You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat -7/21/20
powered byJotCast
Prev Page View Full Chat
Mike Ortman
2:45
Hey Jay! When do you think they will roll out a name change in Cleveland? During the off season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:46
That would be my best guess. I think the regular season is fraught enough, and if they're not just going to go with the Spiders (my knee-jerk suggestion), then they ought to do a real process which might include some fan input as well as expert research and advice.
MikeD
2:46
Do you expect David Ortiz to be elected to the HOF, and if he is, will that change the election chances of players who have had some connection to PEDs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:52
I expect he will be elected, though not necessarily on the first ballot, and probably without my vote, as he doesn't fare all that well in JAWS.

As for the PED issue, my "Wild West" rule — not holding any pre-testing-and-suspension era infractions against a player, including survey tests — wouldn't stop me on Ortiz, and it's worth noting that Manfred all but exonerated him with his public declaration that a number of survey test positives would have been contested (a caveat that should apply to Sosa as well, except he doesn't get the same kind of love from the powers that be).

Will the candidacy of Ortiz change minds with regards to Bonds and Clemens? I guess we'll find out whether voters see the cognitive dissonance in selecting him but not the far more qualified pair, as his first year on the ballot will be their last. I'm not holding my breath.
Harry
2:52
Is Addison Russell effectively banned from MLB?   Disgusting actions but he is still only 26.   I wonder if someone would take a shot on him.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
Somebody did, halfway around the world: he signed a 1-year deal with the KBO Kiwoom Heroes, but he has yet to debut. As to whether he'll ever get another MLB job, well, it's worth noting that his performance deteriorated on both sides of the ball; he went from being an OK-for-a-shortstop hitter to being a bad one, and his defense descended towards average. Add that to the DV history and the way he handled the allegations and you can understand why most teams would say, nah.
NotGraphs Revivalist
2:55
Does the Matt Adams signing preclude the Braves from signing Puig once he has tested negative?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
So long as they have room in their 60-man pool they can revisit the Puig deal but I suspect they will have moved on
Hall of fame fan
2:56
I was looking at some of the best non hall of Famers on jaws and someone named bill dahlen showed up. Apparently he’s a shortstop from 120 years ago. Should he be in the hall of fame? The numbers seem to say yes but no one alive has seen him play
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
Dahlen might be the best of the Early Baseball candidates. He was a colorful character who was damn good on both sides of the ball, and he's 11th in JAWS, sandwiched between Trammell and Larkin, with Ozzie and Jeter two rungs removed in either direction. I wrote about him a few years ago https://www.si.com/mlb/2015/12/02/hall-of-fame-pre-integration-era-bal... and would vote for him if given the chance.
Sirras
2:59
Will FG be doing a retrospective/recap of projections vs actual for the PPR?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
Not in any systematic fashion, at least that I know of. Those things are a bloody ordeal to write; i personally jam crayons up my nose in the hope of finding the spot in my brain that remembers doing so each year —and wiping it out.
Thom Homerson
3:00
Re: your article on deGrom yesterday: beyond the minor league depth in their pool, do you think there's any chance they'd stretch out Lugo or Gsellman if need be? Especially if Diaz and Familia are solid and Betances is healthy? Seems like another decent potential option if they're in the race and Jordan Humphreys is next man up...
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:04
Beyond the fact that Gsellman's triceps tightness may rule him out from anything for a bit, I think it's a real challenge to stretch out a guy without sending him down to the minors because of the effect it has on the rest of the staff, which isn't an option this year. I suppose you could do an opener/tandem-type arrangement to build a guy up as a starter and it would be easier with the larger staff than in years past but  I haven't seen anybody report that the Mets will revisit Lugo as a starter but The Athletic reported that he might absorb some of the extra innings left on the table by short-working starters.
YardGoat
3:04
How are you doing Jay? Make any particularly delicious lunches lately?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
I'm doing all right, thanks. Lunch has been interesting lately, as the Doner Kebab place down the street, where I have generally eaten 2x/week (usually falafel or chicken) is open for takeout again and I also ordered a frozen dumpling kit from Xi'an Famous Foods (https://xiankits.com/) and wow, that's been great.

I do think one lesson from the pandemic is that I should be making lunch at home more often, though, and so figuring out how to do that without getting too tired of the same deli meat (usually Boar's Head Cracked Pepper Smoked Turkey, which has less tendency to get slimy) or letting the bread get moldy will be important.

This has been LunchGraphs.com
Lorenzo
3:07
Doesn't it suck that the Nats can't have a true celebration with their fans?  By the time it's safe to do so, there will be another champion (or maybe more?) to celebrate as well.  What, if anything, can the Nats plan?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
It sucks, but in the grand scheme of things it's far down the list of Things That Suck in 2020, and hey, didn't they get a parade last fall when they won? The banner raising and the ring presentation are kind of secondary to that, which itself is secondary to the actual winning of the World Series.
Mike Ortman
3:09
So far I have found that I have many things in common with you, but I guess the Field of Dreams is not one of them. Two questions: are you at all concerned that James Earl Jones is also Darth Vader and that could not bode well for you? And what are your favorite baseball movies?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
I found JEJ more convincing as Darth's voice than I did as the FoD character, particularly because the latter movie never confronts the matter of race (and the change of his character from white in Kinsella's book to Black on the screen) in its romanticization of Old Timey Baseball, which, after all, was segregated.
Dodger fan
3:12
Do you think May gets into the rotation this year? If yes will he replace stripling or wood?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:16
Price opting out almost certainly raises the likelihood that May gets innings as a starter; we have him down for 38 in that capacity, same as Stripling (Wood at 55). Barring injuries (ha!) I'd guess that he'd absorb some innings from both of those guys, and Urias, who's getting his first shot at starting. I could see May taking spot starts for all those guys when they need a breather, then joining the rotation if one of them is flagging or anybody gets hurt.

Bottom line, Dustin May is a land of contrasts.
Gaslamp Gary
3:16
Can the Padres "bullpen" their way to the playoffs without a good offense or deep rotation?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:18
We have them ninth in our starter depth charts and 5th in our Reliever depth charts, so I don't think pitching is their biggest problem. I think a lineup where only Tatis, Pham, Machado and Grisham project to be league average or better in terms of wRC+ is the bigger problem.
Gaslamp Gary
3:19
Ok, I am trying to convince people that this year's champion wont have an asterisk next to it. When you boil it down, the playoffs wont be any different besides fans. The shortened season will be over. Any tips for a stronger argument?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:21
The year 2020 is a goddamn ordeal at every turn. We all deserve gold medals for surviving it without cracking open each other's skulls and feasting on the goo inside, though it ain't over, so let's hold off on handing those out. Anybody who thinks less of whoever wins the World Series — after running a comparably-sized postseason gauntlet — than the average winner can eat a bowl of asterisks.
Steve Nebraska
3:22
I've been looking at the awards prognostications and seen no mentions anywhere for Spencer Howard and was really surprised... Any thoughts?  It seems everyone's choice, Lux, is not going to be the winner now.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:24
Howard is a very interesting prospect but he has just 30.2 innings above A-ball, so I suspect a lot of people either haven't seen him or are skeptical that 2020 is going to be his year.
Yada
3:24
Does Bernie Williams have any shot at getting into the HOF on a committee backdoor?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:25
Pretty low, I think, but not impossible. I would guess that his Gold Gloves are more likely to overshadow his brutal defensive metrics in that context than elsewhere, but fizzling out in the mid-30s rarely leads to a plaque in Cooperstown.
C M Keller
3:26
The Early Baseball committee meets this year - I just discovered Pete Browning in an old baseball facts book. Do you think he gets serious consideration, and what do you think has kept him out this long? His stats look impressive, and he has the "pioneer" thing going for him, having been responsible for Louisville Slugger bats.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:29
I think the short career (5,315 PA, about 1,400 fewer than, say, Sam Thompson) and the fact that he did his best work — won all three of his batting titles — in leagues besides the NL (American Association and Players League) probably work against him. I honestly have never thought that hard about him as a candidate. Might be worth reconsidering.
3:30
ok folks, I'm going to call it right here as I'm on a compressed schedule today. Thanks so much for stopping by, and if you're in the chatting mood, stop by sometime on Thursday or Friday when we'll be doing group chats with several FanGraphs writers at a time.
Until then, please stay safe, and don't overwork your arm, we might need you for a few innings later this week.
Connecting…