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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/3/22
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AvatarJay Jaffe
3:29
he's in a 4-for-31 slide, which doesn't seem to me like a big deal, but it's coincided the Angels generally not scoring and losing, so it probably looks worse. Unless there's an underlying injury I wouldn't worry about his current rough patch, but man do I hold my breath every time he gets hit by a pitch
cm
3:31
I am not in a panic re: Rutschman's hitting, but just watching it he seems like a .250, 20 hr, .350 OBP guy.  That's great for a catcher but not some offensive monster.  Your thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:34
His near-term ZiPS projections are in the .260/.350/.455 range, with 20 homers, and projection systems are pretty conservative in general, so I think you can expect a bit more — but even that's a 4+ WAR player, which at catcher goes a long way. There were 4 who reached 4 WAR last year, but just 2 in 2018 and '19 (Realmuto and Grandal both times). That's exceedingly rare, and therefore quite valuable.
adambulldog
3:34
C. Beltran is proving to be a pretty good TV analyst. Agree or disagree? Also, your current opinion on his HoF chances?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:35
I haven't entirely warmed up to him in the booth yet but he's at least off to a solid start. I do think the higher visibility will help his cause, and I'm hopeful he gets another chance to manage, because he's got a lot more to give the game.
Mr. Burrito
3:37
I love Chris Taylor. He's fun to watch and root for. But he swings and misses at an outrageous number of balls in the strike zone, and I'm always amazed that his numbers are as good as they are. This year feels like a borderline tipping point for him... Got any thoughts about how his all-or-nothing batting style might age? I'm concerned because I also love the Dodgers and Taylor is in year one of a four-year deal.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:38
I'm a huge Taylor fan, and yes, his strikeout rate is too high right now and his Z-Contact too low, but he's still producing at a high level and I'm not tremendously worried. I don't think the Dodgers are, either; after all, he struck out a near-high 28.7% last year and still got paid.
3:39
to clarify: i'm not tremendously worried that he's going to continue having these kinds of contact problems for a longer period.
3:40
OK folks, I have to roll. We're taking the kiddo to Aaron Judge Bobblehead Night at Yankee Stadium and need to get there early, so I've got a full list of things to do before then. I won't be chatting next week but we'll do it the week after from lovely Wellfleet. Until then, take care!
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