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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 6/17/25
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
Howdy, folks! Welcome to another edition of my weekly chat! It's a grey day in Brooklyn as we're amid a week of rainy weather, and I've got the occasional sounds of workers demolishing our rotting backyard deck right outside my window (https://bsky.app/profile/jayjaffe.bsky.social/post/3lrst55laqs2y).
Yesterday I wrote about Cole Ragans' rotator cuff strain and the state of the Royals' rotation https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-royals-have-lost-cole-ragans-for-awhil...
12:03
Today I've got a piece on Jo Adell that should be published sometime during this chat. He had a dreadful March/April but has been very good since the start of May, and especially good in June.
Matt VW
12:03
Do you think the Devers trade would have still been there in two weeks? As a Red Sox fan, I hate the deal but would have to concede that the timing of it made it feel even worse than it was.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:06
Good question. This deal is a noteworthy exception to my recent declaration about how few substantial trades happen in May or June, with everybody looking to the deadline. I've seen conflicting reports about the extent to which the Red Sox tried to trade Devers — how many teams they spoke to besides the Giants. Given the underwhelming return, it sure doesn't feel as though they dealt him to the highest bidder, and they'd have gotten more for him at a higher-leverage period in late July. Then again, this trade appears to be primarily about dumping his salary and sending a my-way-or-the-highway message to the impressionable youths in the Red Sox clubhouse.
12:07
I don't think there would have been much harm for the Sox in waiting at least until the end of June, but if they had continued winning, they might have talked themselves out of it. This way they get to look like hardasses, which as we know is the most important part of being a baseball executive.
Matt
12:07
Hey Jay, between Machado, Ramirez and Arenado, who would you give the best odds for HOF induction? The worst? Thanks for your great work on HOF articles and general FG content!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
I think they all get there but I'd probably go Ramírez, Machado, Arenado in order of likelihood. A larger share of Arenado's value comes from defense, his offensive totals are boosted by his time at Coors Field, and he's been pretty ordinary over the past two-plus seasons. Machado has a legitimate chance at 3,000 hits, as I noted last week (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-manny-machado-revival/), though he doesn't have the good-guy reputation that Ramírez has; indeed, he's been cast as the villain quite often for a superstar.
Colton
12:16
We've seen a lot of top prospects made their debut this season. Who is the next "big" prospect to make their mark on the big leagues this season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
Maybe Andrew Painter? His raw numbers aren't so hot due to a couple of recent bad starts, and I don't have a scouting report but the Phillies, like everyone else in contention, are going to need more pitching, and he's the top prospect in that department.
Billy Bob
12:19
is there a HR or WAR number that Cal Raleigh could hit to be your MVP?(assuming health to Judge)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:20
I don't have a number in mind, but it's going to be very difficult to pick against a guy who might win the traditional and slash-stat Triple Crowns, exceed 10 WAR again, AND challenge his own AL home run record.
Lowe Distribution System
12:25
Let's ask the obvious question: is Devers on a HOF path?  Is he still if he's a 1B/DH from here on?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:27
I don't see him as such, no. he's only had one 5-bWAR season, and only two above 4.0 bWAR, because his subpar defense at 3B weighs him down — though not as much as full-time DH duty will. He's leaving behind an excellent hitter's park for a difficult one. if he gets to 500 homers he's got a fighting chance, I guess, but it's not like he's young Giancarlo Stanton; he has 215 nearing the halfway point of his age-29 season.
MF Luder
12:27
Are you participating in Michael Baumann’s Fan Exchange? I’m giving it a try and watching a few Marlins games—should be some combination of fun and interesting.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:28
no, because the teams I watch the most — the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, and Padres, roughly in that order — are too compelling.
Carl
12:28
How much does Devers actually help the Giants?  Enough to catch the Dodgers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
Even if Devers closes up one big hole in the lineup — and he most certainly does — they're still not getting much offense from catcher or the middle infield, and they only have two good starting pitchers. The Dodgers have underperformed due to injuries but they just have more depth, including that fella who pitched the first inning last night.
Hazmat Corntail
12:32
is Matt Shaw looking like another version of Ke’Bryan Hayes? Shaw has more lift in the swing and Hayes is obviously a better defender, but when I look at the other numbers, they seem really similar.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:33
I think it's a big mistake to judge a prospect who's scuffled a bit during his first two months in comparison to a guy who's spent about half a decade failing to live up to his expectations.
12:34
That said, you'd obviously like to see Shaw hit the ball harder than — good grief — an average of 82.6 mph
Guest
12:35
Kyle Harrison, good fastball and not much else. Is it unrealistic to think his career trajectory is more like Tony Cingrani as a fastball heavy reliever with a couple good years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:37
The stuff hasn't shown up at the big league level yet but I wouldn't give up hope that a few tweaks here and there can help him live up to his billing as a 55-FV prospect.
Hazmat Corntail
12:37
Are we still looking at Josh Jung as a guy with upside, or is he just what he is, decent power and average hitter who will streak and slump his way to fine numbers, but nothing you won’t want to upgrade from?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
It's hard to judge Jung because he's missed so much time due to injuries, some of which (the fractures) have been freakish in nature. He's played fewer games since 2023 than he did that season. That said, it's understandable to expect more from him; his average exit velo is down 4 mph from 2023, and that suggests he needs some fixing.
Q-Ball
12:43
Hey Jay!  I stay out on Pleasant Point every year (on Blackfish Creek), and kayak all the time up into Drummer's Cove.  Let me know when you're around, and you can stand in line for me at PB!grinning
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:44
heading up to Wellfleet in late June, a couple weeks later than we have been going because we're on a different school calendar than before. Looking forward to it!
Devers trade
12:44
I feel like all the spreadsheet heads (I say this as one myself) calling this trade a win for the Red Sox because they get financial flexibility are completely missing the human element. They just traded away their best hitter while in a playoff spot. A guy who has won a ring for them and is in year two of a ten year contract. And this is after trading away a future hall of famer, explicitly so they could afford said contract. Like, that financial flexibility is completely worthless, because no one is ever signing with them again without a massive overpay.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
The thing I keep coming back to is that being a superstar in Boston means being exactly one step from management running you out of town on a rail. I don't know how anyone considering a long-term contract in Boston can have any faith that they'll complete the deal there, but then for the player that may not be the whole point — locking in the high salary is, and putting up with the bullshit that comes from being employed by John Henry and a by-no-means permanent POBO is part of the deal.
Theo be Praised
12:49
Coming into this year I was a Michael Busch skeptic.  Was I wrong to be skeptical?  What's Busch doing this year differently?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
I think last year he showed he can be a productive major league regular, and this year he's chasing less, striking out WAY less (down 5.5%), and making better contact, including more pull and almost no pop-ups.
12:51
I don't think you were wrong to be skeptical — we all want to see if a player can improve upon a solid rookie season, especially one who was an over-aged rookie (he was 26 last year)
MF Luder
12:52
I know you get peppered with Hall of Fame questions, but here’s another: Framber Valdez—fringe HOF candidate?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
I wouldn't call any active starting pitcher beyond Kershaw/Verlander/Scherzer and Sale more than a fringe HOFer right now, and Framber, who has 17.7 career bWAR, isn't close to the line where I'd think about him. He's checked a few boxes, postesason-wise, and has some good run prevention relative to the league, but his high for bWAR is 4.4, his second-highest is 3.4. He needs some huge seasons to emerge as even a "real" fringe candidate
MF Luder
12:56
Do you think Bryce Eldridge was off the table in the Devers deal?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:56
yes
Alf
12:56
Hi Jay! Overthinking Giants fan here. Forgetting all of the position-changing drama between Devers and the Red Sox, how big of a defensive sacrifice would the Giants be making by trying him at second base? With top hitting prospect Bryce Eldridge being groomed for first at AAA and the obvious problem of sticking a 28 year old with eight and a half years left of his contract at DH, should the Giants consider it (or perhaps try it next spring)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
Second base is further to the right on the defensive spectrum, meaning that it's generally considered harder to play. Devers' big problem is his lateral mobility, and he's a big boy so... of all the things that aren't going to happen, this is one of them.
Maddoning
12:58
It's not great seeing Mike Trout be mortal.  For the record, he's already going to the HoF on your ballot, right?  Regardless of what happens now?
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