JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 6/17/25

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 6/17/25

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Jay Jaffe

1:00

absolutely, unless he's involved in some kind of scandal. The guy reached the JAWS standard for center fielders before his 27th birthday! https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mike-trout-is-now-an-average-hall-of-famer...

MF Luder

1:01

Trevor Story has looked like his old self in June. Too soon to say he's 'back'?

Jay Jaffe

1:02

.241/.292/.410 (91 wRC+) since I wrote about him on May 22, with barrel and hard-hit rates within a point of his season averages. Yes, too early to say he's "back"

Guest

1:02

It can't be true the Sox didn't communicate with other teams and give them a chance can it? As a Phillies fan I would think they had a more attractive package to offer and a pitcher with a contract they'd like to include in T. Walker. I would think ABEL, T. Walker, Marsh or Rojas and a prospect not named Craw-Miller or Painter would be a nice get...

Jay Jaffe

1:04

Where would the Phillies play Devers given Harper at first and Schwarber at DH? Surely not at third base given that he hasn't played there all season and was trending badly before.

Judging by the return I think the Sox prioritized getting the whole contract off their books ahead of getting high-quality talent in return, and beyond the positional fit, I'm not convinced Philadelphia would have eaten it all.

Blake

1:05

What does Altuve need to make the HOF at this point? Does he need another big season to boost his peak (in a JAWS7 kind of way)? Milestones? Counting stat accumulation? DRS has been brutal to Altuve with -11 (3rd worst in the majors) resulting in a -0.2 bWAR for the year to date. OAA has been much kinder at a mere -1, to go along with a 1.0 fWAR.

Jay Jaffe

1:06

I think it's mostly accumulation and milestones. he's at 2,306 hits, and has a good shot at 3,000 (41% based on ZiPS as noted in the Machado piece)

1:08

I think he'll be light in JAWS (he's at 46.5, 0.1 ahead of Pedroia and 0.4 ahead of Kinsler) but if he gets to about 50, the trad stats and reputation will probably carry the day.

Cool Lester Smooth

1:10

Hi Jay! Just wanted to know if you've checked out the Pitcher View on Savant's OAA leaderboard - it gives you the absolute number of Fielding Run Value for each individual pitcher.

Jay Jaffe

1:11

Not in awhile. It's an interesting look at who's been helped the most/least based on their metrics. See https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Pit...

'23 Yankees Survivor

1:12

Yankees offense has fallen silent over the last five games, have you seen reason for concern going forward or is it just a natural dip in production during the season?

Jay Jaffe

1:14

Right now i'd chalk it up to the ebb and flow of the season, but it's not great that Goldschmdt, Bellinger, Rice, Grisham, and Dominguez have all been terrible lately, with a 77 wRC+ or worse over the past 14 days

Chili Davis Eyes

1:14

Zack Wheeler says he’s retiring when his contract is up. If so, that puts the kibosh on his already somewhat-slim HoF chances, right?

Jay Jaffe

1:16

To these eyes, probably. He's only at 37.5 bWAR, ranks 182nd in S-JAWS, and has two All-Star appearances. I can name 20 guys with 50 bWAR I'd give stronger consideration to.

Tacoby Bellsbury

1:16

How long do you think Shohei Ohtani will be able to pitch and bat before hanging up his glove (or transitioning back to the outfield)?

Jay Jaffe

1:17

I wish I knew. I'd think at least a few years but obviously a major injury – and not even an arm one — could derail that.

>this guy with boring questions<

1:18

Jay, in your opinion, which team or player is biggest positive surprise this year so far, and which is negative?

Jay Jaffe

1:20

Teamwise, I didn't expect the Tigers to be the AL's best or anywhere near this good, and likewise, I didn't expect the Giants to be this strong, even given the caveats above. On the negative, even while criticizing the Orioles' inability to offset the loss of Burnes, I didn't expect them to stink on ice, and the Braves' crash is pretty surprising.

Polar Bear

1:21

There's been a lot of talk about whether 500 home runs means the HOF for Stanton. What about Pete? Would 500 home runs be an automatic ticket? If not, what else would he need to do? He doesn't look like a Hall of Famer (though either does Stanton), but he is halfway to 500 at 30, despite debuting at 24 and missing 2/3 of a season in 2020.

Jay Jaffe

1:24

I certainly think 500 would give him a chance but... I'm not seeing much of a resumé here given that he's only got one 5-WAR season (his rookie year) — though TBF he's on pace for a second — and has had more decent seasons than great ones. He's got 22.7 bWAR midway through his age-30 season and his defense is trending towards full-time DH duty at some point.

Guest

1:25

of the 57 players with 650+ PA vs RHP since the start of 2024, Goldschmidt ranks 56th with an 89 wRC+ (Volpe 57th but they don't really have a SS logjam) - it seems pretty unpopular to short side platoon this, and surely the yankees knew he struggled last year vs RHP when they signed him. seems like the right move though? (until Stanton gets hurt again...)

Jay Jaffe

1:27

Yeah, it's tough to imagine it happening full-scale but at the very least, with Stanton back it would make good sense to spot Ben Rice (132 wRC+ against righties this year) against some righties. Whether Aaron Boone and the Yankees have the will to try it, we'll see.

Pistol Pete

1:29

Following up on your recent article, how do you see the Baty, Mauracio, Acuna, Vientos mess shaping up for this year? 2026? Vientos is the only one who has been a reliable offensive threat, but his defense is possibly unplayable. Baty and Mauracio can make the plays, but whether or not they can hit remains a very open question. And Acuna has utility man written all over him (not that there's anything wrong with that). My guess is in 2026, Vientos is an almost fulltime DH, Acuna is the 26th man, and the third baseman is not currently on this roster.

Jay Jaffe

1:31

I think Vientos has the highest upside — we saw it last year — but the current version isn't anywhere close to reliable, and he's trending in the wrong direction; he's not even hitting well enough to justify supplanting Starling Marte at DH. I suspect they trade either him or Baty this summer.

Rick

1:32

Think Jordan Walker needs a change of scenery before it's too late? I think Marmol screwed him over last year and set him back.

Jay Jaffe

1:34

I think in two years I'll be writing about Walker the way I write about Adell now. He's got some loud tools but the parts just don't fit together because he doesn't make enough contact, and when he does, it's not good contact often enough. Maybe a change of scenery would help, but I don't know who's looking at him and eager to give it a whirl.

PCA

1:35

Do you think PCA is able to maintain offensive production? As a Cubs fan I love watching him play but his low OBP and free swinging style gives me javy baez flashbacks

Jay Jaffe

1:37

His production is in line with his quality of contact despite his high chase rate, so I'm not terribly worried right now, but it wouldn't surprise me if pitchers adjust and start throwing him even fewer strikes and pushing his production down.

jupiterbrando

1:40

Jay, it seems like every week you get asked whether some 34-year old with 30 career WAR is a fringe HoFer. But if you -had- to induct a player to the hall with 30 career WAR (or less), who would it be?

Jay Jaffe

1:42

it would probably be a Negro Leagues or pre-Negro Leagues star. I was very impressed by Cannonball Redding when I wrote him up a few years ago, and I would have voted for John Donaldson. I'm probably skirting your imagined "rules" for the question, and likewise might be even if I picked a reliever (Joe Nathan, whom I voted for and who ranks seventh in R-JAWS).

Guest

1:44

A Chapman having an under the radar amazing season. Best ERA of his career. *If he didn't have off-field issues* (which are horrible and reasonably disqualifying, but let's put them aside for the sake of the thought exercise), what would you think about his HOF case?

Jay Jaffe

1:46

I think Kenley Jansen (10th in R-JAWS, 4th in Saves) and Craig Kimbrel (18th and 5th) have uphill battles ahead of them, so Chapman (17th and 14th) probably faces an even steeper climb even if he had zero baggage. And that's not the case

OK ,folks, still some good questions in the queue but it's time for me to toodle-oo. Thanks so much for stopping by!

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