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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat -7/18/19
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
Eppler
12:02
Have you met Tim Mead? Any first impressions?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:03
I have not, but i'm hoping to this weekend. I have heard nothing but great things about him in his capacity with the Angels, and I hope that translates to his work at the Hall, but i have no idea where he stands on some of the issues I hold dear as compared to his predecessor. (Hmmm, that gives me an idea...)
Guest
12:05
Wow, I just looked at Xander Boegarts' DRS numbers and he has been worst in baseball bad every year by a wide margin. Any idea what's going on here? UZR thinks he's neutral.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:09
Woof, -14 DRS compared to 0.4 UZR, and a similar contrast last year. First and foremost, let's remember that UZR specifically does not account for shifts (which are plays made out of zone), and also has a lot of regression built into it.  The Red Sox have yielded a .307 wOBA on shifts, the 8th-worst in MLB. So maybe some of it is that. And some of it must be range, but I'm not totally sure.
Just for FanGraphs
12:09
I was reading a BBC article on Instagram because I saw Mike Trout’s name, and was happy to see you quoted heavily as an expert on Mike Trout’s accomplishments.  How much attention do you think baseball will have in Europe thanks to the London games
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
Yes, I spoke to BBC Sports' North American correspondent Anthony Zurcher for that piece (https://www.bbc.com/sport/baseball/48894773). I'm sure the London series improved MLB's standing in Europe, though the high-scoring weirdness and length of those games may not have given viewers the best picture of the game. It's certainly a market worth pursuing, so it will be interesting to see where MLB goes with this. A game in Italy next year? Or Germany? Or back to London? I don't know
Dave in London
12:12
Are analysts really misreading the trade market for Ian Kennedy? Kennedy is owed about $5 million for this season and $14.6 million for 2020. Even if the small-market Royals somehow manage to absorb half of what he’s owed ($9 million) in a trade, what team is going to take on a $10 million salary in 2020 for a player who’s likely to be a middle reliever?

https://www.royalsreview.com/2019/7/17/20696903/ian-kennedys-trade-val...
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:15
Even given my historical, um, lack of affinity for Kennedy dating to his Yankees tenure and his intentional drillings against the Dodgers (something I'll never support for a player on any team), I don't think he's that appealing, but I guess he's a plausible option for closing now, and $10 million isn't an unreasonable expenditure for a team thats running an actual payroll.
Bo
12:16
Is there anyone mentioned in the Trade Value series that was surprising when you saw where they ranked?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:19
I'm surprised Carlos Correa has fallen from 5th to 45th in one year while having a MUCH better season with the bat, but I guess the injuries, even the fluky ones, have had an impact. Likewise for Corey Seager falling from 47 to 13.

I'm of course still rather mystified how it all fell apart for Jose Ramirez, but the drop from 1st to 33rd doesn't itself seem an unreasonable response in light of that.
12:23
There will be a brief pause as I manage my just-arrived sandwich for additional toppings.
Harry
12:24
Do you think Carlos Martinez gets back into the Cardinals' rotation this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
it doesn't sound like it's in the cards (haha), particularly given the loss of Jordan Hicks, the time it would take to build Martinez up, and the questions about his durability that have brought them to this point in the first place.
Scuffy McGee
12:28
You wrote a piece awhile back on 2 way players. Michael Lorenzen was featured in that piece, but up to this point in the season he has very few plate appearances. What changed for him
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:33
I'm not totally sure, but i think it's what's happened for other Reds that's the real issue. Nick Senzel has hit well as their center fielder, and with Eugenio Suarez and Derek Dietrich doing well at the two positions where he could move to with a Lorenzen entry (though Dietrich's 2B work has always been somewhat suspect), the move may have less appeal. I'd still love to see more, but yeah, I expected more than 12 PA total and 15 defensive innings at CF to this point.
12:34
Maybe it's just one of those things where a rookie manager (David Bell) has caved to the pressures of conformity. I don't know.
12:35
but hey, Jared Walsh has pitched three times!
Kristen
12:36
What should/can TEX do about the hugely disappointing Odor/Mazara?  Odor can't be optioned and has a large contract for minimal production.  Mazara only has 2 years of control left so not much appeal there either.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:39
I've heard that they're giving consideration to sending Mazara down, which makes sense given his 86 wRC+ and 0.0 WAR. He's just never been able to get away from that high groundball rate, which means fewer opportunities to tap into that light-tower power.
12:41
As for Odor, well, now really isn't the time to ask for a time machine via which they can choose to keep Jurickson Profar instead, since he's struggling in Oakland. But man, he's stunk for two seasons out of the last three. He might be a change of scenery candidate, but to get him you'd probably have to take on equivalent dead money.
Nelson
12:41
How many HOFers on average play in each All-star game? Have you looked at which one had the most?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
I don't know the average but I think the high is 19 from 1966. I've never studied it closely. Maybe one of these years...
WisconsinRev
12:43
The Tigers have -0.8 total for position player WAR and the Orioles have +0.1.... I can't find a good way to search for this but I am guessing a single team to finish with negative position player WAR is rare? And this year there might be two (especially if Mancini is traded)? Or is this 'grade of futility' not what WAR is most useful for?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
The lowest team position player WAR for a post-1960 season is -9.7 by the 1979 A's, and there are 20 teams from that period below 0.0. You can see here, and adjust the dates all the way back to 1871: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0...
Sam
12:45
Does it look like either games will played in the Bronx today?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
I'm not in the Bronx, but it's not looking good. I actually had a ticket to tonight's game that I had to unload on a friend due to my aforementioned plans. Feel sorry for her.
Ben
12:47
With the anniversary of his perfect game, curious as to your thoughts on Cone's past chances at the HOF, and why he didn't make it
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
Cone didn't get to 3,000 innings or 200 wins, and he came up for consideration in 2009, 18 years after the last non-300 win starter (Fergie Jenkins) had been elected. Given that, he never really had much of a chance at election. While I can make a case for him, I don't know that it's stronger than one for, say, Saberhagen or Stieb or Tiant or Hershiser or Kevin Brown or... you get it.
12:53
Funny story about that game. I and two of my best friends who are all part of our Yankees partial season ticket group (est'd 1998, and still going) went to see Eyes Wide Shut while our fourth in the group, my friend Julie, went with her roommate, a non-fan whose last game had been ... David Wells' perfect game in 1998.

I've still never attended a no-hitter or perfect game.
Dave
12:53
Cubs-Cards are London 2020
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
Thanks. I must have missed that announcement
12:54
or forgotten it.
Robbie
12:54
Robbie Ray went 6 IP, gave up 4 ER, and got 7 SO. In his defense, he spent a lot of time sitting on the bench while the D-backs offense scored 16,000 runs against the Rangers. Shouldn't have hurt his trade value too much, right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:56
any scout or exec who would be swayed by a pitchers' raw stat line on a 94 degree night in Arlington is an idjit.
Gaslamp Gary
12:57
Who will throw the first Padres no-hitter? Chris Paddack? MacKenzie Gore? Chris Paddack Jr.? Fernando Tatis III?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:59
Randy Jones IV, or a son of one of Steve Garvey's illegitimate offspring.
Guest
12:59
Is John Sterling ok? :(
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:01
He's 81 years old and still holding down a demanding job that involves travel and a lot of concentration — it's a draining job for a person of any age. I have no insight as to whether he's got bigger issues than that; I hope not. Even if he's not my favorite announcer, I've grown fond of his eccentricities and enjoy the familiarity, especially when I encounter him and Suzyn broadcasting a game while we're stuck in a car (which is rare, as I don't own one).
Al Gone Quinn
1:02
Trout report: this last week he passed Miguel Cabrera in career fWAR. He is also now in 3rd place in career WRC+ rate behind only Babe Ruth and Ted Williams.
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