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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/12/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:05
Howdy, folks, and my apologies for the tardiness — my browser, which was bearing the load open tabs from about five different articles (including published ones on Shin-Soo Choo, Noath Syndergaard and Yadier Molina plus forthcoming ones on Daniel Descalso's pitching and Ken Giles melting down), crashed and needed a reset. On with the show...
Bob
12:05
Should Sheffield really be a dealbreaker for the Yankees getting Machado?  I know his arm is electric, but do you miss out on a HoF'er because you won't let go of a guy who hasn't mastered his control problems in the minors?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:08
Even if Machado may be a future Hall of Famer, the Yankees would be giving up six-plus years of a very good pitching prospect for what amounts to a 2 1/2-month rental to fill a need that they already have covered reasonably well by either Didi Gregorius or Miguel Andujar, plus whatever need might have for Sheffield's services later this season. That's a very steep price to pay, and I can't blame the Yankees for searching for alternatives.
Bo
12:09
Is Dansby Swanson going to hit enough to stay as an everyday player?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
He'll be able to produce on both sides of the ball — remember, the offensive demands for a shortstop are relatively low — well enough to stay as a regular, yes. Even with an 85 wRC+ this year, he's been worth 1.2 WAR thanks to above-average glovework (+3.4 UZR, +11 DRS). Based upon his track record, he's projected to hit better ROS, and as a 24-year-old, can expect some growth in his offensive skill over the next few years. If Andrelton Simmons can become an above-average hitter in time, I don't think it's beyond Swanson.
stever20
12:12
how crazy was what Arizona did last night with their pitching?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:14
Crazy — I've got a post forthcoming on this, as noted above — but unfortunately necessitated due to injuries. Keeping Shelby Miller, who's in his fourth outing off Tommy John surgery, out there for 37 pitches in the first inning is managerial malfeasance on the part of Torey Lovullo. This isn't a tough-guy contest.
Bort
12:15
Do you think the Padres will have any luck getting Eric Hosmer to understand that they're not paying him $144 million to hit the ball straight into the ground?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
You don't commit $144 million to a player whose swing and style you're desperate to change. The Padres can hope that Hosmer elevates the ball with more consistency, but they knew what they were getting, a player whom many of us felt was a mixed bag to begin with. If asking him to tinker with his swing is exacerbating his groundball tendencies, they need to back off, because warts and all, he was a pretty very productive hitter in 2 of the last 3 seasons.
stever20
12:18
Can you give me any hope as a Nats fan?  Every time you think they're going to get going, they slip up.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:21
I'm still of the mind that the Nationals' biggest problems are injury-related. Losing Wieters, Zimmerman, Murphy and Eaton was the type of blow that most teams can't withstand for very long, and it doesn't help that Murphy has been particularly dreadful 63 wRC+, -0.3 WAR) since returning. I think they have the talent to pull out of this, because I do think at least one of the two young teams ahead of them, the Braves and Phillies, is bound to fade sooner or later.
Bo
12:22
Ender Inciarte has the lowest wRC+ (82) of all the lineup regulars, yet continues to hit leadoff. Is CF a potential upgrade spot for the Braves?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:24
Inciarte's glovework in CF is strong enough that he's still an above-average producer (1.2 WAR thus far), but he's way overexposed. He shouldn't be hitting leadoff at all. Given his 53 wRC+ against lefties this yea, and 74 for his career, a platoon partner is in order. At the very least, they could give just-released righty Austin Jackson a trial and look for a bigger move at the deadline.
CT Pilgrim
12:24
Jaff, what kind of return could the Nats get for Bryce if they continue to fall out of the pennat race?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:25
I'm Jaffe (rhymes with taffy) not Jaff (as in Decker), and the Nationals aren't trading Bryce.
Guest
12:25
Corey Dickerson has been worth 1.6 WAR with a 116 wRC+ being paid 6M. CJ Cron has been worth 1.3 WAR with a 122 wRC+ being paid 2.3 M. The Rays are geniuses after all???
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:27
One look at that set of new stadium drawings and its lack of a funding plan tells me they're not geniuses.
Grant
12:27
Will you be at HOF weekend? Out of all of the big names there, you're the one I *definitely* need to meet.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:30
YES! I'll be selling books at Willis Monie Books, 139 Main St, Cooperstown, from 1-3 PM on Saturday. Please stop by and say hi, and if you mention this chat when buying a book, I'll give you a 12% discount ($22 instead of $25 — I don't want to deal with pocket change)
v2micca
12:30
Is Johan Camargo making a compelling case for increased playing time in 2019?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
I think he's doing enough such that a 3B upgrade isn't a must-have for the Braves at the deadline.
dirty dan
12:31
Justus Sheffield, Andujar, Clint Frazier + Dillion Tate for Gausman and Machado, who says no?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
The Yankees would never give up that much talent in such a scenario.
v2micca
12:32
Assuming HOF voters don't lower their ridiculous standards for pitchers, what else does Verlander need to do at this point to secure membership?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:35
if he gets to 3,000 strikeouts (he's at 2,576), he's probably home free, and likewise if he could bring home another Cy Young or another championship (as a central player)
Joe
12:35
Of the Phillies and the Braves, who in your estimation is likely to fall off?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:37
Just a guess but I'd say the Phillies, I don't see enough offense from them.
Hose
12:37
Even though ZIPS and Steamer are pessimistic, Tim Anderson is still projected for a 20/30 season with solid SS defense. Is he underrated?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
Yeah. He's gotten the walk rate to 6.6% this year, about 3x last year's, and his wRC+ to 98. Throw that in with average glovework and he's already at 1.9 WAR, likely to land in the 3-4 range. That's a pretty solid season
Pete
12:39
What could the hold-up possibly be between a Nats/Ramos reunion? Even with Wieters back, they're still just one freak injury away from Pedro Severino's disasterous bat back in the line-up. Could the Rays be asking for something unreasonable?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:39
They're haggling over how many trucks of Windex to send for that NeverNeverDome
YKnotDisco?!
12:40
What site has the batted ball angle charts? Like the one shown today in Dan's post.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
I believe they're from http://baseballsavant.mlb.com but not sure exactly where — Dan had to ask the great @darenw where to find them. Ask one of those two guys for guidance
Hard hit rate
12:42
Do you think voters will ever factor a player's WBC success into his HoF case the way they often do with playoff success?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
Doubtful. It's an infrequent event like the Olympics, and on that subject, players such as Pat Borders, Ben Sheets and Doug Mientkiewicz who were on the US 2000 gold medal team didn't even get on a HOF ballot. I don't see Roy Oswalt (eligible this winter) going over the top on that basis either.
Andrew
12:45
Regarding Molina...I just don't understand the case that he's a HOFer, even after reading your very informative article. It seems that he only gets in based on subjective fluff (all star games, awards, etc). Can a player's value really be that un-quantifiable? Because there has to be a lot of value we can't count for him to be a HOFer...
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
As I said via Twitter last night on this topic, some areas within catcher defense are relatively easy to quantify (SB/CS, pitch blocking), some are harder but not impossible (framing), and some remain elusive (game calling/staff handing). Getting a good, solid estimate of value of MOST of a catcher's work is still worthwhile, and for what we have, Molina does pretty well. There's still some stuff we don't know, and room enough to quibble either way, but I think the volume within the industry that feels he is worthy based upon the high-visibility things that I outlined is ultimately going to provide enough to sway the result in his favor. I'm not sure I agree with that, but let's see how the next few years plays out.
Sam
12:49
Ken Giles sent down, what gives?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
The ERA is bad, and the Astros say they aren't happy with how his slider looks (something I'll take a closer look at), and it seems he's got some issues in handling his emotions based upon both his f-bomb exit and his May 1 self-punch incident. There may be a punitive element to the demotion, but they've already had issues with his end-game reliability, and this is a good chance to straighten him out.
Bob
12:52
MLB is a billion dollar industry. Why should local municipalities foot majority of the bill, when teams want a new stadium?
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