JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 6/2/26

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 6/2/26

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Philip Christy

12:54

Bobby Witt is leading in Fangraphs' Defense stat, on the Fangraphs leaderboards. He's also first in WAR. How often is baseball's top defender also its top player overall? Also, about time he wins an MVP huh?

Jay Jaffe

12:55

Not often, but Cal Rikpen Jr. comes to mind thanks to a thing I wrote for this past weekend's subscriber mailbag https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-weekly-mailbag-may-30-2026/

12:56

He tops our leaderboards in defense in both 1984 (when he was almost completely ignored in the MVP voting, which was the topic for the mailbag) and 1991.

Jeremy Fox

12:57

Odds that Christopher Sanchez can break the scoreless inning streak record?

Jay Jaffe

12:58

this is where we need Dan Szymborski to weigh in with some binomial wizardry instead of me.

1:01

Sanchez needs 14 2/3 scoreless innings to surpass Orel Hershiser's record, which looks to me like it borders on needing a third outing instead of just two because the odds of him giving up that run have to be higher late in the game when he's going through the order a third time and his pitch count is higher.

1:03

throwing a dart, i'll say he's got a 4% chance, ignoring what I just wrote and figuring he's about 1-in-5 for a scoreless start start of between 7-8 innings, and then 1-in-5 for repeating that.

jtrichey

1:04

Just want to say I love when Lord and (Love)Lady end up in the same boxscore for the Nationals. They have even been back to back a few times out of the pen.

Jay Jaffe

1:05

Box scores reward that kind of attention and oh, does everybody know to sign up for that free box-scores-via-email service? It's a damn delight: https://boxscore.email/mlb

bosoxforlife

1:06

How does Matt Shaw for Brayan Bello sound ?

Jay Jaffe

1:06

like an entry on the list of Things That Are Very Much Not Happening

1:08

I don't know what's up with Bello these days but no contender is looking at him and thinking he's the solution to their pitching injuries AND giving up 5 years of control of a 24-year-old former top-25 prospect

Phil

1:08

The Athletic recently referred to Andrelton Simmons as having once been on a path that, "if he had kept up a similar pace, could have put him in the conversation for an Ozzie Smith-like Hall of Fame berth." Utter nonsense, yes? The Wiz has 2500 hits!

Jay Jaffe

1:09

I read that piece, by Sam Blum, who tracked down Simmons in the Mexican League, where he's playing for the first time since 2022. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7322869/2026/06/01/andrelton-simmons-...

1:12

I think "Ozzie Smith-like" is a stretch but at one point it didn't seem incredibly far-fetched based on watching him accumulate bWAR via high DRS totals, and climb the JAWS rankings. Though his age-28 season he had 33.5 bWAR and was +174 in fielding runs at shortstop, but due to injuries and a steeper offensive decline than anyone expected only added another 3.2 WAR before taking his ball and going home.

war2d2

1:13

I think I gargled my question, I was wondering if you thought the Cubs should try to over-pay for pitching _right now_ vs. waiting until the deadline. I’m assuming they (and everyone else with a shot) will be trying for Skubal if he’s available then, but I was figuring the Twins would be willing to deal Ryan (or the Marlins with Sandy) right now, at this moment, if they were over-paid enough.

Jay Jaffe

1:14

do not gargle with questions! They can scrape the delicate esophageal tissue and cause serious problems.

(I think you meant garble)

1:16

I think for the most part, teams are generally unlikely to trade the type of players who will be coveted deadline pieces this far ahead of the deadline because they have much more leverage in late July and early August. You may get one team giving you a great offer but the temptation is always going to be to get multiple teams in a bidding war and find one acting more irrationally than the others. And looking at the way the Cubs have played this season, I don't think you can approach this with that kind of irrationality on June 2.

1:19

Speaking of which, June 2 is Lou Gehrig Day, the 101st anniversary of his first game of the 2,130 consecutive games he played, and the 85th anniversary of his passing. I'll be breaking out my End ALS t-shirt in honor of Gehrig and MLB.com's Sarah Langs. You can buy one, with proceeds going to Project ALS https://rotowear.com/products/baseball-is-the-best-shirt?srsltid=AfmBO....

glenb0828

1:20

Any hope for Dylan Crews?

Jay Jaffe

1:21

See above! Yes, he's 24 and was considered a top-5 prospect not long ago. I wouldn't give up on him at all.

odin525

1:21

Considering the volatility of pitching arms these days, wouldn't you want to wait as long as possible to make a trade so the inevitable injury doesn't occur on your watch?

Jay Jaffe

1:22

Re: Ryan, yes that's another aspect of this too. You want to make sure he's durable enough to be worth trading for, even if it means you're going to get fewer innings from him

JustinPBG

1:25

What type of player tends to fall off a HOF path faster (aside from surgery etc)? A great defender who can hit pretty well for their career (Semien, say) or a great hitter who can field okay (idk, Stanton, since he used to field well)? Just trying to find current examples even though Stanton may well hold on

Jay Jaffe

1:25

I think hitting tends to age better, because it's less speed-and-mobility dependent than fielding a difficult position

NicklePickers

1:26

What do you think of this new kid Jump? Is he more van Halen or Kris Kross? (Though who's to say which is better...)

Jay Jaffe

1:28

I don't know that I'd wish either Van Halen ("Jump" being the beginning of the end of their greatness) or Kris Kross (one-hit wonders) on Jump, whom I haven't seen yet. Michael Baumann wrote about him the other day, though https://blogs.fangraphs.com/if-you-want-more-more-more-then-jump/

bkgeneral

1:29

What return do you think the Tigers will get if/when they decide to trade Skubal?

Jay Jaffe

1:29

What did I say above? They're going to get three magic beans and then grow a beanstalk that Scott Harris has to climb.

odin525

1:30

There's some rumbling about how the Brewers should break the bank and go after Skubal to win it all (thanks, Rosenthal). Besides generally not being a team that mortgages the future for today, it seems the team Milwaukee is building in the minors will be better than the one on the field now. I know flags fly forever but I really hope they stay the course. Where do you fall?

Jay Jaffe

1:32

I'd love to see this. I think the Brewers might be well-positioned to deal for Skubal without entirely mortgaging their future, and I tend to favor that kind of an aggressive approach.

hamiltonthebabeporter

1:32

how much would Skubal's next contract would need to be increased by if the team wanted to add a clause in it that would limit Boras from making any more stupid puns?

Jay Jaffe

1:32

Boras might ask for an extra zero on the end.

1:33

Ok folks, thanks so much for stopping by, that's it from me this week! Tip your waiters, waitresses, and bartenders, please!

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