JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/16/21

Jay Jaffe

2:01

Hey folks, good afternoon and welcome to my first chat of the second half of the season. I've got a piece up today on All-Star Game MVP Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with an eye on the areas he's improved https://blogs.fangraphs.com/vladimir-guerrero-jr-is-soaring-to-new-hei...

2:02

and also not one but two podcast appearances, one with Dan Szymborki for FanGraphs Audio in which we discussed the Home Run Derby, All-Star Game, and Joey Gallo https://t.co/XNafn24I3L, and one with Kevin Goldstein in which we not only discussed the aforementioned festivities and some Hall of Fame stuff but also chatted with a reader who's getting his PhD in studying graffiti (?!) https://t.co/I8hUS5v68d

2:03

Anyway, on with the show

Steve

2:04

What is wrong with Wander Franco? An 80 hit tool? Swings at balls and let’s strikes go by.

Jay Jaffe

2:04

Guy's been in the majors less than a month. Mike Trout hit .220/.281/.390 in 40 games in 2011. As Kevin Goldstein would say, calm down.

Baseball is hard

2:06

Feels like the Cubs' return on Pederson is pretty surprisingly solid right?

Jay Jaffe

2:07

i think so. platoon guy with 2 1/2 months left on an expiring contract in exchange for a 40+ FV prospect? He may never pan out but it's not like Joc was going to bring in a starting pitcher

Rakin’ in Reykjavik

2:08

Greetings from Iceland! I’m in a fantasy baseball group with a lot of Chicago fans (both teams) and one particular gentleman is convinced that Javy is better/more valuable than KB because he is more “clutch”. Having already tossed things like WAR, OPS+, and runs created at him to no avail, what can I do to demolish this absurd opinion once and for all? Also, does Javy provide any value at all for any franchise besides the Cubs?

Jay Jaffe

2:10

wow, i didn't know there were baseball fans in Iceland! Feel free to point out that Bryant has about 15 WPA in his time as a Cub, while Baez has... 0.68 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y.... Their Clutch scores are both pretty similar, -3.52 and -3.73. IN YOUR FACE, so-called friend of my new friend Rakin'!

2:12

Of course Baez is still a valuable player, an above-average defender at a premium position with a bat that's league average or better in most years. The shape of h is production is a little weird sometimes due to contact and on-base issues but for the most part he'd help just about any roster

Bobby

2:12

Covid outbreak on the Yankees might hurt them for the next 5-10 days. If they fall even further behind before the trade deadline will they become sellers?

Jay Jaffe

2:13

It's possible, despite what they've said in recent weeks. And SMH, this is a real mess they're in, with 6 players out as they head into a series with AL East-leading Boston. Whoever on the team wasn't vaccinated and got sick may have put the nail in the coffin of their season.

2:14

Just curious why the live scoreboard isn't updated to today? Love the site

Jay Jaffe

2:14

I will ask

Bobby

2:14

By the way, Meg hasn't held a chat in almost two months. Is everything alright?

Jay Jaffe

2:16

I can't speak for Meg but keeping this site up and running with the volume of articles we're publishing is a huge task. Throw in occasional travel and the fact that July is a high-volume month due to draft/All-Star/deadline stuff and you can understand that all of us have to prioritize what we can do.

JupiterBrando

2:16

How many Home Runs Derbys does a guy need to win before it actually starts to boost his Hall of Fame case?

Jay Jaffe

2:17

Man, who knows? It literally has yet to matter in a single HOF case. The multiple winners so far are Griffey, Prince Fielder and Alonso, and guys, I don't think Prince is getting in.

Estevão

2:18

Liam Hendriks pitched for the 2014 Royals. That seems weird. Imagine if he was LIAM HENDRIKS at the time

Jay Jaffe

2:20

I remember Hendriks as a 6+ ERA starter on the 2011-13 Twins, and was surprised when he began to put it together in Toronto, and even moreso when he emerged as a relief ace in Oakland. It just goes to show that the bullpen remains a viable path for a whole lot of failed starters.

2:21

Re the live scoreboard: "fixing that right now...I think that there was only one game and it was not played yesterday is tricking the system into thinking it's still yesterday"

Jacob

2:21

How often is Trackman/Statcast wrong about Ball Flight Distance, Exit Velos, Pitch Location and Pitch type? What is it most often wrong about?

Jay Jaffe

2:23

That's a question best asked of somebody who works for MLB, such as Mike Petriello or Tom Tango, but if I can hazily recall some conversation awhile back, it's most likely to struggle on balls that go straight up. I'm not sure if that was before the transition to Hawkeye or not.

When I was doing my Derby writeup there was one player who had a few launch angles missing but that's about it.

jaysfan9293

2:24

is there anything to read into the twins' offered buxton extension as to their plans for beyond this year? they're not really in a great place to tear down from but I don't know whether this roster can be competitive during buxton / berrios / garver's final years of control either. additionally if they do decide to sell what do you estimate a berrios package to look like? (aside from value, does minnesota want help immediately and would they prefer pitching prospects as I've heard around)

Jay Jaffe

2:28

Rosenthal reported that if Buxton rejects the deal, he's likely to be traded either this season or this winter. I don't know how serious they are about a full-scale teardown; on paper they have a fair bit of talent that's under club control, but some years they just sink like a stone. As for what they might get for Berrios — it's really tough to know without knowing whether they're looking to retool on the fly (in which case, an MLB-ready starter is probably part of the package) or going into a bigger teardown.

2:29

just so we're clear: i'm going to tell you all that calibrating trade packages on the fly 30 times in one chat isn't going to happen.

Steve Herd

2:29

Are we nearing the point where vaccinated players start to put their collective feet down and demand that the stubborn holdouts get their shot for the good of the team?

Jay Jaffe

2:34

the situation is so polarized that I don't think that's going to do much good. Maybe the Yankees' situation scares some players straight as to the consequences of their refusals, but the ones that weren't going to listen to gentle, rational persuasion aren't going to listen to angry demands.

If I understand correctly, what would really help is if the FDA would grant full authorization to the vaccines, because their status as emergency use authorization opens up the question of whether employers can demand their employees be vaccinated under such conditions.

Johnny5Alive

2:34

Unlike the Yankees, Mets still aren't at 85%. Is that the thing that's going to cost them a playoff spot

Jay Jaffe

2:35

Given that one of the teams pursuing them, the Phillies, is in the same boat, i'm not so sure.

Estevão

2:35

if the opportunity is there the Red Sox should consider signing a SS (Story for instance)move Bogaerts to 3B or 2B. Devers could 1B?DH. they have money and Bogaerts really shouldn't play SS long term

Jay Jaffe

2:36

Moving Bogaerts off shortstop would make sense, but Devers has improved significantly at third base, and moving him across the diamond just to accommodate another move drains a whole lot of value.

All of which is to say that at some point, the Sox may look to trade one of the two.

Derek

2:37

Also you can catch Meg three times a week on Effectively Wild (which, for my money, is the best baseball podcast around)!

Jay Jaffe

2:37

Yes, the podcast stuff takes up a hell of a lot of Meg's time too.

Guest

2:37

Maybe an article idea, but since Dan has been doing zips time warp articles, I was curious if you'd be willing to weigh in on them for the HoF's and other older players since you're also a historian of the game. Specifically, I just marvel at Lou Gerhig's page and always wonder what-if (aside from viewing him as probably the best 1B ever) from the zips perspective and what or maybe how that would change/shape perception of players that many of us never actually saw live.

Jay Jaffe

2:39

teaming with Dan on some ZiPS/HOF content is an idea that crosses my mind on a monthly basis if not more frequently. It's a matter of finding time to do them, particularly when one or both of us isn't buried in something bigger

Estevão

2:40

Did you know that taking Kershaw off the list, Derek Holland is the active LHP with the most regular season shutouts in all of baseball

Jay Jaffe

2:40

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