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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/7/18

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Jay Jaffe

12:56

I've only been to one Cape Cod League game, and that was, I think, Brewster. I believe Orleans is in the plans this year as we're up there longer and will have more flexibility.

Parts + Gleyber

12:57

Is Hanley secretly injured? I know there's not a robust market for players in his situation, but for league minimum I didn't think he'd be out of a job this long.

Jay Jaffe

12:59

The guy has zero defensive value and a vesting option. At the very least, he probably won't be signed until it's clear that he won't reach the option even with regular playing time for the rest of the year, because nobody wants to deal with the headaches such a controversy would entail.

The other part of the issue is that the teams with the worst DH production are ones that aren't contenders anyway, at least not anymore. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&...

Aaron

1:00

Is Miguel Sano going to eat his way out of ever signing a deal longer than 1 year?

Jay Jaffe

1:01

Right now it looks like he's not-hitting his way out of an extension (84 wRC+) though it's fair to wonder how much that shin injury has affected him.

Bob Tufts

1:01

Player revenue share has fallen since 2004. Part of next CBA or did they miss the boat on MLBAM /streaming success?

Jay Jaffe

1:05

If this is the real Bob Tufts, I'm sure you know more about the issue than I do given your career.

Based on the publicly available numbers such as there (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-mlbpa-has-a-problem/), it appears that the player revenue share has indeed been falling, but that particular method of determining the revenue share has been disputed for awhile by the MLBPA brass. I do think MLBAM will be an issue in the next CBA, but it's just one of many

John

1:06

Why are the Jays hurting my heart with Vlad?

Jay Jaffe

1:06

Because we probably aren't past the Super Two date yet

Tom

1:08

I was under the impression Hanley's vesting option no longer existed once he was released?

Jay Jaffe

1:09

It appears you could be right, according to this Evan Drellich tweet

This is important: if the Red Sox wind up releasing Hanley Ramirez, his Red Sox contract — and the vesting option f… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

. If that's the case, my bad.

1:09

over or under Gregory Polanco hits 20 HR This year

Jay Jaffe

1:10

He's got eight but man, he's fallen far since I looked at him in mid-April... when he had 5. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-pirates-have-some-hope/ I'll still take the over but he's got to get it together.

Dansby Samsonite

1:10

Do you have thoughts on Alderson's recent interview? He seemed to explicitly say it's ok to be just ok.

Jay Jaffe

1:13

I like Alderson a lot but I think that reflects the views of his employer as much as anything. Let's not forget that the Wilpons operate the Mets as though they're on the edge of poverty. Can you see them volunteering to withstand a couple 100-loss seasons at the gate?

1:13

Is Bryce pressing too much because he's seeing less strikes? What should his approach be, just take more walks?

Jay Jaffe

1:14

I think Harper's big problem is that he's pulling the ball with increasing frequency, and thus being shifted against more, and it's working. Wrote about it the other day. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/bryce-harpers-shifting-approach/

Pad Squad

1:15

What's the better Padres outfield: 2019's Myers, Margot, Renfroe/Cordero OR 2023's Tirso Ornelas, Buddy Reed, Jeisson Rosario?

Jay Jaffe

1:16

is this Riley Breckenridge or David Roth? I have literally never heard of the latter guys and can only presume you're making them up.

More to the point, I'm not a prospect expert. Sorry.

Stevil

1:16

Would it make some sense for the Mariners to have Cano start preparing to take 1B once his hand is healed? He would have plenty of time to get prepared before his suspension is lifted.

Jay Jaffe

1:19

It might make sense but in-season position switches are tough to pull off under the best of circumstances, and these are not the best of circumstances Among other things, Cano wants to surpass Jeff Kent's career HR record for a second baseman (351) — or so I've read.

1:19

What does Buster Posey need to do to become a HOFer?

Jay Jaffe

1:20

Surpass 2,000 hits (he's only at 1,219). He's got the hardware and the peak WAR

Scott

1:20

The death of Red Schoendienst raised an interesting question: how do you count individuals who straddled the line, especially as a player and a manager? The division seems much stronger now, but it wasn’t always the case. Frank Chance is below JAWS average as a player, but his Cubs average 100 wins over his managerial tenure, Jimmy Collins is not the best third basemen in the Hall, but managed the first World Series champs.

Jay Jaffe

1:23

Credit for managing is a black box when it comes to Hall voting. Chance and Red and Collins are all in the Hall as players despite their managerial contributions, but Joe Torre, who had a better playing career than just about any of them according to WAR and JAWS, is in as a manager. The effort to elect Gil Hodges depends on applying a massive amount of credit for the Mets' 1969 championship, but obviously that's fallen short.

In short, Cooperstown is a land of contrasts.

Abreu

1:25

That 1B comparison up there has me feeling a little unappreciated over here

Jay Jaffe

1:25

it's all about your lack of defensive value, my dude. You've got 2 seasons of 4+ WAr under your belt out of 5 (if we're prorating this one), and that doesn't cut it for the upper tier.

julioooo

1:26

When do the Dodgers jettison Forsythe? He has been putrid.

Jay Jaffe

1:27

Sometime in July, All-Star break if not the deadline.

Dave

1:27

Is Felix Hernandez a HOFer? Or will he be a one and done like Cone and Saberhagen?

Jay Jaffe

1:28

This year's 5.33 ERA ain't helping his cause https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/will-king-felix-reach-cooperstown/

True and Correct

1:28

Trade Andujar ? haha. Seriously, have you watched him this year ? Andujar and Torres better be untouchable, which I believe they are

Jay Jaffe

1:31

My dude, I watch most Yankees games. And I am impressed by Andujar's bat, but also concerned by his glove, and the small-sample metrics are brutal. I'm not saying the Yankees are definitely going to trade him, or that they have to, but he's not the untouchable commodity that Torres is. Trading him is one of many options given the multitude of bodies they have in their infield picture and their needs if they're to convert this roster into a championship in the near term.

James

1:31

Who will be the first pitcher in the HOF without the traditional counting benchmarks? A lot of today's aces won't even make 150 wins

Jay Jaffe

1:33

and a lot of today's aces won't make it to Cooperstown. Verlander, Kershaw, Greinke and Scherzer are the guys with the best shots, maybe CC, and all of them have cleared 150 except for Clayton.

OK folks, some unexpected child care duty has reared its head so I'm going to have to bow out now. Thanks for stopping by! I'll yak atcha next week from Wellfleet.

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