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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/25/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:02
Good afternoon, folks! I'm back from my annual Cape Cod trip, and i could almost pass for tanned and rested.
2:04
it appears that a technical glitch prevented the word about this chat from getting out until just a short while ago so I'm going to take a couple minutes to finish lunch while the queue fills up
Here's my piece from yesterday — my only piece in the past week — about Mookie Betts' strange season https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mookie-betts-has-been-in-a-funk/
Gary
2:06
Evidence suggests Gary Sanchez got the timing right on his leg kick in the middle of an at-bat in Tampa in May and has been on a tear since then. How often do you think mechnical things are figured out mid-game like this? (Also, hey, he can still hit)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:09
It's been great to see Sanchez turn things around given the unending shit avalanche to which he's been subjected by a certain segment of the local fans and media. Color me skeptical that Sanchez hadn't been experimenting with dropping the leg kick behind the scenes before going that route in-game.
Here's a quote from Aaron Boone via the NY Daily News' Kristie Ackert:

“He’s worked really, really hard behind the scenes too and having the courage to make some real adjustments. But it’s been rooted in a lot of hard work and a lot of hours and correcting that. And now you’re seeing a real quiet, lower half a much more balanced hitter,”
Havok
2:10
Disappointment Scale of 1 to 10, 1 being complete apathy - how disappointing is it for Vlad to not be in the HR derby this year after last year's incredible showing?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
I'd put it in the 3-4 range. Been following the Derby long enough to know that you're never going to get every top choice every year. It'd be great to see if he can win one after coming up just short in 2019, but he's got plenty of time ahead of him for that
Soundwave
2:12
How close is deGrom to being in Koufax territory?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
It's impressive what deGrom is doing and has done, but the shape of their performances is different – he's got much less volume to his body of work, but in a tougher scoring environment
2:15
If we're going straight by JAWS it's 48.9/46.0/47.4 for Koufax versus 43.2/40.5/41.8 for deGrom, but there's about a 7-WAR gap in terms of offense incorporated into that mix (2.7 for JdG, -4.2 (!) for Koufax)
matt
2:16
Did you get to any Cape League games while you were out there?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:17
Yes! Went to Opening Night at Orleans, where we saw the Firebirds play the Harwich Mariners. It was great to be back, and the crowd was very emotional esp. in paying tribute to former commissioner Paul Galop, who died in late May.
BILL
2:17
what best makes Scott Rolen's case for the Hall in your opinion and do you see dick Allen ever getting in
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:19
elite defense (3rd in runs) plus strong offense (9th in OPS+, 16th in batting runs) is a winning combination
That's Rolen. As for Allen, I think he'll get in, albeit with maximum bittersweetness given that he passed away last December.
Soundwave
2:20
Have the Pujols, Miggy, & Votto deals served as a deterrence for teams signing players into their near-40s at big money?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
maybe a little when it comes to the left-spectrum types, but those deals haven't entirely disappeared — Betts is signed through age 39, Harper through 38. They're more athletic than the aforementioned, and so the hope is that they'll age better
Appa Yip Yip
2:23
I think the Vlad derby disappointment thing is more because it's happening at Coors than anything else. I don't really care about the derby but watching Vlad crush taters on the moon would have been something else.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:23
That's fair.
James
2:23
Chris Paddack’s fastball of late is looking closer to his 2019 fastball and he currently has the lowest FIP, xFIP, and SIERA of his career. I wouldn’t have guessed that by the way fans talk about him, though.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:24
right? I said as much via Twitter earlier today — got so many questions to the effect of WHEN ARE THE PADRES GOING TO CUT BAIT AND LAUNCH HIM INTO THE SUN WITH THAT 4.00 FIP earlier this season. Patience with young pitchers is always the preferred route.
Guest
2:25
Rolen in the HoF?   BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
he got 52.9% of the vote in 2021, a strong indicator that he's headed there eventually. You don't have to show up for his induction — we'll party like hell without you
Jung Bong Jovi
2:26
Does Atlanta even have anyone to sell at the deadline?  Charlie Morton maybe?  I don't see getting much in return for any of the relievers, except maybe Matzek.  And I hope Freeman signs longterm.  Just an ugly season for them that doesn't seem to be turning around any time soon.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
I'd be surprised if they do a big teardown because they're not that far out of the NL East race and the talent should be performing better; they're more likely to add a starting pitcher and hope for the best. If they do decide to sell, they'll never trade Freeman, but among their other pending free agents besides Morton are Smyly, d'Arnaud, Greene, and Sandoval, any of whom could be of some use to a contender even if it's not as their first choice or top solution.
A Redicent fan
2:30
Can you make me feel better about Luis Castillo? Maybe give me a historical comp that will reassure me that he will bounce back?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
Hmmm, he's doing a good job of limiting hard contact, and it's worth noting the gap between his ugly 5.61 ERA and his much more respectable 3.99 xERA. What's weird though is that not only are his defense-independent rates all going in the wrong direction relative to years past but his groundball rate is down as well. Might be somebody I take a closer look at soon.
The Stranger
2:34
Wander Franco called up at 20 and homered in his first game. Statistical lock for HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
As debuts go, that was very cool. While he's hardly a statistical lock, i've noted before that players who debut at age 20 (or younger) have the odds stacked in their favor when it comes to the Hall of Fame. A 20-year-old who gets 1 PA historically has an 8.7% chance of making it to Cooperstown, rising to 16.8% at 100 PA and 25.4% at 250 PA.
WinTwins0410
2:39
Jay, I clearly don’t understand WAR as well as I should. What explains Bill Buckner’s ridiculously low career WAR total of 15.1? (Per B-Ref) Just intuitively it seems like a guy with 2,715 hits, almost 500 doubles, seven seasons of above .300 and a very low strikeout rate would look good with advanced stats. I know that he didn’t walk a lot — so that negatively impacts his OPS — and I know his fielding was so-so at best (although his .9916 fielding percentage for a first baseman is ahead of the likes of Rod Carew, Lou Gehrig, Dick Allen and Willie Stargell). But still — a WAR of 15? For a 20-year major leaguer, that kind of total would seem hard to achieve! (Deron Johnson’s 6.2 is even worse). Thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
Despite the career .289 batting average and the seasons above .300, Buckner hit for just a 97 OPS+ in his career due to a meager .321 OBP and .408 SLG, which means he was below average — 38 runs below average for his career. He was adequate defensively (+12 runs for his career), below average on the bases and at avoiding double plays (-14), but what really crushes his value is that he was doing this primarily as a first baseman, and the offensive bar there is much higher. He was a combined 161 runs below average for his career when accounting for position.
Matt V
2:43
Javier Baez's K/BB ratio is 98/8. He's been so good at everything else so far that he's still providing valuable, but how sustainable is this?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
y-i-k-e-s
2:46
Baez is an above-average defender at a key position, which gives him a solid floor for value, but with that type of K/BB ratio, everything depends on his BABIP. At .310, he's nearly a league-average hitter, and roughly a 3.5-win player, prorated, but if it dips like it did last year (.256) he's replacement level.
Of the pending free agent shortstops, I think he presents the most risk.
WinTwins0410
2:47
Jay, also, I enjoyed reading your 2010 BP obituary of Willie Davis (https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/10288/one-hoppers-will...). With the benefit of another decade, I have to ask: has your view changed more positively on a Hall of Fame case for Willie Davis? What’s your thought?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
Thanks! Davis is 17th in JAWS, about 9 points below the standard. I can't really make a stronger argument in his favor thank I can for the 9th, 11th, 12th, and 16th guys — Beltran, Lofton, Andruw and Edmonds — who are about 2 to 8 points ahead of him, and all with significantly higher peaks.
Ben
2:49
If deGrom breaks the single-season ERA record this year, would that make him a Hall of Famer even if he never put up another All Star level season?
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