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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/19/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
Howdy folks, and welcome to today's chat. It's been said in connection with Ted Williams' final game that "Gods do not answer letters" — that's John Updike, in his famous New Yorker piece — but somebody on high has brought us color footage of his final home run and highlights from his final game. Don't miss this: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/19/sports/ted-williams-film-last-game....
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
12:03
Brad Hand and Adam Cimber for Francisco Mejia. Discuss.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:04
I joked on Twitter that the entirety of my analysis beyond recalling that Mejia had a 50-game hitting streak two years ago was Jeff Spicoli saying, "Hola, Mr. Hand"
12:05
That's from Fast Times at Ridgemont High, a staple of my teenage and early adult viewing, and a movie that you damn millennials (stands up from lawn chair and shakes cane) probably know nothing about. Well, rent it on your electric sousamaphones!
12:06
Seriously, Mejia is a very nice get, and as a non-prospect guy I've never heard of Cimber. You're probably better off asking Eric or Kiley about that and about how much catching Mejia will do going forward, though I'd bet the Padres will give him every chance to stick there.
Jkim
12:06
Shouldn't the Dodgers look to trade someone like Toles & obviously Forsythe for bullpen help?

THey'd need to add a prospect to sweeten the deal obviously.

Idk how the trade will work out but I think Oh could be a good addition to their bullpen
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:10
My forthcoming piece today is on the Dodgers' glaring need in the bullpen. I didn't really discuss what they might have to give up, but outfield depth is definitely an area of strength to deal from — as it is, they didn't have to trade top OF prospect Alex Verdugo in the Machado deal and almost certainly won't have to for relief help, but a guy like Toles could be a useful piece. Oh was mentioned among the handful of potential targests; I think they'll pick up two (as they did last year with Cingrani and Watson) and also use some of their rotation surplus to pick up innings down the stretch while curbing usage. Sterling, Buehler, Wood, for as good as they've been, probably can't pitch straight through the end of October out of the rotation if the Dodgers make it that far, so I wouldn't be surprised if they shuffle through the seventh or eighth inning for a spell.
Jay Jiraffe
12:10
Do you see Fowler finishing out his contract in St Louis?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
No, but I also don't see the Cardinals dealing him at the nadir of his value. Maybe he hits well enough the rest of the way to be moved this winter.

Also, my word what a garbage fire Matheny turned into as a manager. If you're as tactically inept as he is,  your Leader-of-Men bullshit can't be as horseshit as his turned out to be. I would be very surprised if he gets another MLB managerial job anytime soon.
v2micca
12:13
If you had to chose one right now, which division do you think will have the most compelling race down the stretch?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:14
They've got clear favorites according to our playoff odds, but I think all of the NL races have the potential to be tight. In the AL, less so but I'd bet the Yankees and Red Sox wind up staying close until the end.
Jay Jiraffe
12:15
Who is the next big domino to be traded after Machado and Hand not having been dealt?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:15
My guess is J.A. Happ, who's probably the top starter available assuming the Mets don't deal deGrom or Syndergaard.
tb.25
12:15
As a writer, when a trade occurs late n the evening, is it nice to then write about it and have your planned-to-publish articles for future use, or a pain to have to write quickly at night?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
It varies, particularly on a staff where there are several writers capable of leading the charge and some of them don't have to wake up to deal with a toddler the next morning. If it's in my lap, I always try to put the breaking news first, but I'm not the guy who can stay up until 3 AM ET writing (Dan) or have the temporal advantage of being on the west coast (Jeff)
Josh
12:18
Will Chase Utley's Hall of Fame voting results utimately help or hurt individuals like Lou Whitaker, Tony Oliva, Dick Allen, Minnie Minoso and others with < 2,000 hits?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
Whitaker has 2,369 hits, so I think it must be Bobby Grich (1,833 hits and 8th in JAWS) that you're thinking of. Oliva, Allen and Minoso are all likely to be considered as candidates for the 2021 Golden Days Era Committee ballot, and there's a reasonable chance one of them finally makes it and breaks the logjam, which could help Utley, who becomes eligible in 2024 but is likely to need several years to get to 75%.
Theo
12:22
Should the Cubs look to add starting pitching at the deadline, or just hope Lester doesn't regress and the rest of the staff improves in the second half?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:24
With Darvish on the DL and Chatwood struggling, I would expect that they add a starter and hope that some combination of those two and Montgomery can together fill out one spot the rest of the way
Kevin
12:25
What percentage of questions in the queue have to do with the Machado trade? What about the Hand trade?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:27
Maybe half the questions in the queue are about those deals and their ramifications for other ones. As Not the Prospect Guy, I'm generally not going to hazard a guess about the specifics of who Team X needs to package to get Team Y's big asset.
Jay Jiraffe
12:27
What would it take for the Cubs to get Britton on board? What other viable options for late inning impact relievers are there?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:30
I gave a partial list here. Soria, Familia, Oh and Iglesias are some options. Britton has not really pitched all that well since returning from his Achilles injury, but he has another 10 days or so to recover some of his value. If he can, his history puts him at or near the top of the list. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/after-acquiring-machado-dodgers-need-r...
Jay Jiraffe
12:30
Brewers content to stay put again this year and roll with what they have?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:33
They heavily pursued Machado, so I would imagine that they do something at shortstop, but it won't be on the same scale. Galvis, Asdrubal, Mercer - there's not a lot of obvious candidates out there that's inspiring but I do think the Brewers have the depth (esp OF) and creativity to go after a more controllable piece if they can find a match.
fjtorres
12:34
I'm getting Rincon for Giles flashbacks after hearing of Mejia for Hand & Cimber.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
Ricardo Rincon was a lefty specialist, Hand isn't, and for Mejia to have a career, or at least controllable term, that's as good as Brian Giles' in terms of value is probably a 90th percentile outcome. Could this look that bad in 20 years? Yes. Will it? Odds say no.
Dom
12:39
JT Realmuto has been a monster offensively this year, but the projections have him pegged for a .782 OPS rest of season. What do you expect from him to close out 2018?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
Given that the MLB average for catchers is a .680 OPS, .782 is still a productive hitter for the position, and he offers above-average defense as well. That's gonna be an upgrade for most teams even if he cools off or otherwise wears down.
mlb fan
12:42
what realistic package would it take to acquire Noah Syndergaard if yanks keep everyone on 25 man roster ? is it even possible
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
Realistically, Syndergaard to the Bronx is not happening. Please, move along.
GoMs
12:43
I'd be really interested in the acquisition cost of Dexter Fowler. I think he'd be a big help to the Mariners or Indians.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
he's a great change of scenery candidate but no team is going to take on the remainder of his contract without making the Cardinals eat a great deal of it. And I don't think they're willing to do that, yet.
Derek in Little Rock
12:45
Thoughts on FanGraphs playoff odds having the Nationals as the current favorite to win the NL East down 5.5 games with two teams to overtake?  The discrepancy between this and Baseball Prospectus' model is of course the largest among the projections.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
I've said this for weeks but I think the Nationals' route to the top of the NL East is guys like Harper, Murphy, Turner and Wieters coming around — and I think they will.
brood550
12:48
What do we make of Harper's defensive numbers this season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
partial season defensive metrics should be regarded with caution, especially when they're out of kilter with the rest of a player's recent performance. I do wonder if Harper was losing a larger % of discretionary plays to Taylor than in the past, and also if Bryce spotting in CF is taking its toll both physically and mentally on his game. his 18 games there are already more than he's played in any season since his 2012 rookie campaign.
v2micca
12:53
Loving that you guys are keeping the trade value series going.  I'm wondering, is Trout good enough that even in his walk year he would still crack the top 20?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
That's a question for Kiley. Without giving away too much, I do know that he'll be in the top 5 this year, and that's with a year less control than anybody else in that group.
Moltar
12:55
I rewatched it not that long ago, and man Fast Times has aged terribly. Spiccoli is still good for some laughs but other that that, woof
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