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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/27/23
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:00
Good afternoon, folks! I'm back from my annual foray to Cape Cod and at my usual battle station for the Tuesday chat.
2:01
I just published a piece on Jordan Walker's latest hitting streak and what's changed (and hasn't) since his return from Triple-A. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jordan-walker-tries-to-get-off-the-ground/
2:02
Yesterday, I took a look at the debut of the Padres' Matt Waldron, the first pitcher to throw a knuckleball in a major league game since Mickey Jannis in 2021 https://blogs.fangraphs.com/matt-waldron-brought-the-knuckleball-back-...
Current listening: Sparks, since I'm seeing them at the Beacon Theater tonight.
And now, on with the show
babbganoush
2:03
Thoughts on Manoah getting shelled by 17 yo kids?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:05
It's obviously not what you want, but it's important not to overreact here (and the average age of the Yankees he's facing is 19 not 17). There's a reason Manoah is retooling in the FCL rather than at Triple-A, and it's because the intermediate results really don't matter. It's a high-offense league (5.8 RPG), the caliber of defense is yikes (18% of all runs are unearned) and we have no batted ball info to go by at this juncture. As with pitching development, pitching fixes are non-linear; it could just be a matter of a tweak or two having radically different results.
Harry
2:06
Give me a concern level on Giancarlo Stanton? Historically a streaky guy so I tend to believe everyone should take a breather. Rumblings of a trade across town has to be the craziest thing I've seen.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:10
medium. He's not hitting well since his return (.121/.215/.241), striking out a ton (33.8%), not hitting the ball as hard, or being as aggressive as usual. I have to think something is mechanically wrong, perhaps in relation to a less-than-full recovery from his hamstring strain, and the added pressure of not having Aaron Judge in the lineup can't be helping.

I can't imagine anyone trading for him right now, but I don't think this is the end for him by any means
Dan in Toronto
2:10
Hi Jay, which 3 AL teams will make the playoffs as Wild Cards this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
If I had to guess, I'd probably go with the Astros, Orioles, and Angels, which would additionally be a nice change of pace given the recent absences of the last two of those teams
Sammy So-so
2:12
Do you know if the much shorter games this season have had an effect on viewership numbers and attendance? Are the games just more enjoyable to those of us who were watching anyway, or has the quicker pace of play begun to attract new fans? Thanks as always, Jay.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:16
I don't have anything on viewership. Attendance is up by about 9% compared to this time last year but only about 4.5% compared to all of last season. I'm not sure we can attribute that to shorter game times; I don't think people buying pre-season could have anticipated the effect would be this great. More to the point, I think the benefits in terms of both TV and in-person attendance are likely to take longer to unfold.
Eric
2:17
If the Dodgers pitching struggles continue, what's the best team in the NL West?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:21
I think it's a real toss-up. Looking at BaseRuns winning percentage based on underlying offensive and defensive components, the Giants (.561), Dodgers (.555), Padres (also .555) and Dbacks (.538) are closely bunched together, with the Dodgers having played the hardest schedule and having the easiest remaining one. I'd say it's a coin toss between the Giants and Dbacks if not the Dodgers
Mt Elden
2:22
Vlad Jr is currently 17th in WAR among qualified 1B and late last week was like 13th in wRC+. Was that 2021 season where he posted superstar numbers an aberration and is he more likely to just be a good player going forward?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:24
I think he's been kinda banged up (knee, wrist) and also that he's been a bit unlucky relative to his batted ball numbers. Check his .311 xBA and .547 xSLG. I still expect him to be top tier at some point
OCody Bellinger
2:25
What type of deal do you think I'm looking at in the offseason?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:26
Maybe 3/$60M? The bat is back to league-average (though ahead of his x-stats) and the defense in center can certainly carry that. i don't see a huge deal in his future
Henry
2:26
Now that we've seen Acuña return to pre-injury production levels, what's your confidence level in him winding up in Cooperstown?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
Certainly higher than in April. Was thinking I'd write a follow-up to my pessimistic piece on him earlier this year. Will have a more heavily HOF-related thing as Induction Weekend nears.
FannyGraphy
2:28
Hello, is there any way to look up stats for a Starting Rotation only? Not an entire pitching staff? Like if you wanted to see what team had the best rotation season ever?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
you can get team starting pitcher splits by choosing "Starters" on the fourth nav bar of the stat interface:
Guest
2:32
Thoughts on ROS outlook for Freddy Peralta and Cristian Javier? I'm in a 12 team league with QS. Looking at Mackenzie Gore, Lance Lynn, and Alex Cobb as potential pickups on the wire.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
Not fantasy-specific to your league but if you're asking me which of those pitchers I like most ROS it's Javier (over Peralta, whose health history isn't great) and Cobb
ADHD+
2:35
I see a lot of talk about launch angles when it comes to Jordan Walker. I'm still getting familiar with launch angles/batted ball statistics, so in your opinion what would be an ideal launch angle for Walker based on his hitting profile?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:37
The game's real thumpers generally have average launch angels in the 15-20 degree range. There are exceptions like Juan Soto and the healthy version of Stanton, though. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/custom?year=2023,2022,2021,...
Matt
2:38
Do you think the phillies will make the playoffs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
I'm not especially bullish on their chances but I wouldn't be shocked.
Byron Denniston
2:38
How was Cape Cod? Catch any CCBL action?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:39
The two weeks passed too quickly, and I was bedeviled by back spasms to one degree or another until the last few days — that meant less beach walking (no dunes hike in the first year my daughter was old enough to try this) and a couple of beach days skipped.
2:41
We did see one CCBL game, Yarmouth-Dennis at Orleans, and it was fun to be back in that environment, but my daughter was especially attention-hungry so it was a little hard to focus on the game even as we stayed until the 8th inning. My daughter went home happy as she won a plushie firebird in the raffle
Byron Denniston
2:41
Why don’t the Cardinals just trade Goldschmidt and move Walker to 1B?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
Well, he has full no-trade protection for one thing, and they really like having him around. Plus it's not automatic that a bad outfielder can become even an adequate first baseman (see Adam Dunn).
Byron Denniston
2:43
Wth is going on with Moniak?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:44
The guy is on an insane BABIP heater. .431 BABIP combined with a 3% walk rate and 30.7% strikeout rate. Fun while it lasts but I wouldn't count on it to last forever
Nick
2:44
What do you think is  the most predicting stat for a Pitcher in Single A to be successful in the MLB?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:44
probably either K% or K-BB%
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