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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/15/22
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:02
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my final chat of the first half of the 2022 season. Bear with me for a bit as i finish a late lunch...
some housekeeping: Just before the news that he had been cleared to ramp up his swings, I published this about Fernando Tatis Jr and the slumping Padres https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fernando-tatis-jr-remains-in-limbo-as-padr.... The article has since been revised to reflect the news
2:04
I spent the rest of this week doing an unofficial series on some interesting All-Star selections:

Sandy Alcantara https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sandy-alcantara-is-the-games-hardest-worki...

Willson and William Contreras https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-rare-all-star-brother-act-for-willson-an...

Byron Buxton https://blogs.fangraphs.com/byron-buxton-is-finally-an-all-star/
2:05
OK, on with the show...
x2R
2:05
Do you like the HR Derby? Fav matchup? What's the Dream HR derby roster for you?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
Yes, I'm a big Home Run Derby fan and will once again preview the event for FanGraphs, on Monday
2:08
Of the matchups this year, I think any bracket with Pete Alonso (#2 seed, paired with Ronald Acuña Jr) and the one with Juan Soto (#4, paired with José Ramírez) have my interest the most.
2:10
I'm disappointed that the contest won't have Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton, no Mike Trout, and no Shohei Ohtani. Add those guys to Alonso, Schwarber, Soto and Vlad Jr. and that would be my ideal from among today's players
Mr. Burrito
2:10
If Dodgers win the WS this year are they a dynasty?  Could they qualify even without a WS win this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
I've written before that I consider the Dodgers a dynasty, which to me is defined by the continuity of repeatedly contending for a championship rather than just consecutive World Series wins. Are the 2010, '12, '14 Giants a dynasty? in my book, yes, and likewise, I'd include the 1996 Yankees within their run
On the subject, I wrote this about the Dodgers after their 2020 World Series win https://blogs.fangraphs.com/making-the-case-for-the-2020-dodgers-place...
Guest
2:12
What’s the way forward for the Angels, at this point?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:13
Man, I don't know. I think Arte Moreno should sell his soul to Satan in exchange for healthy seasons from Ohtani, Trout, Rendon, continued development of the young kids, and a healthy rotation. I think that's a fair trade — just think of the franchise value!
Lonestar
2:14
Jay has statcast not been working well for you either On mobile
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:15
I almost never try to use Statcast on mobile. Thankfully, FanGraphs' player pages and leaderboards have most of what I want to see at a glance (EV leaders, xwOBA leaders, etc.)
Alex
2:15
Michael Harris has been quite impressive in his rookie season. (Even though he's been slumping in July, he's posted a .708 OPS this month, which is quite acceptable given his great CF defense.) What do you project for him going forward? Could he have a Mike Cameron/Steve Finley-type career? He already appears like he could exceed the accomplishments of his mentor Marquis Grissom!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:19
i've been impressed with what i've seen, but will defer to the prospect experts as to his future. Eric upgraded him from a 45 FV prospct to a 50 FV one, which is an average major leaguer. A Finley or Cameron is more like a 55, an above-average regular who might get an All-Star berth here or there. Could Harris get there? Sure, if he continues to show growth at the major league level, actualize that raw power into game power and so on. I think it's too soon to know — if pitchers are adjusting to him, it's on him to adjust.
Cat Latos
2:19
How does a Cody Bellinger happen? It seems so obvious he needs to not swing out of his shoes all the time. Why does he keep swinging out of his shoes? 2019 Cody knew better!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:21
Bellinger obviously had a lot of success very early in his major league career, but he's been a mess. i think the shoulder injury is a big part of his decline, and his tendency towards relentless tinkering isn't helping. I wonder if he needs some different voices in his ear about finding a plan and sticking with it.
Craig
2:22
Thanks for taking time today Jay, you have seen some great right field arms on the Dodgers, Reggie Smith, Raul Mondesi, Yasiel Puig, where does Mookie Betts rank among them?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:23
oh man, that is quite a list. I didn't get to see enough of Smith  but he had a strong reputation. Mondesi was probably the bes; even late in his career with the Yankees, the sight of him clearing a ball off the wall and cocking his arm made the hair of my neck stand up, as if he were saying, "Do you feel lucky, punk?"

Betts has a great arm, more accurate than Puig, and I think he'd be 1A on my list
Blake Seams
2:23
Setting aside Verlander, Greinke, Kershaw and Scherzer, who are the next four or five most likely to reach the hall of fame from currently active pitchers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:26
It is anybody's guess beyond those because nobody else is really close, and that includes the trio of relievers (Kimbrel, Jansen, Chapman) who have all hit some stumbling blocks. DeGrom, with his two Cy Young awards is the best-positioned, but he has to stay healthy. Cole has all the tools to make a run.
I'd put my money on those two but they're a long ways off
Jason Kendall
2:27
What does the future hold for Clarke Schmidt? Yankees as a SP, Yankees as an RP, or Trade Bait?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
His command issues and the lack of a reliable third pitch (so far) suggest that he's more likely to be a bullpen piece, a very useful multi-inning reliever. I'm sure that teams will try to trade for him in hopes that he can become a starter, and maybe the Yanks will give in if it fills a significant need but I doubt they'll move him just for the sake of doing so
Zach
2:29
The Mariners - WTF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:30
We saw them as a slighty-above-.500 team at the outset of the season, and that's where they are, albeit with a higher-variance path than anyone expected. As somebody with a ton of family on both sides in Seattle, I would love to see them get a playoff spot and end that drought.
Sad, Confused Marlins Fan
2:30
What are you most looking forward to in the Futures game?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:31
a year when it returns to a television channel I already subscribe to. I don't subscribe to Peacock Premium and am not about to; even their biggest draw, the Sunday MLB package, doesn't fit because I'm busy parenting during weekend daytimes.
MLB can bite my ass on that one
Gashouse Gorilla
2:31
Does the Yankees recent rough spot make them an (over-aggressive) buyer at the deadline? They are still well ahead of the field, and replacing their poor-performing assets (Gallo i.e) isn't critical.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
They're a powerhouse team but one with a few notable flaws and concerns. Since the ultimate goal is to win a championship, I suspect that they'll fortify with October in mind, and that probably means shoring up the bullpen and the outfield more than anything else.

I'd be very surprised if Gallo is still a Yankee on August 3, because I think they'll land somebody. It bums me out because I think Gallo is much better than this but it just hasn't worked out
Mike M
2:33
Some people are talking about the Angels trading Shohei.  Seems crazy to be, but... how crazy is it?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:35
At some point I think it's going to happen, probably this winter unless the Angels start showing signs of life.
KCbbq
2:36
Ever since the Tigers moved Riley Greene to the leadoff spot he's struggled. You expect them to drop Greene in the order? And does he adjust to what the league is doing to him and start to rake?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
I think moving him to leadoff so early in his career was probably a mistake in the first place. He's more of a middle-of-the-order type based on his hit and power tool combos. Eric graded him as a 60 FV prospect and I think we should expect him to get there, but that doesn't mean it's going to happen for him immediately.
Appa Yip Yip
2:39
Would you rather be a fan of a team that tries to be good and consistently fails, like the Angels or Rockies, or a fan of a team about to be intentionally bad for an indeterminate amount of time in the hopes of being good half a decade from now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:40
you left out the words "or sometimes" in front of Rockies, because I don't think they are consistently trying. Of course I'd rather see a team try even if they fail rather than just tanking, which i think has become far too normalized in MLB
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