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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/16/21
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Derek
2:40
Missed that Kelenic was called up again today! How do you think he fares in his second go-roung?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
Better than the first. There was a ridiculous amount of pressure that greeted his arrival given all that went on over the winter, and in addition to putting up dreadful numbers, the reports are that he was mentally overwhelmed. The Mariners believe he's in a better place and able to handle this now. I hope they're right.
Joe
2:42
Will Bellinger turn it around in the 2nd half?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
I think so. His numbers for July are terrible but his barrel rate for the month is about 14% and he's hitting a lot of balls in the air.
Walton Dilcox
2:44
What goes into sports rumors? I find that “reportedly” “there are signals” the Cubs are looking to extend Rizzo and Baez to be hilarious because it’s saying nothing yet is News in the 21st century
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:47
generally rumors like this come from agents and executives, sometimes first-hand off the record, sometimes second-hand, which is when you get more vague terms like "signals." I will say that the Bryant-trade/Baez-Rizzo-re-sign concept has been out there for months — in part due to Bryant's grievance and Rizzo's previous contract — and if things break along those lines it won't be a shock.
Jack Morris
2:48
Which 2 pitchers ROS out of Stripling, Sandoval, J. Ross & L. Webb? Thanks!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:48
Can't say I have any great idea about your needs in fantasy but if I'm assembling a roster i'd like Webb and Sandoval (assuming you're talking Patrick not Pablo) out of those four.
WinTwins0410
2:49
Jay, help me understand: why is Rick Reuschel’s career fWAR so high (68.2), relatively speaking? He had kind of an odd career, and although he had some fine years, it surprises me a little that his WAR is so high. Just intuitively, I’d expect it to be closer to the high 50s than the high 60s.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:54
Here's something that Baseball-Reference's Adam Darowski wrote awhile back about Reuschel with respect to bWAR, which accounts for the fact that he was generally very hurt by his defenses and pitched in very tough ballparks http://hallofstats.com/articles/rick-reuschel-hall-of-fame-value
From an fWAR standpoint, the park adjustments matter, but defense is stripped out, he was very good at preventing walks and homers.
FriarFan
2:55
Hello from nearby Washington Heights! I'm wondering whether we should be concerned long term about Tatis' issues throwing from short. I wasn't too concerned in his rookie year, was delighted to see him looking so polished in the pandemic season, but the massive regression this year has me worried he might not be a sustainable player at SS long term.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:57
I think there are very legitimate concerns about his defense, and reportedly a year ago, the Padres entertained the idea of trading for Lindor and moving Tatis to center field. https://theathletic.com/1604663/2020/02/13/why-the-padres-have-enterta.... I doubt anything is imminent but I wouldn't be surprised if two years from now he was playing somewhere besides shortstop.
Farhandrew Zaidman
2:57
What do you make of Andrew Friedman's comments that the Dodgers aren't necessarily locked in on acquiring starting pitching and may just make 'pen moves instead?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
probably some element of posturing to that
Maddoning
2:59
Been to Drummer's Cove yet?  I kayaked through there in early June, lots to see with turtle and horseshoe crab season...near high tide of course!  Don't want to get stuck in there....
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
Yes, walked around there a few times at low tide while we were on the Cape during June. Saw a ton of horseshoe crabs, dead and alive.
The Stranger
3:00
Assuming current usage, how many years as an elite hitter/pretty darn good pitcher does it take for Ohtani to have a real HoF shot?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:01
if he gets to 10 years and is still doing the 2-way thing while being above-average, I like his chances at the Hall. His will be a singular candidacy with no real precedent.
dave
3:01
Just saw where Starlin Castro is now on admin leave for domestic abuse charges; I've been holding him as a marginal player and because our 10 team NL only league is so shallow....but Alcides Escobar is available, is he a reasonable pick up given the Nats situation?  Other choices: Pillar, Torreyes, Maton, Alejo Lopez, Zimmerman,
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
Alas, my wife just published a story about Castro at The Athletic moments before the chat started. Not much in the way of details so far. https://theathletic.com/2711372/2021/07/16/starlin-castro-placed-on-ad...

While I realize that you have a fantasy-related question that pertains to this, I'm going to let you solve that one without my input, hopefully while thinking about how trivial it is compared to what's going on in the player's life and that of anyone whom he may have harmed.
WinTwins0410
3:05
Jay, I read your excellent 2014 SI.com piece about Ken Boyer and your general view that he belongs in the Hall. For as long as I can remember, Ken Boyer has been a staple on veterans committees. What’s your thought on why he hasn’t been able to get over the hump? His premature death and general absence from the baseball world? Crowded ballots? A lack of a push from St. Louis writers? A general lack of flashiness? I “get” that he really doesn’t have any shot at the Golden Days committee this year; I realize that Allen, Kaat, Minoso and Oliva all are likely to draw more votes than Boyer.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
I'm very pro-Boyer here. I think the fact that he's not in owes to a combination of the factors you mention plus the voters' general difficulty in balancing the offensive and defensive demands of third base. Both the position and the era have a backlog of strong candidates, and so he escapes notice. He was kind of Ron Santo before Santo, except as a better defender with a higher profile thanks to his MVP award and championship. Got a lot of thoughts about this in The Cooperstown Casebook.
Kevin
3:08
How do you think the Astros "glut" of good starting pitchers play itself out in the playoffs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
Funny I was just talking about my concerns over their rotation depth with Kevin on the aforementioned podcast. Greinke has a sore shoulder, guys like Garcia and McCullers are going to have workload concerns at some point, and Framber suddenly has command issues. That McCullers played a significant part in the team's 2017 championship coming out of the bullpen should serve as a reminder that teams will always find roles for their best and most able-bodied pitchers come postseason time. Ask me in September what they do and we'll see; for now, i'd hardly be surprised if they add a starter at the deadline.
steve
3:12
Do you drop Alzolay for Patrick Sandoval in a Mixed 12 team league with QS?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
in a New York minute.
KB
3:14
Is Kris Bryant anywhere close to a Hall of Fame trajectory?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:16
He's checked a couple of significant boxes with the MVP and championship but 27.5 bWAR at age 29 isn't what I'd call a HOF trajectory — there are 3B who are in who had less at this point, but they're in *in spite* of that age-WAR combo, either having gotten a big break from the voters or actually had very strong 30+ careers. https://stathead.com/tiny/YWN4g
Robbie
3:16
What team do you think would be the best fit for Byron Buxton if the Twins don’t resign him long term?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:21
A team like the Mets who need a real center fielder — oh yeah, i found a way to flog that dead horse, baby — would make sense except for the fact that the Mets still seem to have a hard time keeping players healthy. He'd make some sense for Houston, who have gotten more out of Myles Straw than I expected. Maybe the Rangers, even though Adolis Garcia has had a breakout season and good numbers; you can move him to a corner.
Pumpsie Green
3:22
For contracts, how do you rank the upcoming FA shortstop class now? I think you had it Seager-Correa-Story-Baez once Lindor signed his extension. Has it changed, or has Semien moved into the group for you?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:24
Semien is 2-4 years older than those other guys so I don't see him getting as big a deal but in terms of risk, I'd be more comfortable with spending less on him than going big on Story or Baez given their 2020-21 inconsistencies
Josh R
3:24
Do you know if these 4 or more weeks that Bauer is on leave are counted as "time-served" against an eventual suspension?  This whole thing is so sordid and weird. I don't know if I even want hm to ever come back or if he is being railroaded.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:26
if he is suspended, yes, those admin days will count as time served towards a suspension.
B
3:26
Why did Clayton Kershaw agree to make a commercial where a guy hits a ball so hard off of him that he has to get in a car and drive to catch it?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:26
because he's got a sense of humor?
Pumpsie Green
3:26
Do the Red Sox have the legs to win the division? Seems like their schedule is markedly more difficult from here on out, but while the Rays are close they do have a bit of distance from others in the division.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:28
I don't think it will be a cakewalk but they do have Sale on the way back, and I'd assume they further augment their pitching. I thought the Yankees might at least be set up for a run back to relevance but this outbreak probably seals their fate for 2021, which leaves one less team for Boston to fend off.
3:29
folks, i have to pack it in right now. thanks for your questions, I'm sorry that I can't get to more, but hopefully we'll get another shot at this next week. Until then, please stay safe!
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