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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/6/23
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AvatarJay Jaffe
3:28
I didn't bring it up in writing yesterday's piece because the last Tatis HOF thing I did didn't age too well (that's where the HOF by age table comes from ) https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fernando-tatis-jr-has-a-clear-shot-at-coop...
v2micca
3:29
Given Soroka's demotion to AAA, are the Braves possibly going to give Smith-Shawver a shot at the rotation?
AvatarJay Jaffe
Babipski
3:30
Something I've been thinking about recently, and wanted to see if you know of anyone who has seriously pondered it: is there a quantifiable change in league-wide babip that happened as many teams moved away from the incredibly bouncy turf of the concrete donut stadiums in the 90's?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:32
yes. it rose pretty quickly. .281 in 1992, .294 in 1995, after expansion into Miami and Colorado and the start of the big building boom
Guest
3:34
Masa Yoshida is currently slashing .312/.389/.495. Has any rookie ever slashed .300/.400/.500 before? Mike Trout was at a .399 OBP in 2012
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:36
Yordan Alvarez hit .313/.412/.655 in 369 PA in 2019. Pujols, Fred Lynn, Ted Williams, Paul Waner among the others

https://stathead.com/tiny/pFA1V
A Boy Named Yu
3:37
Is Mervis going to start mashing anytime soon?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:38
i love the nickname but the scouting grades always suggested he was more of a project than a true prospect. His xSLG and xBA are better than his actual numbers but he's going to have to make bigger advances
Jason
3:38
Is there a stats like Wins Above Average Player? Only asking because wRC+, OPS+, ERA-/+ all adjust to league average, yet the most common valuation of a player is WAR. Would it not make sense to have that stat? Is an average player at 1 WAR? So we can just adjust the scale of WAR to get that value?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:40
First off, 2 WAR is about average for a full season of playing time.

B-Ref tracks WAA on its player pages. WAA is useful but it doesn't convey volume, and volume matters. if a guy is 1 WAA, we don't know whether that's in 100 PA or 600. If he's 3 WAR we at least know he got a subtantial amount of playing time to build to that number
3:44
Volume especially matters when it comes to Hall stuff since there are thresholds below which players don't get considered. Ichiro and Bryce Harper have roughly the same WAA (0.1 difference) but one has over 3,000 hits (automatic) and the other 1,412 (not enough to get elected).
Ben
3:45
Do you have a general rule/thought on when to let a young player struggle v sending him down to work it out not in the spotlight?  Is it about the team's goal (meaning how the team is doing) v. something else?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:47
We can look at indicators of controlling the strike zone and actual vs expected outcomes but honestly I think there are a lot of soft factors that can and should go into the decision. Is this guy spiraling when he's got bad results? Is he having competitive at-bats? is there something going on injury or mechanic-wise that we're not aware of? There's a lot only a team can answer, which again is why i don't think the Yankees are inclined to send Volpe down, because they rave about the kid's makeup and adjustments and poise, et.c
Jason
3:47
As someone who hasn't been to Cooperstown since 2013, have there been noticeable changes in the past decade that warrant a new visit?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:50
Yes. Very, very much yes. The "A Whole New Ballgame" exhibit," which was installed in 2015, is vibrant and brought the museum in to the 21st century, and more recently, I LOVE the baseball card exhibit. They've expanded the women in baseball exhibit, and more. Get thee to Cooperstown if you can!
Chichikov
3:51
Theoretically  small HOF would have __ players born per decade and a big HOF would have __ players born per decade.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:52
I think of it more in terms of HOFers per team-season, with 1.0 too low and 2.0 maybe a bit high but reflective of actual membership in some eras.
Jason N
3:53
Great Tatis article.  In your opinion, which of these are the primary drivers for his uneven performance 1) Rust. 2) No more roids. 3) Shoulder surgery. 4) Normal year-to-year performance variance?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:54
I think the big thing is the shoulder and the rust. He never tested positive while putting up major league numbers so I don't think it's right to attribute his fall-off to that when more obvious explanations exist.
Duff's or Anchor Bar?
3:54
Manoah optioned to Buffalo!
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:55
They're reading my chat!
Ok folks, thanks for all of the great q today, those two hours went quickly. Next time I rap at ya it will be from the field office in Wellfleet, Massachusetts!
Guest
3:55
If Elvis Andrus hypothetically played another ten seasons to age 44, averaged 100 hits per season and got to 3,000 hits, would he be a Hall of Famer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:56
Hall of Nick Markakis.
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