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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 7/1/25
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Good afternoon, folk! Greetings from Wellfleet, where I'm on my annual family (semi) vacation
12:02
This is my working week up here, which kicked off with my tribute to the late Dave Parker, who sadly passed away less than a month before his Hall of Fame induction https://blogs.fangraphs.com/remembering-the-cobra-dave-parker-1951-202...
12:04
I don't think you have to be a strong proponent of Parker's HOF case to feel the sadness that comes with the timing of his death. I'm glad he experienced the outpouring of joy, appreciation and love that came with the news of his election.
I'm working on my annual midseason look at the best team defenses, and will have something on Clayton Kershaw's run for 3,000 strikeouts later this week as well.
12:05
Planning to take in a Cape Cod League game sometime after the 4th
anyway, on with the show
Rick
12:05
Sad that Parker passed away before the HOF Ceremony, but glad he at least knew he was elected. I'll always be bitter that Ron Santo didn't get in while he was alive. I'm convinced it was intentional because I think he rubbed some people  the wrong way when he played. In reality though, he was just an enthusiastic player who loved the game.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:05
It certainly felt that way with regards to Santo, that the voters waited out his death, and I feel the same with regards to Dick Allen.
Dallas
12:08
There’s a lot of talk about Ke’Bryan Hayes, Mitch Keller, etc on the market. Which of the Pirates Non-Rentals do you believe is most likely to be traded and which one would likely bring the biggest return?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
Man, I dunno. Keller and Bailey Falter could help somebody's rotation if the Pirates choose to deal them, but it's not like there's any return that's going to make the Pirates do anything but push the goddamn rock up the hill and watch it roll down again, à la Sisyphus.

Hayes is comparatively cheap and a good defender, but he needs some serious overhaul to be even a league-average hitter at this point. Kiner-Falefa is a useful utilityman. David Bednar is back to not sucking. Someone will take a flier on Andrew Heaney. None of it will matter so long as Bob Nutting owns the team
>this person<
12:13
Jay, is Wheeler in the hof in 10 years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:15
Been kicking this one around on BlueSky with a few people this morning. Last year Mike Petriello wrote favorably about his case in light of his having the best WAR of any pitcher over a seven-year span (https://www.mlb.com/news/zack-wheeler-building-strong-hall-of-fame-cas...), a concept that I've explored with regards to older pitchers without coming away terribly convinced even when it comes to more decorated hurlers (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-retiring-corey-kluber-and-the-rolling-...)
Today Patrick Dubuque has a piece at Baseball Prospectus https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/99499/cold-takes-the-w...
12:18
I haven't fully read and digested that one yet but he's always worth reading. IMO if Wheeler makes good on his stated plan to retire after his contract expires following the 2027 season, it's going to be hard to make a case that will stand out to voters unless he's banked either a Cy Young or a World Series ring. To me, the most likely HOF starting pitcher after Kershaw/Verlander/Scherzer/Greinke is Chris Sale, who I think is head and shoulders above Wheeler right now and just a year older
Mookie Bats
12:18
Thanks for your recent article on Mookie Betts's excellent SS defense. On the other side of the ledger, he's running a 99 wRC+ and there's not a huge difference between his .312 wOBA and his .332 xwOBA. Do we chalk this up to all that weight he lost during his March stomach illness?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:19
I don't think his illness and the weight loss can be discounted when it comes to his offense. Maybe the extra work he's putting in at shortstop is costing him some time to iron out his offensive woes, but given the shape of the Dodgers' roster right now, it's been a worthwhile tradeoff thanks to his defense
Guest
12:20
Hi Jay - thoughts on Nick Gonzalez? Could be a Gleyber Torres-esque player?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:21
he's a decent player but we're talking about a 26-year-old with 617 PA, 12 homers and a 92 wRC+. Gleyber Torres had 123 homers and a 115 wRC+ though his age-26 season — and he's still just 28. They are not on the same career path.
drplantwrench
12:22
is this finally the year that jo adell is for real? as mayor of jo island, i really need this to be the year
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:23
I'm impressed by the strides he's made, wrote about him a couple weeks back https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jo-adell-remains-a-work-in-progress-but-he.... I don't think he'll ever live up to the top prospect billing, but I do think he can sustain being an above-average regular
Billy Baroo
12:24
On a scale of mal- to mis-feance, where does Preller's refusal to upgrade LF rank, when "upgrade" is "any mediocre outfielder"?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:27
Right now the Padres look likely to land on the Replacement Level Killers list for their left field situation, and I see they've lately been using Gavin Sheets out there even against lefties, which is suboptimal. I imagine they probably find him a platoon partner who can help defensively. Doesn't seem like an unsolvable problem.
glt4dc
12:27
who is the best free agent pitcher signing ever - 2019 signing of Wheeler by the Phillies, 2015 signing of Scherzer by the Nats, someone else?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:29
I think Scherzer, Mike Mussina's Yankees deal, and Randy Johnson's Diamondbacks deal  stand out the most for me
Sodo Mojo
12:30
Not a Twins fan but I find Buxton's career really interesting.  He's not going to be a hall candidate but his WAR per 600 ABs buts him in that territory with injuries really derailing him over and over again.  Can you think of a player who's had a similar long term career with so many injury interruptions basically limiting their hall chances.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
The first guy who comes to mind is Eric Davis, but he wasn't as good a defender as Buxton even when healthy. That said, he was a better hitter, and even a healthy Buxton probably has a steep uphill battle for the Hall unless that .248 AVG and .308 OBP end up improving
Hockey Masked Batter
12:36
Just looked up a photo of Dave Parker wearing that hockey goalie mask Tony Baritrome got him after he broke his jaw. Holy cow! How intimidating must that have been for his opponents!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:37
As friend Dan Epstein wrote in his most recent edition of Jagged Time Lapse, Parker in the mask "made him look like a particularly fearsome cross between the Baseball Furies from The Warriors and Jason Voorhies from Friday the 13th, though of course his mask predated both of those films."
12:38
Scary as hell. Another friend, Paul Lukas, wrote a lot about the mask in his Uni Watch column back in 2008 https://www.espn.com/espn/page2/story?page=lukas/080724
Death and the Hall
12:39
I know Parker was already in, but is there any correlation between recent death and a rise in vote share for players still on the writers ballot? Has it helped in committees?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:40
It does seem to have helped some players, as I wrote back in 2019 in the wake of the late Roy Halladay's election https://blogs.fangraphs.com/roy-halladay-and-the-collision-of-baseball...
not the lunch guy
12:41
Do you think any those "if X overall mediocre player hits Y traditional HOF milestone, is he a HOFer?" will ever actually be tested? I'm talking Arraez 3000 hits, Schwarber 500 HR type stuff. You get questions about it so often but do you think anything of that sort is realistic, that a player with a sabermetrically non-HOF resume hits a milestone like that?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
I'm always skeptical because these guys tend to be too one-dimensional to withstand much further erosion in their games. Baseball doesn't have a whole lot of room for designated hitters who slip below average, and time is gonna come for Schwarber and Arraez sooner or later
RasiedUp
12:43
How do you feel about Junior Caminero, do you think he has a skillset that will last?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
The metrics say he's a pretty subpar third baseman, though Eric Longehagen, who graded him as a 60 FV prospect (future above-average regular to All-Star) despite concerns about contact and defense, forecast him to be an average defender eventually. He's clearly got a bat that will keep him around even with his chase tendency.
Wander-ing in the Wilderness
12:46
Orgs can't control their players' behavior, but to what extent should the Rays catch flak for failing to mentor or at least keep an eye on 80-grade prospect, $182M man Wander Franco? It'd be one thing if he was 16 and getting in trouble right after being signed as a July 2 guy, but he'd been with the Rays for years, achieved stardom, and merited some off-the-field guidance, right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
Broadly speaking, what Franco did isn't unprecedented among players (see Felipe Vazquez) but it's so tough to foresee, and it would be considered obtrusive if a team kept butting into a guy's life off the field absent specific concerns in some area — especially if he's in a foreign country. I think you have to instill it in all of your players — especially younger ones — that they need to be careful off the field but I'm not sure you can vet for something like that.
E. Sheehan
12:51
Is my control breakout real? Over 38 innings, across the majors and minors, I have 74K to 2BB
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