JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/9/20

Prev Page View Full Chat

Defenestrater

2:46

Would it be tenable to have the first regular season game be July 4th

Jay Jaffe

2:47

At this point probably not. a three-week spring training would need to start on June 13, and even if an agreement were struck today, that's not enough time to mobilize players and have teams prepare their respective training sites to comply with whatever health protocols would be necessary (which haven't even been finalized — yet another problem).

Skip

2:47

With the current state of everything, could you suggest a good book about the Negro Leagues?

Jay Jaffe

2:50

One book that's been in my rapidly growing reading pile — alas, a pastime that's fallen by the wayside since child care began competing with sleep and work as the most time-consuming pillars of my day — is Jeremy Beer's recent bio of Oscar Charleston. I can't vouch for that one except for word of mouth.

From way back, I really enjoyed the hell out of Larry Tye's Satchel Paige bio.

Pumpsie Green

2:52

Are you at all comfortable commenting on the perception that the mostly-White ownership group is perceived by some to be bullying a diverse union membership headed by a Black man?

Jay Jaffe

2:56

I think mostly-white is an understatement when it comes to MLB ownership. Derek Jeter owns 4% of the Marlins, Magic Johnson owns like 2.3% of the Dodgers, and I can't think of another prominent minority in ownership, but it's no mystery how this group might be out of touch with its employees and the issues that concern them, regardless of whom is heading the union.

Your Name

2:56

Thoughts on the protests, brutality, black lives? Or read anything enlightening in regards to them? As always, hope you and yours are doing well!

Jay Jaffe

3:00

I'm heartened to see that a majority of people are in support of the protests and that the message of Black Lives Matter is getting through. I'm hopeful that this burst of momentum can survive the challenges created by the still-raging pandemic and effect real change, not only with regards to police brutality but in addressing so many disparities that permeate life in this country. And I'm hopeful that I can soon carve out some time to do more reading on the various hot topics at hand.

Defenestrater

3:00

I accidentally hit submit too early and you may have missed my full comment. I am suggesting having one game on July 4th for each team but waiting another week or so for the rest of the regular season

Jay Jaffe

3:02

Hmmm, interesting idea but I fear that even that ship is about to sail because of how many obstacles there are to an agreement right now, both economic and health/safety-wise

3:07

Getting back to the protests-etc. question, I was struck by this thread from my friend Trent Rosecrans, who writes for The Athletic

This is something I’ve noticed, thought about and been bothered about — but haven’t DONE enough about. I have such privilege to have the place and voice I have. Please, please, please. If you are an aspiring baseball writer who is black, brown, Asian, LGBTQ or female, I am here

Another issue is MLB doesn't have nearly enough Black, Brown, Asian, LGBTQ, and women journalists. In fact, some Black beat writers have left the sport altogether. How many coded Gary Sanchez assassination pieces do we need? Klapisch wrote a BOOK detailing his disdain for Gary.

It's no secret that our little corner of the baseball-writing world is overly white and male and privileged, and I am certainly all three of those. I'd love to help aspiring writers from outside that Venn diagram — African American, Latinx, Asian, LGBTQ, female — find their way into this field (if they're not terrified by the grim economic realities of the journalism industry, etc.), so I'm here for anybody who fits that. You know where to find me, and I probably need to do a better job of finding you, too.

David

3:08

If universal DH is used in 2020 do you think it will stick around for good?

Jay Jaffe

3:09

Yes, I think this has been building for awhile and if it's implemented, it will probably stay that way.

Sanford

3:09

To avoid legitimacy concerns of labeling this year's championship (if any) as a World Series, have you heard any rumblings or are you in favor of a re-hashed "playoff cup" of sorts (it could literally be named...anything else?) that has a new format, and could be held ever few years or so in addition to the yearly World Series hereafter? Could be a fun new wrinkle--owners will definitely be on board with additional $$$, and players too so long as they see proportional bonuses. Maybe it could transition to be post-season for non-playoff teams?

Jay Jaffe

3:10

No. The World Series as a brand is something that MLB is banking upon — note that a very high % of this year's expected revenue is based on postseason dollars. Networks aren't paying for the Major League Baseball's Ad Hoc Championship Tournament, they're paying for the World Series.

MJA7

3:10

Mr. Jaffe, what are the rules for players on the HoF ballot if they decided to go back and play professional baseball again (MLB or otherwise). Would they be removed from the ballot and have to wait 5 years again? Stay on?

Jay Jaffe

3:14

Mr. Jaffe is only what they call me when they're trying to shoo me off the premises. "Mr. Jaffe, please, you're making a scene!"

but anyway, I digress. i had to give myself a refresher course in this recently but the player to look at is Jose Rijo. After he left MLB in 1995, he appeared on the 2001 BBWAA ballot and got one measly, stinkin' vote, which would have knocked him off the 2002 ballot. Remarkably, he came back to pitch in 2001-02, throwing a total of 94 innings, and was then included on the 2008 ballot, meaning that his eligibility was reset. Alas, he was shut out, and then bumped from the next ballot.

I wrote a bit about this in relation to Rick Ankiel's 2019 appearance on the ballot and his hopes for a comeback, which alas have yet to materialize https://blogs.fangraphs.com/slights-returns-and-hall-of-fame-ballots/

Trent Hauser

3:15

Chances Strasburg builds a serious HOF case under this contract ala Scherzer?

Jay Jaffe

3:20

That's a good question. Looking at both pitchers in the light of bWAR, since I've got JAWS on my mind for a question such as this, Scherzer — who joined the Nats for his age-30 season — already had two seasons of at least 5.0 WAR by the time he came to Washington, and has since added five more, ranging from 5.7 WAR to 8.4. His peak WAR of 48.4 is a bit short of the Hall standard (50.0), but in light of his other accomplishments (3 Cys, and future 200 W/3000 K milestones) wouldn't be an impediment for election.

Strasburg, about to enter his age-31 season, has a higher WAR than Scherzer did at this point (32.3 to 30.8) but aside from two seasons of at least 6.0 WAR has no other ones higher than 3.4. In other words, he's going to need to pitch like Max for about five years to really put himself on a Hall track.

Jae Jaffy

3:20

What's to stop from the players from purposefully but subtlely tanking the valuations of the teams? (i.e. if Max Scherzer decides that he wants to step off the mound 25 times between each pitch, or if Mike Trout wants to walk fly balls back to the pitcher)

Jay Jaffe

3:20

Pride and professionalism. Nobody wants to look horseshit out there.

MJA7

3:22

That is interesting, in that example of Rijo had gotten enough votes to stay on during the season he competed, would he have remained on the ballot despite being an active player?

Jay Jaffe

3:22

no, i believe his eligibility would have been suspended just the same.

Harmon Ripkowski

3:23

Best base stealer ever, not taking into account ability to get on base? I always believed if Vince Coleman got on base like Henderson, Cobb, Raines, Brock, he'd hold the all time record...

Jay Jaffe

3:25

Well, in terms of SB success rates, Carlos Beltran (86.4%) and Raines (84.7%) are first and second among players with at least 300 attempts, where Coleman (80.9%) is 18th. Raines (954 SBA) ran a lot more than Beltran (366 PA) so I'd call him the best in that regard.

Mr. Burrito

3:25

The stories about the late-round picks were excellent. Thanks. Dumb question: Do you think you'd be able to write a similar piece in ten years, if you limited the years to, say, post-2010? In other words, are teams getting significantly better at identifying talent and drafting appropriately? Or is the nature of baseball and human development such that picking 18-21-year-old guys for a sport that requires some on-the-job instruction means the crapshoot-ism is kinda baked in?

Jay Jaffe

3:27

Thanks for the kind words; that was a lot of fun to put together. A series more limited in scope would have to account for the draft being shortened to 40 rounds (as of 2012 IIRC), and I think the time horizon might make it hard to fully study the careers of the players in question. If a 2010 draftee makes it to the majors in 2014, he might not have even reached free agent eligibility, for example

WinTwins0410

3:27

Jay, are there any minimum "counting stats" that in your mind, you'd say *are* locks for HoF voting? And relatedly, that in your mind *should be* locks? Do any exist? 3,000 hits, 3,000 strikeouts, 500 (or 600) HRs. Or in your mind, are there none?

Jay Jaffe

3:31

I think those numbers still carry weight, with the caveat that PED allegations can derail anybody who reaches them. Which, I guess is a way of saying that no numbers are locks for voting. I'm OK with that, as context should matter, but i'm in favor of thoroughly appreciating that context, which is why, for example, I distinguish between PED usage before and after testing was put in place.

Mr. Burrito

3:31

Bigger HOF snub, Dick Allen or Reggie Smith?

Jay Jaffe

3:31

Dick Allen by far. Reggie Smith is a Hall of Very Good guy.

which reminds me...

Jay d

3:31

You've been put in charge of electing the inaugural class of the hall of great, the best of the best, who fall below the level of Hall of Famer. Banned players are still banned. Fortunately PEDs don't exist in this alternative world, so anyone who is Hall of Fame worthy based on WAR, and other factors, don't qualify. What is your five man class?

Jay Jaffe

3:34

I saw this question but am a little confused by it. if it's guys whose careers I greatly appreciate but aren't quite HOF worthy I'd say that Fernando Valenzuela is at the front of the line. I'd have to think about who else would be in that class, though.

Your Name

3:34

In an age where sarcasm and faux outrage seem to rule everything, I genuinely appreciate your authenticity, Jay.

Jay Jaffe

3:35

Thank you for the kind words. I certainly offer my share of sarcasm, especially on Twitter, but I think particularly at this sensitive moment it's important to try to cut through the bullshit when possible.

Folks, i've chatted for longer than i intended to today, which isn't a bad thing. Thanks for dropping by, and let's do this again next week!

The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen

3:36

Thoughts on Bill DeWitt's comments that the baseball industry isn't very profitable? Horsehockey? Or Total Crock of Horse****?

Jay Jaffe

3:36

LOL yes

Connecting…

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Jay Jaffe hosts a chat