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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat -7/21/20
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:03
Good afternoon, and welcome to my almost-Opening Day chat. As I'll be part of a group chat later this week (Dodgers-Giants, 10 ET on Thursday night), I'm going to work a bit short here.
First a bit of housekeeping while the queue fills...  My latest piece on the Blue Jays' quest to find a temporary new home, is here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-blue-jays-are-in-search-of-a-temporary...
2:04
A very cool thing that Dan wrote about the odds that somebody hits .400 in this short season is here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/toppling-ted-the-60-game-season-and-the-40...
And a very cool thing that Sean and Dave did behind the scenes, showing the best 60-game stretches in a variety of categories since 1974, is here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/whats-the-best-that-could-happ...
2:06
Via that last one, did you know George Brett had a 60-game stretch in 1980 when he hit .473/.522/.751 (the record for batting average in that span)? You do now. Some guy named Barry holds the records for the other two metrics.
and now, onward...
Dodger fan
2:06
Gavin lux is starting the season in the minors. It feels risky to do service time manipulation in such a short season. Can Taylor/Hernandez hit righties well enough? or will second be a weakness until lux is called up?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:08
I was just talking about this on Twitter with Mike Petriello, Jon Weisman, and some other Dodger fans. While I don't think we can entirely dismiss the possibility that service time issues are in play here, the fact is that Lux didn't report to camp until July 10 for "undisclosed reasons," and he reportedly has had some mishaps on both sides of the ball (see R.J. Anderson here https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/dodgers-option-top-prospect-gavin-l...). That the Dodgers have Kiké Hernandez, Chris Taylor, and Max Muncy to cover until Lux comes around is also worth noting.
Gaslamp Gary
2:08
Each game in 2020 will mean 2.7 games in a normal season. Will we see quicker hooks and stranger lineups like we do in the postseason? it's really a sprint this year
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:10
Because of the short ramp-up during Spring Training 2.0, not to mention the larger pitching staffs, I think we'll see a lot of shorter outings from starters in the early going, because they haven't had as long to build up their pitch counts and because managers might want to try to spread the work around and get everybody some game action as soon as they can.
the larger roster sizes may lead to more platooning as well, and we could perhaps see the occasional "line change" when a pitcher of the opposite hand comes in, like the Dodgers often used during the 2018 NLCS against the Brewers.
Gaslamp Gary
2:12
What if a peak, healthy Garrett Richards is the Padres' third-best starting pitcher?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:13
it probably bodes well for the Padres, but given as he's tied with Dinelson Lamet for the second-highest WAR projection among Padres starters (0.9) behind Chris Paddack (1.2), it's not gonna be earthshaking. I do hope he has a great season, as that guy has been sidetracked by injuries seemingly forever
BD
2:14
Howie Kendrick has had 2.5 amazing seasons in a row, at presumably the twilight of his career.   He was always a major prospect.  Is this a "launch angle" type switch, to get so muich better, this late in his career?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:16
I do think that's part of it. Via his Statcast page (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/howie-kendrick-435062?sta...) he's increased his average launch angle from the 0.6 to 1.4 range in 2015-17 to 10.6 last year. I suspect he's also seeing a greater share of left-handed pitching now that he's no longer playing every day, but i haven't crunched the numbers to confirm that
WinTwins0410
2:17
Jay, a question on Orel Hershiser: With Jack Morris now in the HoF, is there a more compelling Hall case for the Bulldog?  3 All-Star teams, but also, his World Series appearances and other aspects (record scoreless innings, etc.). From your writing at SI, I know you weren’t sold on him in the past — has your own view on Hershiser changed at all?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:20
If Jack Morris is the standard by which we're judging pitchers then there is a boatload of his contemporaries that are Hallworthy, guys like Hershiser, Cone, Stieb, Saberhagen, Gooden, Appier and Finley. Now, I wouldn't put all of those guys in, and in fact each one of them has significant dings in his case, which is a reminder that we shouldn't take a lowest common denominator approach to choosing HOFers.

Of that group, I'd probably put Hershiser and Stieb at the head of the line, with Orel's 1988 postseason and even his work in 1995 (ALCS MVP) weighing heavily.
David
2:20
What do you think of Johan Santana’s hall of fame case? Will voters have to rethink pitching benchmarks to reflect the way modern starters are used?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:23
This connects to what I wrote in the previous question, but if there's ever a paradigm shift in reckoning with what we might call the workload constraint era, Santana is right there in the thick of things, given his 2 Cy Youngs and the highest seven-year peak (45.0) of anybody I've named (Stieb's 44.4 is tops from the previous group).
Daro
2:23
With only 60 games to play, will teams really prefer an extra year of control over a player than actually being competitive?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
I think some of the calculus that goes into service time decisions this year has to do with the nonzero possibility that the season gets shut down early, in which case the service time denominator isn't 67 days, it might be much less. The Athletic's Andrew Baggarly wrote about this in the context of Joey Bart, using an (admittedly extreme and very dark) example where a three-day season would give him credit for a full year of service time https://theathletic.com/1933510/2020/07/16/the-real-reason-that-joey-b...
David
2:25
if there was a COVID outbreak and the season had to be stopped 1 or 2 weeks in would the stats for the season count?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
I believe that they would. With the exception of rainouts that failed to go 5 innings, MLB has never been in the business of wiping out stats, much to the chagrin of the pitchfork-wielding mob when it comes to certain players.

Side note: one of this year's new rules is that any game that's forced into a delay, such as for rain, can be suspended and resumed at another date.
Scott
2:27
Thoughts on Daniel Bard's return to the majors after a seven-year absence?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
I've always had a soft spot for any player who goes through the yips, dating back to being confounded by Steve Sax as a Dodgers fan when I was young. I am so, so hopeful that Bard pulls it off. It's a remarkable story, and everything I've heard about the guy is positive.
MikeD
2:29
Both Jordan Montgomery and Mike King have shown increased velocity during Spring Training and Summer Camp. Would this elevate either of them projection wise?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:30
I'd caution against getting too jazzed about velo readings in the closed setting of intrasquad games. If either of them carries and maintains higher velo into the season, then it might be something that improves their outlooks, but beware the command difficulties and higher injury risk that can come with higher velo
Appa Yip Yip
2:30
If the Blue Jays make the playoffs they deserve extra credit for couchsurfing all season
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:30
Hell yes.
#boycott
2:30
Of all the very very silly things, what level of silly is yet another nonsense outrage about kneeling? there aren't even any fans.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
The culture war, alas, is never ending, and there will always be somebody around to provide a bad faith reading of any gesture of protest. That this particular one touches upon the hot-button issue of race increases that likelihood exponentially.

I wish the entire custom of playing the national anthem would disappear from sports  I absolutely try to avoid it when I'm at a game, either for work or recreation. I'll walk around the concourse, or visit the restroom or the concession stand.
Homer Thompson
2:35
In your Blue Jays piece you mention how this situation will be a good control for testing home field advantage. One thing that has always confused me about people talking about whether or not home field advantage exists/helps is, isn't there an inherent home field advantage in batting second? Especially in late game situations. Any good pieces that look over that topic that you recommend?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:37
Offhand I'm not sure who's studied it but check out that Swartz series, and google Russell Carleton on the topic, too.
thebighen
2:37
Not even sure how to frame the question but any recollection of another situation like Jed Lowrie over the years?  Basically 2 full seasons of "his knee/side is bothering him" but we have no updates and he just isn't going to play.  A bizarre scenario all around.  Maybe BVW should have a rule not to make transactions involving former clients.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
Well, there's Jacoby Ellsbury...
Can you believe this idiot praised the Lowrie signing? https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jed-lowrie-joins-mets-overcrowded-infield/
2:40
I think BVW's preference for his former clients has been a real problem. There's a lot of concern with Robinson Cano, who's taking up a good chunk of payroll through 2023, and the Edwin Diaz deal doesn't look so hot these days.
WinTwins0410
2:41
Jay, what are your thoughts on Keith Hernandez? Should he be in the Hall? And will he eventually make his way onto a small committee ballot, do you think?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:45
I wrote about him in The Cooperstown Casebook. The short version is that I'm open to the idea that he should be in, given his glove and his importance to the St. Louis and New York championship teams, but I also realize he's a borderline case, and from that era I'd put Grich, Whitaker, Evans, and Munson ahead of him. I think he'll get on a ballot eventually, but it's a very crowded era, and his maxing out at 10.8% with nine tries on the ballot surely works agianst him.
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