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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/18/24
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
I think that even if we get the challenge system version of ABS — which seems to be more likely than the every-pitch version as players and teams greatly prefer it — we'll see some rejiggering of the strike zone, and that could help address the issue
Philly Steve
2:57
Are the 2024 Phillies the best team in modern history? Seems like a good shot that Harper, Turner, Schwarber, Nola and Wheeler all make it into Cooperstown.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
Keep your pants on, Steve. Harper is increasingly likely to wind up in Cooperstown, and Nola probably has the best shot of any pitcher this side of Gerrit Cole, but Wheeler got a late start and is going to have to remain exceptionally durable and effective, and neither Turner nor Schwarber are on HOF tracks statistically; the latter's best season by bWAR is 3.2, and his next-best is 2.3. Good luck with that.
Jake Rogers Appreciator
3:00
Appreciated the Flaherty article! I feel like his bounceback has gone a bit under the radar given how awesome Skubal has been. You mentioned at the end he's a good trade or extension candidate, what would you do with him if you were in charge in Detroit?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:01
Glad you enjoyed the piece. He's clearly taken to working with the current coaches so I think if he's open to an extension I'd try to re-sign him.
MH
3:02
How astonishing is it that Brandon Belt has not found a new team yet?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
It's a bit of a surprise but he's a limited player, as a DH who could occasionally play first. Even given last year's impressive wRC+, he didn't hit the ball tremendously hard, and so he was way ahead of his Statcast expected numbers, plus his strikeout rate spiked, I doubt he hasn't had *any* offers, but the question of money and pathway to regular playing time may have been issues that prevented him from signing. Not everybody is willing to come to camp on a minor league deal or, at this stage, spend a month riding the buses or in extended spring training in order to try to justify a roster spot.
Guest
3:06
You jinxed Jo Adell! ; )
It would appear those gains from the article have dissipated. Any hope left besides a change of scenery and/or a miracle?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
Ha! Ouch. Adell seemed to have adjusted but the league adjusted back. Hopefully he can still call upon that brief success, but I do wonder where his head must be at given his recent numbers.
Red sox fan
3:08
The initial reports had Breslow> Bloom.  How does it look to you now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
Breslow >>> Bloom
Ben
3:10
With Means/Bradish out, how many of the starting pitchers that the Orioles have left are legitimate playoff starters. Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez and???
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:10
Cole Irwin is probably OK as a fourth starter on a short leash but they clearly need one more good pitcher in the mix to go with those two.
Nick
3:11
Nice article on Flaherty!                     How do you consume baseball during the season? Do you focus on one game? Have multiple screens? Always curious to hear how the analysts / writers watch the games
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:14
on most nights, if I'm watching I tend to default to Yankees or Mets games in the 7 pm slot and/or Dodgers games in the 10 pm slot, then flip around if those games are lopsided or I know I'm writing about somebody on another team. Sometimes that means going back the next day and watching segments of an archived game to get a feel for what was happening in a big inning or with an injury or something. It varies.
Reds Enjoyer
3:15
Thanks as always for the chat Jay. How much of the blame for the Cubs season so far does Jed Hoyer deserve? From the outside looking in, it looks more like they've been victims of unforeseen regression (e.g. Dansby, Alzolay) than actual poor roster construction.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:20
Some of the blame has to fall on the players. I'm not sure what to make of Swanson and Hoerner struggling so badly. The rotation has been good, and the acquisition of Michael Busch is holding up well. Bellinger has been unremarkable but he's hardly the biggest problem. I've never been convinced about Morel as more than a stopgap, and the bullpen is a fright. So, some of the blame has to fall on Hoyer and some on Counsell as well, but I don't think there's a single thing you can point to and say THIS is the cause of their problems.
Guest
3:21
You think Walker Buehler can get back on the right track this season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:25
The velocity is there, but the stuff is down and so is the coommand. I think it's going to take some time for him to figure out what works now as opposed to what worked 2018-22.
Correa
3:25
Correa is having a great year and even better past few weeks.  He gets lost in the shuffle of amazing AL SS but what are your thoughts on his HOF path?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:26
Hoping to write about him soon. I still think he's in good shape HOFwise, especially if this hot streak heralds a return to his previous level of performance
KC Pain
3:27
Why are so many teams (it seems, def not the Padres) apprehensive to make moves early vs deadline?  Flaherty aggravated something already and youd think their need of bats, plus surplus of arms Madden, Manning, Jobe, etc. a move would be done now vs gambling on 6 weeks.  Plus, didnt the Tigers do this with Fuller (Fullmer?)), Boyd, and then botch the landing with ERod and Lange last year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:31
Mainly because nobody wants to look dumb by making a trade too early and feeling like they overspent as buyers or undersold as sellers. So the timing matters — and I think most teams are going to wait as long as they can before convincing themselves (and ownership) that they're truly out of it. Let's not forget that the high cost of selling now includes a major PR hit that can have multiyear ramifications as far as ticket sales and such.
Tjf167
3:31
Given how many "bad" choices are already in the HOF, where would you set the career WAR line at for there just not being an argument for letting guys kn
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:32
With the exception of catchers, relievers, and mid-career players, I don't think we have much to discuss until a guy hits about 50 WAR.
Nate
3:32
Is Aaron Judge the guy that likely breaks through the Rule of 2,000 (hits) with the BBWAA?  Or do you see anyone else out there that might get there sooner with the BBWAA?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:33
I think Andruw Jones or Chase Utley could be the ones to topple the Rule of 2,000 long before Judge retires. And if they don't, Buster Posey will.
Booney
3:34
Do you value all components of WAR equally (even though, definitionally, this is the point)? Marcus Semien is making an interesting late career HOF case, yet even if he gets to 60 or so career WAR, part of me wonders how is overall resume will be viewed if he continues to rack up a lot of that from the defensive side. He's on pace to have another ~6 WAR year but with a rather unremarkable .750-ish OPS and a heavy contribution from dWAR
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:35
I always want to know multiple defensive measures if possible, even if they're contradictory. I think most voters are harder to convince than I am with regards to defensive value which is why a shorter career/higher peak guy like Utley, Andruw, or Semien could have a tougher time breaking through.
Tjf167
3:35
The mid 80s Yankees weren't even able to make the playoffs with apex Rickey Henderson, Winfield and Mattingly. Easily the worst waste of a core. Trout/Ohtani up there though.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:36
Trout and Ohtani have never been surrounded by enough good players but yeah those Yankees teams were certainly disappointing given all of the talent they squandered.
Guest
3:37
but how to increase SP innings and decrease SP injuries
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:37
If I knew the answer to this I wouldn't be chatting here, alas.
KJ
3:38
What's your go to place for oysters in/around Wellfleet?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:40
Mac's Shack is probably my top spot for oysters (ran into a famous baseball writer there last night!). I had them a couple nights ago at Winslow Tavern and they were tasty but had a bit too many shell fragments for me to enjoy them to the max — and in an area where most of the oysters are of the same variety, the delivery matters.
Truro local
3:41
love the outer cape shout out!!!!
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:42
My favorite Cape restaurant is Blackfish in Truro! Headed there later this week!
glyonstribe
3:42
Lindor's got the hype and the contract, but Ramirez is ahead in most stats.  Who would you take for the rest of their careers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:46
Some people tend to talk about Lindor as though his defense doesn't matter. It's not an either-or proposition where one can just compare his offensive numbers to a slugging third baseman and consider the matter settled. If I'm working with their current contracts I'd rather have the less expensive Ramirez, sure, since they're vaguely similar in value, but if I needed more defense I could do pretty well with Lindor at short.
Guest
3:46
Jay do you think there will be a pull back with sports betting partnerships with MLB given the leagues history with gambling and the issues that have already appeared?
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