JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat -7/18/19

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat -7/18/19

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Jay Jaffe

1:03

Dayum. Still got a couple months before he passes Griffey for 5th in JAWS, the slacker. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_CF.shtml

gabriel

1:03

What is the latest a player can emerge and still have a chance of making the Hall? Has anyone not been a star at 27 and had a HoF career?

Jay Jaffe

1:05

Edgar Martinez didn't secure a regular job until 27, didn't make his first All-Star team until 29, and he'll be on the dais in Cooperstown this weekend. Dazzy Vance had only 11 MLB appearances and numerous injuries before taking the NL by storm at age 31; he led the league in strikeouts for seven straight seasons and pitched until 44. Hoyt Wilhlem didn't debut until he was 98 days short of his 30th birthday, and pitched until he was almost 50.

Rick

1:05

Why does it seem that the Brewers refuse to add quality starting pitching to their rotation? Is it because they believe in their staff that much? Or are they trying and failing?

Jay Jaffe

1:13

I think the Brewers still believe in their stock of young arms but there have been growing pains, and way too much faith in the recovery of Jimmy Nelson. and they need help if they're going to make it back to the postseason. They're often mentioned in connection with trade candidate arms (such as Wheeler, Syndergaard, Bumgarner) but that may just be good PR on their part.

The real question is what they're willing to give up in exchange, and I imagine they don't want to part with Hiura or Dubon, whom you figure teams would be asking about.

Tom

1:13

Is Ramon Laureano legit? or has it just been a hot streak?

Jay Jaffe

1:15

His power output (19 HR, .50 1 SLG) is far beyond the 40 FV grade he had for game power circa 2017, ain't it? He's another guy whose GB/FB has crossed the divide; he went from 1.38 last year to 0.88 this year, and given the rabbit ball, that higher fly ball rate pays big dividends.

Guest

1:16

In regards to your article on Cervelli and concussions - is Clint Frazier now always going to be seen as an injury risk? It seems that once you get one concussion, it gets easier to get another.

Jay Jaffe

1:19

Alas, it's true that concussions make one more susceptible to future problems (not just concussions but post-concussion symptoms, etc). But that's just part of the reason why Frazier, who hasn't played more than 119 games in a season since 2015, might be labeled an injury risk. Hopefully he can demonstrate robust health going forward; that's the only way he can really shed the tag.

The Cubs Might Still Be Okay

1:20

Do you believe in Garrett Cooper? Do you believe the Marlins should and will sell high on Cooper? Could you give an estimate on his price tag?

Jay Jaffe

1:23

I'm not a huge believer, and would consider selling high. He didn't crack our Trade Value list even at honorable mention, but with 4 years of club control remaining beyond 2019, should bring back something of value. Ain't gonna be a game-changer, though, unless the Marlins get lucky

Just for FanGraphs

1:23

Have you gotten invested in any baseball shows? I have heard good things about Brockmire, but have always been partial to anime for my TV baseball fill (those Japanese sure are passionate about the sport)

Jay Jaffe

1:24

I love Brockmire, it's dark and filthy and funny as hell. I know nothing about anime, let alone any anime-baseball crossovers.

Sean

1:24

Any guess who will top the Trade Value list?

Jay Jaffe

1:24

I've seen the list, so it wouldn't be a guess. And it's not my party, so I'm not saying anything beyond that, except ZOMG I can't believe Yasiel Puig's bat flips and bare biceps outdid Trout et al even with 2 months remaining before free agency!!!

Joyner

1:28

Would you rather see an MLB team in London or Mexico City?

Jay Jaffe

1:29

London, mainly because i don't think we need more baseball at high altitude, and there are increased security risks with having a team in Mexico.

Jaf Jayfe

1:29

Johan Santana is a Hall of Famer to me. Undoubtedly the best pitcher in the game for a half decade or more, five straight top five Cy Young finishes (including winning twice), four All Star nods, averaged 4.1 bWAR in seasons in which he threw a single pitch, lead the league three times apiece in ERA, FIP and Ks, and of the seasons where he had 100 IP (so excluding 2000 and 2001, his first two years in MLB) he only had an ERA higher than 3.33 in his final season in 2012. Think he gets in eventually?

Jay Jaffe

1:32

Probably not. Guys who fall off the ballot immediately via the 5% rule just don't get to the head of the Era Committee lines, and we have yet to see one elected. The prevailing perception that Santana's career was too short will be difficult to overcome no matter how many advanced metrics suggest he's a 21st century Koufax analogue.

On that note, I do have an idea about JAWS and pitcher workloads that I'm going to explore in the coming weeks and months. Can't promise it will yield anything I'm going to implement immediately, but I'm excited to futz with it and see where it takes me.

Pat's Bat

1:32

The Giants are 2.5 games out of the Wild Card. Buy, sell, or hold? When can we begin to judge Zaidi as a GM?

Jay Jaffe

1:34

If I'm Zaidi, I'm still selling. The need to rebuild the roster is long overdue, and sacrificing significant assets for a shot at a wild card berth is fool's gold. I don't know that we can get a good read on any GM before he's been on the job at least a year and even then it takes much longer than that to get a full read on how he fared.

Ralph Rowdie

1:34

What is the likelihood this is Pete Alonso best-ever season?

Jay Jaffe

1:35

High, given the possibility that we see a return to a less aerodynamic ball by next year.

1:36

Which is hardly a guarantee, but I can't imagine MLB and Rawlings won't take steps in light of so much criticism.

mets fan

1:36

What do you think about Amed Rosario in CF? The bat seems to be coming along and he could probably put on another 30lbs if he moved off SS

Jay Jaffe

1:38

The metrics say he's a lousy shortstop, and so do my own eyes (to the extent that I can watch the Mets, which is the equivalent of slicing onions with a dull knife). By all means, they should give it a shot, though they probably need a whole offseason to do that. Winter ball, spring training, etc.

Guest

1:38

Could Austin Romine start anywhere else? I believe its a contract year for him.

Jay Jaffe

1:39

The guy has a career 61 wRC+, and is at 43 this year, along with 0.1 career WAR in 990 PA. If he's anybody's idea of a starter, they're doing it wrong.

ben

1:39

Within the span of a couple weeks, Callaway tries to have a reporter thrown out of the clubhouse, Vargas threatens physical assault, and BVW throws a chair in a meeting. Evidence of a toxic culture, or is that overstating things?

Jay Jaffe

1:39

The lack of accountability in Queens starts at the top.

The Cubs Are Okay

1:40

What would you do with Ian Happ? He has recently caught fire in Iowa. Do you trade him now for pitching/hitting help or call him up to make up for the lack of production from guys like Almora and Descalso?

Jay Jaffe

1:44

I'd be taking a long look at him if I were the Cubs, given the aforementioned woes you cited. The metrics don't suggest he can survive in CF, but maybe he can help in RF while Heyward plays CF and contribute at 2B as well.

oaktoon

1:45

When will your playoff odds formula ever be updated to reflect real events? A's are now on pace for 90 wins-- their record since May 16 is 36-16, best in baseball. 18 of last 23...Run differential projected to be somewhere in neighborhood of +160-170.. And yet FG claims they will barely be a .500 team rest of season. Huh??

Jay Jaffe

1:48

We have multiple flavors of Playoff Odds. Our standard one is driven by our individual player projections, and what the odds are saying in this case is that they don't project all that well/a lot of players are outdoing theirs, suggesting a high likelihood of regression.

If you click the projection mode tab to "season to date" stats, you simply assume everybody's going to keep doing what they've been doing (good luck with that); via that methodology the A's have a .584 ROS winning percentage and 62.4% odds (compared to 26.8% in the first, which still seems plausible) https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/season-to-date/div

As always, the answer probably lies somewhere between those two extremes. Use both to bracket your expectations.

Jones

1:49

Which will be the most surprising team to miss the playoffs this year?

Jay Jaffe

1:49

Red Sox. I just think the bullpen will be their undoing.

1:51

OK folks, I've reached my pitch count. If you're in NYC, i hope you'll come out to the Bouton tribute tonight, and if you're in Cooperstown, I hope we cross paths. See here for details https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/hall-of-fame-induction-and-bou... and keep an eye out for the 2019 Replacement Level Killers series, which launches on Monday.

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