bellinger is doing better than last year but still has a wRC+ under 100. Is it time to be concerned or will he bounce back?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
I was optimistic at the outset of the season but not so much now. I can't even keep track of all the tinkering.
Sullen in San Diego
3:10
How much longer can the Padres win with no offense?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
They literally have a league-average offense (100 wRC+) and six of their 10 players with 100 PA have a 107 wRC+ or better. They're scoring 4.75 runs per game. What exactly are you expecting?
Homer
3:12
You digging Spencer Strider?  I think he's a blast to watch with the finish on his pitches, and that 'stache!
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:13
Impressive early returns. The question is whether either the slider or change  — or both — can be consistent enough to give him multiple looks from a lineup. The numbers so far say yes, but SSS.
Homer
3:14
You have any thoughts on Gavin Lux?  His hit tool and power were pretty highly rated coming out of MiLB, yet he hasn't shown much I"d argue.  Thank you.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:16
He always had high groundball rates so I'm not surprised that under less hospitable conditions he's not showing as much power but jeez, after ups and downs over the past few years the guy is carrying a .364 OBP and 114 wRC+ while contributing at 2B and LF. He's having a nice season.
3B HoF
3:17
Does something like 2,000 hits/350 HRs/65 WAR and another 5 or so GG get Arenado into the Hall? By those numbers, he'd be a bit short via JAWS, but would still have a reputation as the best Def 3B of his generation. (Yes, he'll likely finish with way more hits, but I'm starting conservatively here)
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
He's got six more years under contract and already has 1,419 hits so if he only gets to 2,000 then something has gone very wrong.
He's got work to do to get to the Hall but I think it's quite doable
JG
3:19
Was 2019 peak Bregman?  Any tangible reasons he's been on such a downer since then?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:20
He's had a lot of injuries, and while he hits the ball in the air more often than, say, Lux, he doesn't hit the ball that hard that consistently (single-digit barrel rates), so again, I'm not surprised that the power isn't what it used to be.
Guest
3:20
Could Adujar have a starting role of the Yankees traded him or is he just looking for a more important bench role?
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