JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/4/24

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Jay Jaffe

2:58

Scoring is actually higher than it was in 2022, before we got a whole bunch of new rules designed to goose the offense, and we haven't even hit the summer yet, when the ball tends to carry more and scoring levels rise. MLB does have future rule changes in mind, ABS being the big one, but after a one-two helping of rule changes, I don't see the league and the union reacting to every single dip by rewriting the rule book.

3:00

Even if Vladdy isn't great at 3B, is this finally a recognition from the Blue Jays that we need to sacrifice some defense for offense if we want to, um, win a game?

Jay Jaffe

3:02

It sounds like it's going to be a once-in-awhile thing, and while I don't hate it, I think the incremental gains are pretty dang small on a team that needs like five guys to start hitting like they have in the past

Kyle

3:03

Does Jasson force his way into the BX?

Jay Jaffe

3:05

Probably not until late in the season unless there's an injury. The Yankees are playing so well they're in if-it-ain't-broke territory, and Dominguez still has just nine games at Triple-A. Give it time.

Mark S

3:05

Would 500 HRs get Stanton to Cooperstown? Or has that benchmark been forever tainted by the Steroid era.

Jay Jaffe

3:05

I think if Stanton got to 500, he'd probably get into the Hall, but it's not going to be automatic.

Zach

3:06

Anthony Rizzo has a 58 wRC+ in his last 30 games and a 72 wRC+ since his collision with Tatis last year. Are the Yankees ride-or-die with Rizzo or would they consider a move at 1B?

Jay Jaffe

3:07

lots of yankees questions in the chat so this is the last one for awhile — I think they'd get DJ LeMahieu some reps at first base before they consider going outside the organization.

HoganLegDrop

3:07

Is there any reason to think Severino (if he keeps current pace) gets any more than what Lorezen did last year?

Jay Jaffe

3:10

Absolutely. He has a much longer and stronger track record, particularly as a starter. Lorenzen made his first All-Star team last year but finished with a 4.18 ERA and 4.46 FIP, both of which were worse than his career averages; he has a 4.23 ERA and 4.59 FIP as a starter for his career. Severino is coming off a bad year but has generally been much more successful.

HoganLegDrop

3:10

How should we feel about Yamamoto and that contract given what we've seen so far? Do we think that there is another gear he could kick into but is an above-average but not dominate pitcher looking more likely?

Jay Jaffe

3:11

YOU MUST JUMP TO CONCLUSIONS ABOUT A 12-YEAR CONTRACT NOW!

3:12

Yamamoto has been inconsistent but sheesh, the guy is carrying a 3.32 ERA and 2.69 FIP while adjusting to a new country, a new culture, and a new baseball. I'm not sure how much better you expect him to be. I think this is a pretty good start to what I expect will be a long and productive career.

Nathaniel Lowe

3:13

What’s going on with him? I see a a drop in LA and a big drop in ISO and Barrels/Rate. I traded for him when Casas went down and have appeared to acquire a rock.

Jay Jaffe

3:14

Wow, a 2% barrel rate? a .338 SLG? I think your guy was kidnapped by aliens and replaced by James Loney.

3:15

More likely to turn their career around after severe early career struggles Baty or Torkelson?

Jay Jaffe

3:17

Torkelson, I think. He did have a bit of a breakout in the second half last season (.238/.318/.498 , 121 wRC+), so he's shown he can be an above-average major league hitter, whereas we're still waiting for that from Baty, whose ceiling was never judged to be quite as high.

T(win)s

3:17

No question, just happy Royce Lewis is back! Being a fan of MN sports we're preconditioned to default to "That's why we can't have nice things"

Jay Jaffe

3:18

I'm glad Lewis is back, and I'm almost completely indifferent to the Twins!

MikeD

3:18

Do you believe MLB has "deadened" the ball this year, or are there other issues at play. If the former, why would they do that?

Jay Jaffe

3:20

I don't think they've done anything to the ball with intent, but as we've seen, changes in sourcing of materials can have a larger-than-expected effect from batch to batch and year to year. As the game's preeminent physicist, Alan Nathan, told me in 2011, "The specs on major league baseballs, they almost don't deserve to be called specs, they're so loose that the range of performance from the top end to the bottom end is so different."

Jason N

3:20

Hey Jay - looks like the FanGraphs servers are compromised (again). I keep getting my screen taken over by scam ads - even during your chat. May want to alert the site admins.

Jay Jaffe

3:20

First I've heard of it, but I'll pass this along to the authorities. Are you logged in?

Phil

3:22

Are Bello, Houck, Casas, Devers, Abreu, and Rafaela the core of a future contending team? Or are we waiting for Mayer, Teel, and company, in which case I presume some of the above will be traded or let go in free agency following a few more years of the current endless middlingship? Asking for a few million friends across five and a half states, thanks.

Jay Jaffe

3:23

I'm not at all convinced w/r/t Rafaella but this is a pretty decent team, with a better-than-expected rotation and some welcome breakthroughs in the outfield. I wouldn't give up hope.

Theeeehauahsuehaueheueheushh Yankees win

3:27

I was poking through the EVs of some of my favorite players and I noticed Freddie Freeman's average EV is down a bit and so are most of his hard contact numbers. This isn't to say that he's having a bad year obviously, he's still probably a top 20 or 25 player right now based just on the season, but it got me thinking about declines. Could something like this be the sign of an oncoming decline for someone like Freeman? If so does it portend steep ugly decline or a more graceful one? And, say it does lead to a steep sudden decline, is that enough to keep someone like Freeman out of the Hall of Fame? He's got a fairly strong but probably not complete resume in that regard, so I'm wondering if he's in danger of falling out of consideration with a hard drop off

Jay Jaffe

3:31

At 34 years old, Freeman NOT declining somewhat is more of a surprise than if he were declining, but the guy is still carrying a 150 wRC+ so I don't think it's really time to panic; he hasn't woken up with Chris Davis' swing or <checks notes> Nathaniel Lowe's. He's checked a lot of boxes for the Hall of Fame, and while I don't think he's a lock yet, I expect he'll get in with a normal career progression.

Ben

3:31

What do you make of Snell and Montgomery’s awful starts to the year? Both arrived very late to spring training and didn’t even know where they’d be playing until mid-March at earliest. Obviously there are a lot of factors at play, but hard not to think that this interfered with their prep for the season.

Jay Jaffe

3:36

Woof, was typing an answer and my whole computer just crashed… hang tight

3:39

I think it's entirely possible that the late signing contributed to their rocky starts; after all, part of coming to a new team is building relationships with coaches and teammates, none more important for a pitcher than his catchers. That said, it's also on players to keep themselves in shape, and I wonder how much of their difficulties are because they weren't quite ready enough when they began game activity.

3:40

And yes, I get the temptation to Blame Boras, and he probably misjudged their markets to a degree — but he takes his orders from his clients, and so they bear culpability as well.

Sanford

3:40

Is there a reason why FanGraphs does not have HR% (allowed) as an available pitching stat? Perhaps I'm missing it, but I never am able to find it on leaderboards or player pages. K/9 and BB/9 are accompanied by K% and BB% (which are definitively more useful), but I'm surprised we're still left with only HR/9...something you could pass up the chain?

Jay Jaffe

3:40

Agreed, it would be nice to have. Will mention it.

grader135

3:41

Will tommy pham end up back in Arizona?

Jay Jaffe

3:41

Man, I have no idea where Tommy Pham will send up but that guy needs as much therapy as his salary can afford.

3:42

Ok folks, a lot of good questions still in the queue but I have to call it a day to go pick up my kiddo. Thanks for stopping by and have a great week

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