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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/23/20
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AvatarJay Jaffe
3:03
Being the best over a small sample isn't a greater accomplishment than being the best over a larger sample, but that's not to say whoever wins it won't be deserving. We'll just have to keep in mind the context of the accomplishment.
Big Joe Mufferaw
3:03
Is Manfried making a case for worst Commish ever?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
You (and I) might find him distasteful, but Peter Ueberroth steered the owners into $280 million worth of collusion penalties and didn't do such a great job in handling the game's cocaine problem. Bowie Kuhn was a clown who managed to find himself on the wrong side of just about every significant issue that crossed his path, but I don't think he did as much damage as Ueberroth.
Big Joe Mufferaw
3:05
If a player played 4 years, and put up all 10+ WAR seasons and retired to go play another sport or something. Could he be voted in the HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
Whoops didn't mean to answer two in a row from the same person. While the Hall board might grant a waiver for to make a player who has appeared in nine seasons eligible if, for some reason, something prevented him from playing his 10th (as was the case with Addie Joss, who died of meningitis), I can't see them doing anything for a player who spent only four years in the bigs and then bailed.
Bob
3:07
Of these ex Yankees. Who has the best chance to make the Hall of Fame, Mattingly, Munson,  Randolph, Guidry or Pettitte?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:10
For my money, it's Munson, who's eighth in peak score among catchers (above the standard) and 12th in JAWS (a bit short, because he died at age 32). Some people feel strongly about Mattingly but I don't see much to write home about; he hasn't fared well in front of the voters, either BBWAA or committee. I don't see Randolph or Guidry ever getting much traction, and while Pettitte's postseason accomplishments give him a lift, he was more workhorse than thoroughbred, and not everybody will forgive and forget his appearance in the Mitchell Report.
Adam
3:10
Are we sticking with the six traditional divisions for 2020? I haven't seen it explicitly but it seems assumed
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:11
So far as I know, that's still the current plan, though there were some thought balloons that floated by offering other ideas in recent months
$/WAR still too damn high!
3:11
Are the Pirates underrated somehow? Bell, Frazier, Newman, Tucker, Hayes, and Gonzalez is a really good infield group, Reynolds is cool, Musgrove is cool...OK maybe just they have some talent
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
They have some interesting guys, prospects as well as young players, but we had them projected for 71 wins over the course of 162 back in March, and a whole lot would have to go right for them to be .500 over the course of a full season. I think their future is brighter than their present.
Hall of fame fan
3:15
Who do you think is the next unanimous hall of famer? it kind of bothers me that the only unanimous hall of famer is a reliever even if hes the best reliever of all time
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:16
As noted in that five-year outlook piece above, Ichiro is probably the next guy who has a shot, but not until the 2025 ballot.
GSon
3:16
With what you know now.. is there a defined statement of the agreement between the Owners and MLBPA.. a.) universal DH, b.) roster size(s), c.) Q.O. for 2021 e.d. will the indians not receive a draft pick/compensation as a guy like Francisco Lindor arrives at free agency after the 2021 season?.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:19
I believe the DH and roster size stuff is in the health and safety protocols dealybob that the players have to approve, but I haven't actually seen it myself. I don't expect there to be there any change to the QO system before the next CBA; there was a chance to tweak it during the negotiations but that all went to hell once they broke down.
Soundwave
3:19
It seems a team like the Rays, who operate on roster churn and utilizing players as controllable assets, would possibly never have a player go into the Hall with a TB on their hat. Can you see that as a detriment to fostering long term fandom?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:19
I don't think it helps, that's for sure.
Ricky F
3:23
To me, there were 7 teams drawing near-dead for a playoff spot under the 162 game schedule. Orioles Mariners Tigers Marlins Pirates Giants Royals. Which do you think has the best shot under the 60-game schedule?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:23
Well, going by Dan Szymborski's 50-game ZiPS projections, it looks like the Pirates and Marlins were the clear leaders of this particularly ignominious pack. So maybe $/WAR was onto something above.  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/one-giant-tournament-might-be-better-than-...
David
3:24
I read in a 538 article that the 95 World Series had higher ratings than the 93 World Series and that 1997 was the 3rd best attended season in baseball history up to that point. Based on that is the idea that the 98 homer run chase saving baseball just a myth?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:24
I think the idea that the 1998 home run chase saved baseball itself is overstated. However, I do think that it stimulated some people to come back to baseball and brought in some new fans at a time when the game dearly needed it.
Mike Ortman
3:25
Speaking of HOF plaques, which one’s are your favorites?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:27
I love the wink at Eddie Gaedel on Bill Veeck's plaque ("A champion of the little guy), and always get moved seeing the plaque of Jackie Robinson, but seeing "my guys" — the players for whom I advocated, the likes of Raines, Martinez, Blyleven, Santo, Trammell, and Edgar Martinez, with Walker and Simmons still pending  — really does move me. I got choked up when I saw the aforementioned when visiting the Hall in February.
Baseball Fan
3:27
I am so conflicted on being so giddy.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:28
Yeah, I wouldn't say I'm giddy about the return of baseball given everything else going on. I am hopeful, though, and that's better than nothing.
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