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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 6/3/25
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my Tuesday afternoon chat. Please bear with me a moment while I get my lunch order squared away...
12:03
OK that's done — fried chicken sandwich on the way...
12:04
Yesterday I took a look at the Alexis Díaz trade (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dodgers-hope-to-fix-alexis-diaz-and-bolste...), the latest in a long line of fix-it attempts by the Dodgers, who now have an astounding 15 pitchers on the injured list.
12:06
Speaking of which, last night's Mets-Dodgers game was a thriller that kept me up way too late. A Lindor leadoff homer! An Ohtani answer homer with a great call by Gary Cohen, and a game-tying sac fly in the 9th! And yet another Tanner Scott meltdown that decided the game.
I've got a piece on the Astros' recent surge and slew of injuries that should go up shortly. And now, on with the show
drplantwrench
12:06
i've had this debate with some baseball friends - which is the better stat: Quality Starts or Win-Loss?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:08
I'll take quality starts, which imply the run prevention context. I know people get hung up on the 4.50 ERA by a 6-inning, 3-run start but as I showed more than a decade ago, those are comparatively small % of starts, and when pitchers record a QS their collective ERA is generally below 2.00
Boo-urns for Corbin
12:08
Really really really really really hoping that Corbin Burnes isn't out for the year.

But on that note - its somewhat frustrating, too, to think that Burnes is one of the best pitchers of the past half-decade by most standards or statistics...and it still feels like he's a long shot for the Hall of Fame, whether or not he's out for another year. This more speaks to the frustration for SPs re: HoF, but it's mind boggling to think that there are plenty of modern hitters who will fit the bill, but there are entire generations where the top pitchers are just not at that bar.

I guess that question is - what would have to happen for a top pitcher like Burnes - again, broadly considered to be one of the best of his generation/era/etc. - to be considered Hall worthy?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:09
Believe me, I get your frustration, not only with regards to Burnes (hoping for the best and expecting the worst after seeing that clip, but at least he wasn't doubled over in agony) but to the dearth of next-gen Hall of Fame starting pitcher candidates.
12:13
It's something I've thought about a lot, with no clear resolution other than the idea that voters are going to have to come around to the idea that pitchers with fewer than 200 wins can be Hallworthy. Burnes, who's now in his age-30 season, has just 63 wins and 19.2 bWAR. his 3.19 ERA is impressive (131 ERA+), but even while throwing 190+ innings at that level for the past three seasons, he's only averaged 3.8 WAR, and has just one season of 4.0 or better (5.3 in 2021, when he led the NL in ERA and won a CY).
12:14
I think he's still gonna need a bunch of 5-WAR seasons to look like a realistic candidate. he'll benefit by having the likes of deGrom and Cole ahead of him in line for Hall consideration; maybe by the time he's eligible, voters' views on what makes a Hall starter will have shifted. But he needs health and excellence going forward, and that's an increasingly tough combo to find.
Lord Thunder
12:15
Have the constant string of injuries already effectively ruined Luis Robert Jr.'s career?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
the injuries certainly haven't helped, but moving to a modern organization with people who can help him try regain what's been lost is an absolute necessity
Ceddanne Rafaela
12:19
I’ve seen a lot of Sox fans wondering if Rafaela could be traded. Does he have positive trade value, or would they have to eat some of that contract given his offensive struggles?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:21
his defense is so good that he has considerable near-term value as a 3-win player even if his bat doesn't come around (he has 10 DRS and 9 FRV in center in just 57 games). I think he'd be an interesting flyer for a team that has enough offense at the outfield corners to make up for it but I wouldn't expect a stellar return to the Red Sox.
Eddie
12:23
Is Ryan Yarborough Nestor (lite perhaps) 2.0?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:25
Probably too early to say but he's reworked his repertoire and is missing bats like never before. it's an interesting development worth keeping an eye on.
12:26
Lunch has arrived. Spicy fried chicken sandwich from Marcus Samuelson's Streetbird, much better than at Yankee Stadium, where edible food goes to die
Rick
12:29
Royce Lewis 0 for his last 30, sitting half the time, and talk of him being sent down. IF he stays healthy, what kind of long-term value does he have?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
Good lord, that's grim. At the moment, he doesn't have a lot of value but we've seen him enough to know that he's quite streaky. Hopefully the Twins can sort him out — his struggles date back to late last year.
Austin
12:32
If I asked you who the most valuable hitter on the "best" team in baseball would be through this point in the season, how many guesses would it have taken for you to guess Dillon Dingler?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:34
if you defined it as "most valuable position player" I might have a shot if i were staring at a roster, but FWIW he's only 5th in wRC+ among the regulars so "hitter" obscures the question.
Oaktown Blues
12:35
Do you think Mark Kotsay's managerial job is in Jeopardy given This nightmarish stretch for the A's?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
Color me skeptical. The A's have put Kotsay through a lot with this relocation and the ******* ballpark situation and unless he's really lost the clubhouse I have to think he'll survive the season.
Scott's Tots
12:36
Tanner Scott going to turn it around?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
Before the ice caps melt? Yeah, probably. In time to help the Dodgers this week? Probably not
12:40
His skid has been 6 innings across seven outings with 12 runs allowed. not sure if he's gutting out some kind of injury while trying to remain available or if his mechanics are just off a bit; the velo is the same and the pitch modeling metrics don't show an appreciable change.
Oaktown Blues
12:42
Jacob Wilson, 150 wRC+ guy? xWOBA is skeptical. What say you?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
Not a 150 wRC+ guy but FWIW his ROS projections are about 135, which puts his overall mark around 140. Wild, but it's working very well right now.
Guest
12:43
If a one-team player gets traded, and  after the contract ends, he either retires or re-signs with his old team, would you still consider him to be a one-team player?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
no, because he played for two teams, right?
Sanford
12:43
Seems like the site does often not update player pages after someone has passed away (i.e. still counting the ages of Rickey Henderson, Octavio Dotel, even Gary Carter, to name a few that I checked). Is this known/being worked on?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:44
From what I understand, it's a data supplier issue; we don't manually update those. I'll pass along a note though.
Noah
12:47
Do you think Barger's hot start is real, and how up or down are you on Santander/Gimenez?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
Barger is crushing the ball, and it's interesting to note that he just got his first two starts at third base against lefties this year. I don't know what's going on with Santander but Gimenez's offense has significantly waned since that huge 2022 season — though his current xwOBA is only a few points off of it. Might be worth a closer look.
Sodo mojo
12:52
Assuming  they are both available which 1b rental would you rather have at the deadline O’hearns or Naylor
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
For a short-term rental I probably prefer O'Hearn because he finds the barrel more often, but it's a toss-up between those two, at least for me.
SophiaK
12:53
How do we make sense of the Mets ability to take a pile of seemingly middling pitchers and remake them on the fly to collectively be one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. Luck, or a secret sauce? And assuming the latter, are pitchers lining up to sign with the Mets going forward?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
I definitely think there's something to what they're doing — they've already become a destination for free agent pitchers of a certain ilk, not unlike the Dodgers.
Ed
12:54
Is Ben Rice going to Atlanta for a certain game this july?
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