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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/12/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
That's a billion dollar question — per stadium, basically. Study after study has shown that the gains for taxpayers in funding stadiums are illusory. Check out Neil deMause's Field of Schemes book and website for numerous examples of this kind of chicanery.
SF
12:54
Would the Yankees consider giving up either Torres or Andujar for deGrom?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:55
They're not giving up Torres but yes, i think if it came to it, they'd part with Andujar for 2 1/2 controllable years of an ace-caliber pitcher.
Guest
12:56
Yankees could easily trade for Machado while giving Andujar another season to work on the glove, which has looked terrible right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
The glove hasn't been good (-7 UZR, -12 DRS), but I haven't heard any complaints about his efforts to improve. Unless there are, I don't think you can send down a kid who's hitting that well — unless maybe he spirals into a deep slump — without risking some longer-term consequences.
Kristen
1:00
Shouldn't the Nats be looking at Chirinos?  Would come way cheaper than Ramos.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:01
He seems like a decent fallback option, if the Rangers are willing to deal him, but he's not as good a pitch framer as Ramos, nor does he have the familiarity with some members of the Nats' pitching staff as Ramos does from his years with the team.
YKnotDisco?!
1:02
What do you make of Texas' manager not calling on Choo to PH with a chance to win (go ahead) late in last night's game?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:03
Choo's been nursing a quad strain for several days, and Banister was more concerned with that, and his inability to play defense right now, than with the on-base streak. See https://www.star-telegram.com/sports/mlb/texas-rangers/article21457062...
Moltar
1:04
Am I off base to think that the Mets should trade everybody of value (including deGrom and Syndergaard), but that they should wait until the offseason when they can bring in a dedicated GM (or ideally an Epstein/Friedman style Prez of Ops) who can make the deal with an actual plan for the future in mind? I know their value will be at its peak at the deadline, but nothing good can come from a trade negotiated by GM Jeff Wilpon.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:04
That was basically my conclusion from Tuesday's piece https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-prospect-of-a-trade-looms-over-reh...
Lee
1:04
Do you think it ends up being David Ortiz who ends up breaking the PED logjam in Hall of Fame voting?  Here's a guy that would certainly get in without any PED association.  He's also a guy who is extremely well liked by all his contemporaries and media members.  He also has a very ambiguous connection to PED use as we don't know if or what he tested positive for as his name ended up in leaked testing from the MItchell report.   Basically giving cover to the media to vote for him and still keep Bonds and Clemens out.    But after he gets in, do we see a thawing of attitudes towards the big fish that have been kept out due to PEDs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:07
If they're not elected sooner, Bonds and Clemens will be in their final year on the ballot in 2022, the same year that Ortiz debuts. I'm on record as believing that they'll all be elected, though my most recent five-year outlook had Ortiz needing a 2nd year https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/01/27/baseball-hall-fame-edgar-martinez-ba...
Luke
1:07
Will the DH rule ever become uniform?  I enjoy the strategy of the double switch but I hate seeing pitchers get injured at the plate
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:08
I think there's a decent possibility of an MLB-wide DH as part of the next CBA or round of expansion, whichever comes later.
John
1:08
In regards to Molina, is his career WAR actually hurt by the fact (at least I believe this is true) that teams didn't run against him and he therefore could not throw as many people out?  Moreover, does it factor in the quality of the person attempting the steal (it seems like only the fastest players try stealing on Molina)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:12
Eh, a little but not that much. Roughly speaking, each CS is about 2x as valuable as each SB, so if he's preventing SB at his usual clip (41% CS rate), he's saving runs and if he's not (21% CS currently), he's costing them. You can see the impact in his RsbC column here. -2 right now, has been as high as 8 (2012), and only one person has topped that since (Russell Martin, +9 in 2013 https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/8L3QW
Babe Lincoln
1:14
How much value does Zack Wheeler have?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:17
Some but not as much as deGrom or Syndergaard, obviously. He's an adequate but not so durable number 4 starter with a year of arb-eligibility remaining. I'd say he's much more likely to be dealt than the aforementioned pair, and I'd say the same about Matz, who's got a lot more value in terms of club control (next year is his first of 3 arb years)
Bo
1:17
Let's say the Braves are in the WC game... Who are they starting? Folty?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:19
Quite possibly Folty if he doesn't, um, Folter down the stretch. Maybe somebody they trade for. Maybe Johnny Wholestaff.
Mister Puppy
1:19
I used to read Eno's sandwich chats and feel guilty that I eat at subway about four times a week, the same thing every time. People tell me I could eat much better but I stubbornly refuse because I enjoy Subway. I guess my question is... am I Eric Hosmer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:19
Man, I need to order some lunch, but I'm not stooping to Subway.
Rusty Dusty
1:20
Who would you choose as the starting pitcher in the All-Star game for the AL team?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:24
I think you can make a case for any one of 4 guys: Sale, Verlander, Bauer and Severino — all having great seasons and pretty close as far as ERA and FIP. Without investigating which of them may be on turn... here's how I'd decide.

I don't want to hear what Bauer has to say about it, so he's out. Sale's started two ASGs, Verlander one, so I'd be tempted to go with Severino in the interest of giving him the chance to do it once in his life. He's certainly pitched well enough to do it, even if others have as well.
Bo
1:24
What do you make of the recent Norris-Hicks news?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:25
I didn't think I could have a lower opinion of Matheny as a manager than I already did, but here we are. I'd launch both him and Norris into the next rocket into the sun if I could.
Unhappy taxpayers
1:25
Okay I have to bite, since I'm also not a fan. What don't you like about the new Tampa stadium renderings?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:28
1) They have an $892 million doodle and no idea how to fund it
2) turf and no retractable dome, ugh (can't grow grass in a dome)
3) I'm extremely skeptical about the feasibility of a clear dome would work, since it didn't in the Astrodome (they had to paint the ceiling when players couldn't see balls). The volume of bird shit it will collect alone will make the thing a running joke.
Sam
1:28
Choo to Philadelphia?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:29
I don't see them or anybody taking on the lion's share of the $42 million he has remaining beyond this year, and that's even if he can be an adequate full-time OF, which I'm skeptical about
Todd
1:29
Hi Jay! Have you ever attended the Winter Meetings? If so, do you think that I, just a fan, might find the experience redeeming? I’ve always had an urge to go, but I also suspect that the most likely outcome is that I find myself with nothing to do, sitting at the hotel bar, reading coverage on my phone just as I would have done at home.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:31
I've been to a half dozen of them, and while it has great value for the media and for job seekers, it's not really something that's geared towards fan participation. If you want to see a bunch of writers milling around while dividing their attention between renewing old acquaintances and looking at their phones while they wait for the next story to break, you need to consider finding better hobbies.
Bart
1:32
Do you answer fantasy baseball questions?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:32
Not really, no. I haven't played since like 2011, though I wrote about it for a couple years after that to help pay the bills. I don't know anything about DFS and don't think about baseball from a fantasy POV anymore
Mister Puppy
1:33
Idea: have an opener for the ASG. Start with like Diaz. Shoutout Tampa
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:33
Yeah, nope. There are enough starters who are far more worthy of consideration, and most of them are only going to work 1-2 innings anyway.
Babe Lincoln
1:34
To Todd re Winter Meetings.  Did the same last year in DC.  Just went as a fan.  Mostly nothing to do.  Didn't see anything interesting.
Desperate, Confused Marlins Fan
1:34
what recent Norris-Hicks news?
AvatarJay Jaffe
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